BLOGS

Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis

Monday, 20 June 2022

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It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review.

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

The review was conducted with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (no suggested options)
  • Suggested Win bets only using BOB
  • 2 unit bets for all Best Meeting Win bets
  • 1 unit bets for all Race Win bets

 

Total Meetings Reviewed – 21

 

Meeting Best Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 14

Wins: 5

Strike Rate: 36%

Turnover: 28u

Return: 40.2u

P/L: +12.2u

POT: +44%

 

Race Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 45

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 29%

Turnover: 45u

Return: 59u

P/L: +14u

POT: +31%

 

Combined Results

 

Bets: 59

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 31%

Turnover: 73u

Return: 99.3u

P/L: +26.3u

POT: +36%

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

Top 4 Rating Results

 

The results below show the percentage of winners found in the Top 4 rated horses for each race with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June 
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (always low confidence on Heavy tracks)
  • Speed Data Quality level ignored
  • Includes races with equal rated horses

 

All Results (174 Races)

 

Top 1: 25%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 58%

 

April Results (60 Races)

 

Top 1: 22%

Top 2: 35%

Top 3: 55%

Top 4: 60%

 

May Results (79 Races)

 

Top 1: 27%

Top 2: 44%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 57%

 

June Results (35 Races)

 

Top 1: 29%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 51%

Top 4: 57%

 

Conclusion

 

The results of the Meeting Best Win and Race Win suggested betting options have been performing well and will become more of a focus from now on, with Place and Lay bet options removed.

Winners from the Top 4 rated have been ok and have room for improvement. The ratings are based solely on the Speed Rating I assign to each horse and this process continues to evolve. I expect to see these figures rise over the next few months.

After looking at all suggested bet options, I have decided that the E/W, Place and Lay options are not something I will continue with moving forward so they have been excluded from the review. I will note future changes at the end of the review.

 

Race Assessment Changes

 

As previously mentioned, I will be focusing on Win options only from now on and will include a brief explanation for each Race Win option suggested.

 

Cheers,

 

Mat

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

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BLOGS

Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis

Monday, 20 June 2022

Share post on

It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review.

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

The review was conducted with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (no suggested options)
  • Suggested Win bets only using BOB
  • 2 unit bets for all Best Meeting Win bets
  • 1 unit bets for all Race Win bets

 

Total Meetings Reviewed – 21

 

Meeting Best Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 14

Wins: 5

Strike Rate: 36%

Turnover: 28u

Return: 40.2u

P/L: +12.2u

POT: +44%

 

Race Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 45

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 29%

Turnover: 45u

Return: 59u

P/L: +14u

POT: +31%

 

Combined Results

 

Bets: 59

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 31%

Turnover: 73u

Return: 99.3u

P/L: +26.3u

POT: +36%

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

Top 4 Rating Results

 

The results below show the percentage of winners found in the Top 4 rated horses for each race with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June 
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (always low confidence on Heavy tracks)
  • Speed Data Quality level ignored
  • Includes races with equal rated horses

 

All Results (174 Races)

 

Top 1: 25%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 58%

 

April Results (60 Races)

 

Top 1: 22%

Top 2: 35%

Top 3: 55%

Top 4: 60%

 

May Results (79 Races)

 

Top 1: 27%

Top 2: 44%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 57%

 

June Results (35 Races)

 

Top 1: 29%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 51%

Top 4: 57%

 

Conclusion

 

The results of the Meeting Best Win and Race Win suggested betting options have been performing well and will become more of a focus from now on, with Place and Lay bet options removed.

Winners from the Top 4 rated have been ok and have room for improvement. The ratings are based solely on the Speed Rating I assign to each horse and this process continues to evolve. I expect to see these figures rise over the next few months.

After looking at all suggested bet options, I have decided that the E/W, Place and Lay options are not something I will continue with moving forward so they have been excluded from the review. I will note future changes at the end of the review.

 

Race Assessment Changes

 

As previously mentioned, I will be focusing on Win options only from now on and will include a brief explanation for each Race Win option suggested.

 

Cheers,

 

Mat

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

Related Posts

Friday, August 5, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments - Flemington 06 August 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments - Eagle Farm 30 July 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Saturday, July 23, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments - Caulfield 23 July 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Friday, July 15, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments - Flemington 16 July 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Saturday, July 2, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments - Flemington 02 July 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea