BLOGS

Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis

Monday, 20 June 2022

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It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review.

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

The review was conducted with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (no suggested options)
  • Suggested Win bets only using BOB
  • 2 unit bets for all Best Meeting Win bets
  • 1 unit bets for all Race Win bets

 

Total Meetings Reviewed – 21

 

Meeting Best Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 14

Wins: 5

Strike Rate: 36%

Turnover: 28u

Return: 40.2u

P/L: +12.2u

POT: +44%

 

Race Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 45

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 29%

Turnover: 45u

Return: 59u

P/L: +14u

POT: +31%

 

Combined Results

 

Bets: 59

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 31%

Turnover: 73u

Return: 99.3u

P/L: +26.3u

POT: +36%

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

Top 4 Rating Results

 

The results below show the percentage of winners found in the Top 4 rated horses for each race with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June 
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (always low confidence on Heavy tracks)
  • Speed Data Quality level ignored
  • Includes races with equal rated horses

 

All Results (174 Races)

 

Top 1: 25%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 58%

 

April Results (60 Races)

 

Top 1: 22%

Top 2: 35%

Top 3: 55%

Top 4: 60%

 

May Results (79 Races)

 

Top 1: 27%

Top 2: 44%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 57%

 

June Results (35 Races)

 

Top 1: 29%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 51%

Top 4: 57%

 

Conclusion

 

The results of the Meeting Best Win and Race Win suggested betting options have been performing well and will become more of a focus from now on, with Place and Lay bet options removed.

Winners from the Top 4 rated have been ok and have room for improvement. The ratings are based solely on the Speed Rating I assign to each horse and this process continues to evolve. I expect to see these figures rise over the next few months.

After looking at all suggested bet options, I have decided that the E/W, Place and Lay options are not something I will continue with moving forward so they have been excluded from the review. I will note future changes at the end of the review.

 

Race Assessment Changes

 

As previously mentioned, I will be focusing on Win options only from now on and will include a brief explanation for each Race Win option suggested.

 

Cheers,

 

Mat

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

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BLOGS

Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis

Monday, 20 June 2022

Share post on

It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review.

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

The review was conducted with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (no suggested options)
  • Suggested Win bets only using BOB
  • 2 unit bets for all Best Meeting Win bets
  • 1 unit bets for all Race Win bets

 

Total Meetings Reviewed – 21

 

Meeting Best Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 14

Wins: 5

Strike Rate: 36%

Turnover: 28u

Return: 40.2u

P/L: +12.2u

POT: +44%

 

Race Win Bet Results

 

Bets: 45

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 29%

Turnover: 45u

Return: 59u

P/L: +14u

POT: +31%

 

Combined Results

 

Bets: 59

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 31%

Turnover: 73u

Return: 99.3u

P/L: +26.3u

POT: +36%

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

 

Top 4 Rating Results

 

The results below show the percentage of winners found in the Top 4 rated horses for each race with the following points in mind:

  • Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June 
  • Heavy track meetings excluded (always low confidence on Heavy tracks)
  • Speed Data Quality level ignored
  • Includes races with equal rated horses

 

All Results (174 Races)

 

Top 1: 25%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 58%

 

April Results (60 Races)

 

Top 1: 22%

Top 2: 35%

Top 3: 55%

Top 4: 60%

 

May Results (79 Races)

 

Top 1: 27%

Top 2: 44%

Top 3: 53%

Top 4: 57%

 

June Results (35 Races)

 

Top 1: 29%

Top 2: 40%

Top 3: 51%

Top 4: 57%

 

Conclusion

 

The results of the Meeting Best Win and Race Win suggested betting options have been performing well and will become more of a focus from now on, with Place and Lay bet options removed.

Winners from the Top 4 rated have been ok and have room for improvement. The ratings are based solely on the Speed Rating I assign to each horse and this process continues to evolve. I expect to see these figures rise over the next few months.

After looking at all suggested bet options, I have decided that the E/W, Place and Lay options are not something I will continue with moving forward so they have been excluded from the review. I will note future changes at the end of the review.

 

Race Assessment Changes

 

As previously mentioned, I will be focusing on Win options only from now on and will include a brief explanation for each Race Win option suggested.

 

Cheers,

 

Mat

 

Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments

Related Posts

Sunday, June 19, 2022

NBA Tips Season Review

NBA Tips Review Subscribe to NBA Tips  Final tally: +13.9 units 2022 results: +25.1 unitsBiggest drawdown: -11.1 units YOY:2020/2021: 194.2 units invested. +30.5 units profit2021/2022: 249.4 units invested. +13.9 units profitTotal:            452.6 u

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Thursday, May 19, 2022

The Year To Date Results!

Year To Date ResultsWorldwide Tips & Ratings – The Syndicate YTD: + 875.9 units PROFIT (8.5% POT)Overall: + 4,689.5 units PROFIT (8.2% POT)A massive year so far!Highlights so far in 2022 includes Global Gold $251, Cleopatras Charge $72.02, Western Ki

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Q&A with an NRL Lines modeller

Below is a Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett.Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.My name is David Barrett. I am an engineer with a university educated mathematical background. I am what most people would refer to as a numbers pe