Membership Options

WA TIPS & RATINGS - CAMERON O'BRIEN

Full-time professional punter Cameron O'Brien provides his tips & full ratings for WA.

With his father responsible for the Victorian weight & class tables and ratings for Don Scott's classic betting bible 'The Winning Way', Cameron was bred to be a pro punter,

Not only does Cameron have a punting pedigree, he was also taught by some the best in the business.

Before going out on his own, he has worked for the likes of industry veterans Mark Read and Gerard Twomey (Iasbet).

As a result, his success story reaches to raise a family of five children, all from his punting profits – impressive!

Cameron can be described a “flat track bully”. He knows what works and has found his niche working the WA market with his ratings system. It’s a proven 'cash cow' and he knows the inner workings of the state like the back of his hand due to an isolated, steady and limited pool of horses, trainers, jockeys, and tracks that are virtually always dry.

It means Cameron has a distinct advantage. His accurate ratings can generate exceptional profits because he works on a stable environment with less variables and biases.

Note that during the wet winter months just at the Belmont track (August/September), Cam will be providing tips & ratings for Brisbane Metro races on dry tracks instead. But all other WA meetings will be covered as usual.

So that's exactly what Cameron does.

Cameron O'Brien is a highly respected full time professional punter. WA Tips & Ratings members receive: 

  • Double the value: A true set and forget service with tips sent each WA Metro or Provincial raceday to place as advised.
  • Set Release time for all bets: AEST 12.30pm (changes to 1pm during Daylight Savings time)
  • Some bets sent early at fixed odds, then potential bets are listed with the recommended price required, that can be placed simply a Betfair SP whilst setting a minimum price
  • Plus at no additional cost Cam's full ratings spreadsheet provided for all Metropolitan and selected Provincial meetings for every runner plus comments to aid those betting throughout the day, available also on Dynamic Odds at no additional cost
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and member voted Odds Recording Methodology. All bets recorded at the recommended fixed price, BOB (Best Tote or Official Top Fluc) or BFSP less commission as advised
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

NBA TIPS

NBA Tips and detailed previews, focusing on Line & Head to Head bets with advised unit staking and odds to take. The analyst had an excellent 2020/2021 season

NFL TIPS

NFL Tips and detailed previews, focusing on Line & Head to Head bets with advised unit staking and odds to take. 

TRIAL SPY

Trial Spy has amassed over $65,000 profit since inception, making it the most profitable horse racing tipping package ever in Australia.

This is the service that revolutionised the approach to trial and jump out analysis.

Selections are based solely on the thorough and advanced analysis and review of Barrier Trials & Jumpouts. Accurate trial sectionals & performance ratings against par times are obtained from a R2W Axis Database, and then calibrated and reassessed based on visual analysis of the trial.

Testament to its longevity & success, the Trial Spy service has over 11,000 bets on public record.

The Trial Spy service covers racing every day and across every track in Australia. Bets are wherever and whenever there’s value to be found from identified runners. But bets are selective, and only advised if and when there’s value available on the day. Tips include the selection, recommended stake (based on a 100u betting bank), recommended bet advice, and a comment on why the selection has been chosen for an investment. 

The package is a thoroughly comprehensive “everything done for you” tipping package. All you need to do is place the bets, enjoy the races, and reap the rewards.

Trial Spy members receive the following:

  • Proven, high quality tips you can back with confidence from professional form analyst Dean Evans
  • Australia's second most profitable tips service in history
  • Selections, including staking and betting advice are sent to you via smartphone app, e-mail and by accessing your exclusive members area
  • Over 11,000 bets on public record
  • Outstanding customer support & direct e-mail access to Dean
  • This service comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and member-voted odds recording methodology: Either the 3rd best fixed price available, or BOB, as recommended
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)
  • Outstanding long-term profits. Trial Spy has generated over 650 units profit over the past 7 years (a total of $65,000+ profit at $100 a unit).
  • Big priced winners have included:
  • Cloud Cover $101 ($450 available Betfair), Heroes Quest $101, Martha Mary $61 ($84 best tote, $67 advised), Georgie’s Luce $51 ($100-$150 Betfair, $67 Ubet), Éclair Choice $51, Gold Sun $47 ($80 Betfair), Public Spirit $45 ($80 Betfair), Zoutano $41 ($61 available), Rock The House $41 ($51 available), Alexander Hamilton $40, Architect $36, Raise Em Up $34 ($71 Top Fluc), Fickle Folly $34, Dylan Rocks $31, Dixie Melody $30 etc and many more. Futures Bets winners have included Sunlight at $34 for the Magic Millions 2yo, and Zoustar at $17 for the Golden Rose.

DEAN'S TIPS

Dean's Tips members receive the following:

  • Proven, high quality tips you can back with confidence from professional form analyst Dean Evans
  • Australia's second most profitable tips service in history
  • Dean devises his selections through analysis of a variety of data sources and databases including R2W Axis, using a combination of advanced form, speed, class, weight, rating, video and sectional analysis. He also uses advanced statistical data and knowledge, combined with his unique 'isolation' concept to provide highly profitable tips to members
  • Selections, including staking and betting advice are sent to you via smartphone app, e-mail and by accessing your exclusive members area
  • Over 20,000 bets on public record
  • Outstanding customer support - expect a quick and comprehensive response to any queries
  • This service comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or annual memberships. (We are so confident in our package, that if official results don't profit over the period of your subscription for any quarterly or annual package, we will refund your next payment).
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and member-voted odds recording methodology: Simply BOB (Best Tote/Top Fluc)  or Betfair SP (less commission) for virtually all Metro races and most Provincial/Country races, and the 3rd best fixed price available for Futures and some selected races (as advised pre race)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)
  • Outstanding long-term profits. Dean's Tips have a significant edge over the marketplace, and the service has generated over 500 units profit over the past 7 years (a total of $50,000+ profit at $100 a unit). Big priced winners have included:
  • Carn $149, Stage Girl $126, Emmadee $101 ($560 Betfair), Mighty Boss $101, Kaiser Franz $71, In Good Health $71, Calvo $57, Aliferous $57, Shazee Lee $56, Harlem $53, Sacred Falls $51, Sea Lord $51, The Beach $51, Mourinho $43, Tully Ho $42, Centre Divider $42, Forseen $41, Cameo $41, Gala Affair $41, Gold Fields $41, Havana Cigar $41, Runaway $41, Thermal Current $41, Harlem $41, Just Two Vees $40 and plenty more.

THE SYNDICATE - SATURDAY ONLY SERVICE

Australian Tips & Ratings offers Tips & Ratings for Metro, Provincial and Country racing in every state of Australia.

This particular service is for member who want to bet on a Saturday only.

This is a game changing service, with 7 services in 1, covering Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Northern Territory & Tasmania.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by 'King' Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips, ratings and staking for each potential bet are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings for are provided for every race. Bets are in races with a big enough POT, and we only bet when the market price exceeds the rated price.

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implictly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that backs favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-5 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

'King' Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full time professional punters who are now exclusively providing their ratings & tips for Metropolitan, Provincial & Country racing all across Australia on a Saturday.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2-5 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs for most betting races)
  • All bets are on Australian racing which means Minimum Bet Legislation applies. So those with banned or restricted accounts with bookmakers can still get set to win decent amounts with all bookies
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 30 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Rules & Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfully navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and simple Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

AUSTRALIAN TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

Australian Tips & Ratings offers Tips & Ratings for all Metro, Provincial and Country racing in every state of Australia.

This is a game changing service, with 7 services in 1, covering Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Northern Territory & Tasmania.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by 'King' Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips, ratings and staking for each potential bet are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings for are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT, and we only bet when the market price exceeds the rated price.

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implictly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that backs favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 300 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

'King' Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full time professional punters who are now exclusively providing their ratings & tips for Metropolitan, Provincial & Country racing all across Australia.

  • Triple the value: 7 different states covered for the price of 2
  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2-5 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • All bets are on Australian racing which means Minimum Bet Legislation applies. So those with banned or restricted accounts with bookmakers can still get set to win decent amounts with all bookies
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Rules & Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfuly navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and simple Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

INTERNATIONAL TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

International Tips & Ratings offers Tips & Ratings for all racing in Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand & South Africa.

This is a game changing service, with 4 services in 1, covering multiple leading International Horse Racing jurisdictions.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by 'King' Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings.  This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission), except for Hong Kong which is recorded at Vic Tote as Betfair does not operate in Hong Kong.

Ratings for are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT%, only betting when the market price exceeds the rated price.

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implicitly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 200 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their bets are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

The Syndicate, led by 'King' Adams, is a team of full time professional punters providing their tips & ratings for Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand & South African racing.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with full ratings for every race, and every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price, to aid those betting throughout the day
  • Messages around 2 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating)
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 30 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Rules & Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfuly navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and simple Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission) or Mid Tote as applicable
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

BONUS BET BANK BUILDER

The Bonus Bet Bank Builder is a betting tips service that takes advantage of bookmaker bonus bet promotions to make exceptionally consistent and large profits. Since launch in November 2015, the Bonus Bet Bank Builder service has made $150,000 profit; profitable in 65 out of 69 months.

Members receive an update each Friday night at 5 pm with an Excel file (the ‘Record’) that contains the weekend’s bets.

You will also receive occasional midweek updates with bets for big events such the start of the AFL/NRL seasons, Super Bowl, State of Origin, Melbourne Cup Day, etc, where there are profitable opportunities to take advantage.

The Friday update also contains a writeup on the weekend ahead, advice on any new promotions or bookies to join, and any developments from the previous week.

Weekend tips on local racing and Australian/overseas sport. 65% of profits come from racing, and 35% from sports (mainly AFL, NRL and Soccer).

Simple, easy-to-follow service.

The number 1 question we get from potential members is asking whether it is worth subscribing to the service if they are heavily banned/restricted from most bookies

If you are unsure, please send us an e-mail via Contact Us explaining the state you live in and the bookies you have access to, and we can get Rod the analyst to provide you with a personalised explanation of exactly how much profit you would have made this year.

As an example, one member who was banned/restricted from every bookie except Pointsbet, Boombet & Unibet recently was advised that he still would have made $6,276 profit on those 3 accounts this year (we don't play Palmerbet at the moment), so $784.50 profit per month. Subscription costs $197 per month (discounts on quarterly, annual), so that covers them easily.

Another very happy Member advised us that despite being completed banned/restricted with 8 bookies, including 3 big ones Sportsbet, Ladbrokes & Pointsbet, he still made $1,700 profit in his first 2 weeks, a likely $3,400+ return per month, which is a fantastic return on the $197 per month subscription cost for a heavily restricted member.

Add to that a few other factors (extra weekend and midweek bets not on the official record, deposit bonuses, better bonus bet return rate than the record (we record 60% which easy to beat), extra bookies not on the record where profit can be made, and Rod's advice, e.g. Member's Guide, and updates), and you are likely to make great profits with the service regardless of how many restricted/banned accounts you have.

GREYHOUND GENIUS

Highly profitable Greyhound Tips that have produced over $120,000 profit in 4 years, at an incredible 13% POT & 1200% ROI.

Very selective, high strike rate service with an average of 20-25 high confidence bets per month. Most betting is done from Wednesday to Saturday.

You'll be advised what time the bets will be sent each afternoon, making this a simple bet & forget service - simply back the dog advised at the best fixed price you can obtain when the e-mail is sent.

REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY

2016: 298.7 units PROFIT (15.6% POT)

2017: 192.9 units PROFIT (9.1% POT)

2018: 258.1 units PROFIT (17.5% POT)

2019: 172.6 units PROFIT (12.1% POT)

2020: 181.9 units PROFIT (14.4% POT)

GREYHOUND STINGERS

To protect dividends, this service is only available on trial to existing Winning Edge Investments members. It cannot be purchased through the website.

Greyhound Stingers is a service with a  high strike rate and profitability.

The service has made 206u profit at 18.3% POT so far in 2021, and that's recording official results up to August very conservatively at mid tote when no bet type recommended, or at the recommended fixed price only if it was lower than mid tote. The results at recommended prices were over 300u profit.

All 2021 results throughout 2021 have also been sent to a large number of paying members on another platform. Indeed this service has been running since 2019 to paying members, but we have only tracked, reviewed, triple checked and verified the 2021 results.

The 10 unit bets are called Stingers and have a remarkable win strike rate of over 60%.

Overall the service has had a win strike rate of over 50% in 2021, only backing the dogs that profile clearly on top, with an average of around 50 bets per month.

August was a massive month with +72.9u profit, though at recommended prices it was well over 100u profit. Another pleasing part about this service is that the results just keep getting better each month. 

The analyst MD undertakes detailed form analysis, but the true potency of the service is driven by the powerful industry connections through a network of bookmakers and trainers that he has built up over 25 years in the Industry, which enables him to have supreme confidence when betting, particularly on the 10-Unit Stingers.

The detailed form analysis based on 30 years of industry experience, coupled with stable connections to ensure that the dogs backed are fit, well & in the right races, topped off with assurances that the smart money is on, combine to enable a set of Stinger bets the deliver deadly results to the bookies.

To protect dividends, we have been slowly expanding the trial of this service privately, only to existing Winning Edge Investments members of other services, who can feel free to enquire if they are interested in joining the trial.

PETER'S TIPS

Peter Jones has combined his previous Feature Futures & Saturday Specials services, plus added potential midweek and international tips for members into one mega service simply called Peter's Tips.

The service will contain the usual Feature Futures bets, plus any pre-post bets through the week ahead of the big Saturday races.

In addition Peter will send his bets on Saturdays, but they will not be in the same format as Saturday Specials.

Rather than being restricted to sending them in the morning at a set time, Peter will send his bets at the right times through the day so that he has the flexibility to advise whether to take a fixed price or bet at BOB, and also to wait to assess weather, track conditions, track bias and market movements.

Furthermore, Peter will be offering some bets midweek where he finds opportunities, and even provide bets on International jurisdictions that he covers from time to time such as Hong Kong, and major meetings at Ascot & Dubai. 

This provides Peter with complete flexibility so that members can receive the full benefit of Peter's skills and expertise, and will ensure members benefit from the full gamut of Peter's betting, for half the previous cost. 

The tips are provided by Peter Jones, who was professionally trained as a video analyst at Humbleton (the company that provides analysis for the biggest betting syndicate in the world).

Peter also worked as a form analyst for an Australian wide company that provides selections in TAB outlets.

Race selection is a critical element of the service's success. Peter ignores races that are deemed to have insufficient information or where circumstances dictate a reduced confidence that the ratings will be accurate. This includes not betting on many 2yo races, early 3yo races, small fields, weak staying events, races with significant numbers of 1st and 2nd uppers, and considerably biased or wet tracks (soft 6 or worse). Peter also generally avoids certain tracks with inconsistent results including Warwick Farm & Moonee Valley.

Very different to the norm, this service includes a focus on Futures Betting. For those unfamiliar, Futures Betting is betting on major races (usually G1, G2, G3 or LR races) before the final field is announced. There is some risk to Futures Betting, as it is possible to back a horse that doesn't even start in the race, and your bet is not refunded. However the odds you can secure in these early futures markets are oftentimes (for the astute), far greater than the odds the horse starts on the day.

In addition to the Futures bets, some early bets before final fields are announced, and some All In bets after final fields are announced are also provided early in the week to provide a complete strategy on the selected betting races.

Big Feature Futures winners include:

$26 Dixie Blossoms (Coolmore Classic), $26 Yes Yes Yes (The Everest), $26 Mer De Glace (Caulfield Cup), $26 Fifty Stars (Australian Cup), $15 Lys Gracieux (Cox Plate), $15 Tyzone (Stradbroke Handicap), $15 Probabeel (Epsom Handicap), $13 Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), $13 Fierce Impact (Toorak Handicap) and many more.

Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

This service comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or annual memberships. (We are so confident in our package, that if official results don't profit over the period of your subscription for any quarterly or annual package, we will refund your next payment).

Feature Futures Q&A with Peter Jones

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/posts/feature-futures-qanda

We recommend a 200 unit betting bank with this service, partly because there may be a large number of unresulted Futures Bets pending at any one time.

BLACKBOOK BETS

Are you looking for a simple to follow service with no need to rush and get fixed prices?

Backing every horse simply at BOB or Betfair SP.

Exclusively backing big value winners at double figure odds (no short priced runners).

Set Release time of 9.30am.

Big winners like Florent $57, The Real Beel $51, Juaphikoa $51, Rose of Eastbourne $51, Evil Lil $41, Casino Wizard $34, Lady Esprit $34, Princely $31, Miss Iano $31, Leale $26, Vinland $26, The Quarterback $26, Santa Ana Lane $26, Rich Hips $26 and many, many more.

Betting in this manner resulted in higher profits, higher POT, and lower variance.

Headed by Lachlan Mosley, this service has produced over 250 units profit since Jan 2016.

Lachlan develops his edge through a combination of video analysis and professional assessment of sectional times.

Watching countless hours of videos and live races, Lachlan documents his findings in each race to highlight runners to follow.

Using well-honed form analysis skills he identifies when those horses should be backed next, and when they should be left alone.

SPEED STARS

Starting October 2021, the Speed Stars service will take on a new look as Mat tries to avoid the large number of close calls and near misses of late. The amount of units lost by small margins on horses who were beaten by bad luck, poor rides and Mat's 2nd/3rd rated horses has been significant and amendments are being made to change that.

Going forward selections will take on a mix of the following types:

  • Single Win bet only on horses Mat deems an absolute special and we get a good price
  • Multiple Win bets on Top 2-3 rated horses with very strong chances and plenty of value
  • Win/Place bets on Top 1-2 rated horses at very generous odds
  • Place bets on a Top 3 rated horse that is a solid place chance at big odds

The changes are being made to drive a higher probability of posting solid long term profitability than looking at win bets only.

The standard 11:15am release time will remain with any earlier or later release selections notified. Unit staking will vary pending on the situation and may include some at fixed odds.

Mat Smith has been a form analyst for the last 10 years.

Mat has previously provided highly successful tipping services to other providers, including one between August 2014 and March 2016 that made 237.3 units profit at 15% POT, before the tipping organisation moved into sports data services and stopped offering horse racing tips. Mat also offered a free newsletter demonstrating how effective his speed and sectional based ratings were. Results were based on proportional stakes at SP, and between January and October 2018 that generated 62.7u profit at 18.5% POT.

Mat explains his journey and approach below.

"I started out using the 'tried and true' principles of racing, but after a few years learned that using public racing data alone did not provide a lot of value since everyone has access to it. I began to experiment with speed ratings and realised that there were not that many people using them, and there was a significant edge in speed based data when formulated using verified race and sectional times. Whilst sectional times are now being made more publicly available, times on their own are often misleading, so having access to a proper ratings database is important. The data revolution led me to start developing a model to combine key form and market based data along with speed and sectional ratings to find the right horses to analyse, and the right races to bet in. I find this works best with reliable data and good, consistent horses, so I choose to focus on Saturday Metropolitan meetings, targeting Sydney and Melbourne which is where the large majority of selections come from.

The model narrows down the number of races for me to analyse and once I have reviewed the model selections and the other horses in the race, I determine if the race represents a betting opportunity or if I move on to the next one. It is a very selective process with an average of 4-5 selections per Saturday, sometimes there are none and other days there are 10 or more, but I never make a selection that I feel is not a genuine winning chance based on the information I have available. Sometimes the model misses horses that are not popular on form or market factors, yet are strong performers from a speed perspective, so there is a small percentage of horses of this nature that make up the selections, along with some mid week blackbookers that are placed well. I used to try to beat the market but I believe now that the key to winning is to verify the market and key form factors with accurate speed ratings to find strong winning chances.

Having previously provided selections for a very profitable racing service, I understand the need to have a professional approach and treat betting like a business, and this is how I operate my service."

VIC TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

VIC Tips & Ratings offers the best in horse racing tips & ratings for all Metropolitan Melbourne, Provincial and Country racing in Victoria.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by ‘King’ Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by ‘King’ Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT, and we only bet when the market price exceeds the rated price.


The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implicitly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day in order to ensure that they are providing the best in horse racing tips for Melbourne and Victoria at large. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races to provide Melburnians and Victorians the best tips that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

‘King’ Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full-time professional punters who are now exclusively providing Winning Edge Investments members with their ratings & tips for Metropolitan, Provincial & Country racing in Victoria.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • All bets are on VIC racing which means Minimum Bet Legislation applies. So those with banned or restricted accounts with bookmakers can still get set to win decent amounts with all bookies
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfuly navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent and transparent Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

NSW TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

NSW Tips & Ratings offers horse racing tips & ratings for all Metropolitan Sydney, Provincial and Country racing in New South Wales.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by ‘King’ Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT, and we only bet when the market price exceeds the rated price.

 

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implicitly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of results that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day in order to ensure that they are providing the best in horse racing tips for Sydney and the whole of NSW no matter the race. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races to provide Sydney investors and those residing in NSW with the best horse racing tips from professionals.

 

‘King’ Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full-time professional punters who are now exclusively providing Winning Edge Investments members with their ratings & tips for Metropolitan, Provincial & Country racing in New South Wales.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • All bets are on NSW racing which means Minimum Bet Legislation applies. So those with banned or restricted accounts with bookmakers can still get set to win decent amounts with all bookies
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfully navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent and transparent Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

QLD TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

QLD Tips & Ratings offers tips & ratings for all of Metropolitan Brisbane, Gold Coast, Provincial and Country racing in Queensland.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by ‘King’ Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings for are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT, and we only bet when the market price exceeds the rated price.


The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implicitly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of results that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day in order to ensure that they are providing the best in horse racing tips for Brisbane, Gold Coast and QLD as a whole.

While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time. This enables them to provide Brisbane, Gold Coast and QLD investors with the best horse racing tips from professionals with a proven track record.

 

King’ Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full-time professional punters who are now exclusively providing Winning Edge Investments members with their ratings & tips for Metropolitan, Provincial & Country racing in Queensland.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • All bets are on QLD racing which means Minimum Bet Legislation applies. So those with banned or restricted accounts with bookmakers can still get set to win decent amounts with all bookies
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfully navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent and transparent Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

HONG KONG TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

Hong Kong Tips & Ratings offers tips & ratings for all races at Sha Tin & Happy Valley in Hong Kong.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by 'King' Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Vic Tote.

Ratings for are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT%, and we only bet when the market price exceeds the rated price.

 

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implictly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2 minutes before race start time). Different to most of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their final bets are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

'King' Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full time professional punters who are now exclusively providing Winning Edge Investments members their ratings & tips for Hong Kong racing.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with full ratings for every race, for every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price, to aid those betting throughout the day
  • Messages around 2 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfuly navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and simple Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Mid Tote
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

SOUTH AFRICA TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

South Africa Tips & Ratings offers tips & ratings for all racing in South Africa.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by King Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings for are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT%, only betting when the market price exceeds the rated price.

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implictly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

King Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full time professional punters who are now exclusively providing their ratings & tips for South Africa.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2-5 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Rules & Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfuly navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and simple Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

NEW ZEALAND TIPS & RATINGS - THE SYNDICATE

This service is currently closed to new members.

New Zealand Tips & Ratings offers tips & ratings for all Metro, Provincial and Country racing in New Zealand.

These are provided by The Syndicate, a professional full time betting syndicate headed by King Abraham, who use their own sophisticated custom-built proprietary database to generate highly accurate ratings. 

This crack team has 115 combined years of horse racing betting experience.

Tips and staking are provided with all results recorded simply at Betfair SP (less commission).

Ratings for are provided for every race. Official bets are only in races with a big enough POT%, only betting when the market price exceeds the rated price.

The ratings are based on an entirely mathematically based process. The Syndicate win by trusting implictly the statistics, data and mathematics. 

Members receive a strict set of rules that must be followed to match the results.

This is not a service that goes around backing favourites. In fact quite the opposite. On most occasions this team identifies the favourites that are overbet, and bets to get them BEATEN.

Note that this service only suits members who can bet late (in the last 2-3 minutes before race start time). Different to many of our offerings, this is not a bet & forget type service.

Best results are achieved by monitoring prices and betting late with Corporate Bookies, Totes or Betfair. We recommend a 100 unit betting bank with this service.

 

The Syndicate has a combined 115 years of horse racing experience. Their methodology has been tried and tested, and their team and members have been reaping the financial benefits for years.

The team spends up to 15 hours a day analysing the numbers and odds race by race, meeting by meeting, day by day. While many algorithms base their recommendations on simple variables like past performance and weight, the Syndicate takes a far more advanced approach.

The Syndicate uses apples-to-apples and horses for courses comparisons to calculate the likely performance of horses based on every factor available, including weight, track conditions, speed maps, and track surface. They monitor the market in real-time to ensure their tips are financially sound recommendations. The Syndicate steers clear of volatile markets and works in the middle ground of dependable races that will reward the patient punter with consistent wins over time.

 

King Abraham leads The Syndicate, a team of full time professional punters who are now exclusively providing their ratings & tips for Metropolitan, Provincial & Country racing all across New Zealand.

  • The Syndicate's spreadsheet with ratings for every race, including every runner that is considered a potential bet should the market price exceed the rated price
  • Messages around 2 minutes out advising which horses to back and the stake (called Navigating, occurs regularly but not always)
  • Memberships strictly capped to protect prices for members, as this is the key to winning
  • A 20 page The Syndicate Tips & Ratings - Members Information Pack which describes the approach, rules to follow and FAQs
  • A suite of over 30 You Tube videos in a playlist explaining how to successfuly navigate the sheets to maximise your profits
  • We are so confident in this service it comes with our Profit Guarantee for all quarterly or yearly memberships
  • Using a fair, consistent, transparent and simple Odds Recording Methodology, all bets are recorded simply at Betfair SP (less applicable commission)
  • Members of multiple services will also receive Loyalty Bonus Credits for joining this service (up to 30% for some members)

NRL TIPS

Bets are sent Midday Tuesday, after all of the major Australian bookmakers release their prices.

If there is a lot of market movement (such as the line moving sharply in our favour), then the analyst may notify customers of arbitrage opportunities (e.g. middles bets), that can be very lucrative. 

Line market betting, so a decent sized bet is possible with many Australian bookmakers.

Each tip provides the rated price/line, the best & second best prices available with Australian bookmakers, and recommended unit investment; everything required to place the correct bet.

David Barrett is an engineer with a university educated mathematical background, and a very keen watcher of sports. "I am what most people would refer to as a numbers person. The main aspect that I’m drawn to and really enjoy is the mental challenge of building a successful model that proves to be highly profitable. I take a very analytical approach to what I do, and I perform a lot of research to ensure success. In terms of gambling, I have been a positive expected value bettor for three years now utilising this NRL model. I like to pursue a mathematical edge through statistics, backed up by logic on my bets, as opposed to betting off a gut feel or opinion. After many years fooling around with basic modelling, a few years ago took the leap and purchased a lot of literature and devoted a lot of time to it. There has been a lot of learning on my part and I have relished every opportunity that I have had to grow myself. I’ve found that whilst something new may not entirely change a particular betting approach, it could change one small component enough that it could really revolutionise a model or system. I became successful with this particular model through applying some concepts that I had read about in papers and other research, and adapting them to how I thought they could be suitable in the NRL. After a few attempts and countless hours, I finally got to the very strong model I have now."

"I have a model that solely looks for value. Simply put, I look for games where I disagree with the line and try to take advantage of that. Over the past 4 years, results have consistently proven my modelling has been a better indicator than the market. I use the game data as opposed to the final score to assess the true performance of each team in each game. As any avid sports watcher would know, in no way does the best team on the field always win. Often the impact of a lucky bounce of the ball, referees decisions, or 100 other factors can result in a team winning a match despite playing worse than their opposition. Using the game data rather than the final score to assess performance is effective  as there are a lot of indicators of team performance that the NRL “experts” are simply not talking about or considering as they are not aware of them. I come up with my own line for each game and compare that to the market line to find value. I find that I have quite a contrarian approach to betting, and in my opinion this works very well. I back a lot of underdogs as I feel that these are mispriced. The market overrates favourites and underestimates underdogs. Many who watch the NRL would iteratively know this to be true. Regularly the no hope team beats the hot favourite. A mixture of the salary cap, questionable refereeing quality, regular injuries and a number of other factors make the games a lot more variable than the market expects.

In terms of what information I use for my analysis, I use a wide range of offensive and defensive metrics and use an algorithm to determine accurate team ratings on the back of these numbers. I am of the opinion that the market needs to regress its ratings towards the mean (good teams are overrated and poorer teams are underrated). With these numbers I create a line that the model projects as the true line that should occur if the one particular game was to be played out over a thousand times. I bet on the line market within the NRL. I have trialled the head to head market, however I have found that there is more market inefficiency in the line markets. The edge that I quantify is the model’s projected line minus the market line and I bet that edge in units. "

"Price is key. If the model doesn’t see any value, then I will not be betting, it is as simple as that. I strongly believe in not forcing bets. I love the quote: the best bet you make is the one that you never make"

"Previous results of the model (2017 to 2019) have netted on average 65 units profit per season at approximately 13% POT. The POT represents and aligns with the overall mathematical edge the model has over the market in my opinion. I have been very happy with my 12% over the last 3 years."

*Winning Edge Investments would like to point out that unlike our other services, the results stated between 2017-2019 are based on previous model output, not publicly verifiable results to paying members. HOWEVER the 2020 results sent to paying members and publicly verifiable EXCEEDED the 2017-2019 results, making +72 units profit at 18% POT.

"I bet straight away. More often than not the line closes in the direction that I bet (beating the closing line value is clearly a positive indicator for the model)." 

The model always takes the first 4 rounds to calibrate to the new season, hence official bets start in Round 5.

Bets and staking are based upon a 100 unit betting bank. I take a different approach to betting that challenges the norms but is still realistic and protects against variance. I will be making a write-up available for members on this.  

How did we validate the model?

We reviewed the model and outputs in detail, noting the below:

Table 1 showed bets placed, the round, the team backed, the closing line, the projected line for that team in that particular game, odds (for my own recording purposes I use 1.87, when 1.90+ is easily obtainable with retail bookmakers in Australia). This clearly demonstrated that the model has beaten the closing line (not just the opening line when there is more value the earlier that you bet). For transparency and to prove it’s edge, we used the closing line to show that the model is beating this comfortably, not just the opening line. We noted the model doesn’t bet before round 4. It uses the early rounds for data validation, as the use of pre-season trial games for teams is statistically insignificant. Hence tips will start in Round 4. 

Table 2 outlined the season summary for the model which demonstrated its nearly 60% strike rate for the 2019 NRL season. In the past three years, this model has averaged this 60% strike rate, which to me has demonstrated the inefficiency of the market and the effectiveness of the model. We can demonstrate my edge with mathematics: (60+41)!/(60!*41!*2^60+41) ~ 1.336% chance that the model is just flipping a coin (50% win probability) and getting lucky with the 60 wins, assuming that it should be 50% chance of winning with the line bet. Hence it is a 98.664% that the model has a true edge.

Table 3 outlines the theoretical edge on the season, simply through maths (strike rate - odds^-1). We noted the POT (profit on turnover) was higher than the edge calculation for the season, which demonstrates that the staking methodology was beneficial in making the most of the edge.

Table 4 outlined the teams that were bet on and how many times they were successful. The model favours betting teams that are considered of poorer quality to the market. The model finds very little value in betting the better teams (roosters and storm) of the past decade, as these teams are highly backed and the model itself rates those teams quite highly. In the 2019 season, the Raiders, Tigers, Sea Eagles and Knights were quite successful to follow and they outperformed market expectations overall. 

Table 5 demonstrated the number of games the model bet on. The model was able to find value in half of the games of the season. The cutoff for the model to place a bet is a two point difference from the market. This is applied to minimise variance in the season. 

Table 6 outlines the performance of each team over the course of the season against the line. Given each team plays 24 games plus finals, it is quite difficult to work in this market, as for one team to win, another must lose. As previously mentioned, the Raiders, Tigers, Sea Eagles and Knights were teams that were most successful for the model. General consensus is that each team should approximate a 50% cover rate for the line across the season, with the teams that have a higher cover % indicating that they outperformed the market expectation for them over the season. 

Table 7 demonstrated the end of season rating for each team against an average team (the Knights epitomised the closest thing to an ‘average’ team). The Storm were rated as strong as the Titans were poor. 

Below is the full Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/posts/qanda-with-an-nrl-lines-modeller

AFL TIPS

Last season we did not offer an AFL service, as we had not identified an analyst or group we considered worthy of consideration for our valued members.

However during the 2020 season we were asked to review a number of potential analysts, models and services in preparation for 2021.

One stood out from the crowd, and this was a set of free AFL tips offered on a website which receives on average 40,000 page views a month.

These free tips were also e-mailed weekly to a database of many thousands of punters, and we tracked these selections throughout the 2020 season.

Recorded simply at the prevailing Sportsbet price, the service produced a 56% win strike rate, at an average win price of $2.48, which led to a 41% POT outcome, and a $2,632 profit for the season.

The results sheet for the 2020 season has been uploaded to the website so that you can review and analyse the types and volume of bets to expect with this service

If you would like to learn more about the duo behind our new AFL Tips service, you can read our Q&A with them below:

 

At Winning Edge Investments, you’ll receive expert AFL (Australian Football League) tips, including game date, advised bets and strategies as well as a staking plan, for all betting games.

 

AFL Q&A

What is your background?

We are a team of two.  Both of us grew up in Melbourne and have followed the AFL closely all of our lives. We combine for over 20 years of experience betting on AFL football, as well as invaluable experience on the other side of the fence working for a leading corporate bookmaker.

Last year starting from Round 6 we provided our selections on a free tips website that receives over 40,000 page views a month and they sent the tips to a newsletter database with thousands of subscribers. These tips delivered a 26.3u PROFIT, achieving a 41% POT with 24 winners from 43 bets (56% strike rate).


What methodologies do you use to produce your selections? What factors do you take into account? Where do you find the biggest edges?

The work we do is a combination of data driven and subjective analysis approaches, which come from years of experience successfully betting on AFL football. 


Will there be a set release time/date for AFL tips each week, or tips sent when the opportunities present themselves?

No set times.  Head to head and line markets typically go up on a Monday so if there are opportunities we identify at that time we will advise these to members.  Otherwise we wait for teams to be released on a Thursday night.  All of the weekend's bets will be sent out prior to Friday 5pm.


What will be the main bet types? Where do you find your biggest edges.

Typically we will focus in on head to head and line markets.  Multis will also be a regular feature in our staking plan. These were used to great effect last year.  
 

Will you send Futures bets?

Futures bets will certainly be considered and last year we did have some success with these. Last season we advised Richmond to win the Premiership a number of weeks out, & Brisbane to finish in the top 4. 


How many bets per week? How many units do you expect to turnover each week?

There are 9 games of footy each week, so fromour perspective it’s all about picking the eyes out of the markets and identifying where the value lies.  Some weeks there might be only 1 or 2 bets, others there might be 5 or 6. But we will only advise bets when we identify a clear edge on the market.

Should I bet straight away when bets are released, or wait until close to game start?

We advise taking the price when the selections are sent. Our aim is to identify value in the current markets, and hence with a +EV we expect to beat the closing line to achieve this.


What information do you provide with each bet?

The selection, the advised stake in units, the available odds, and an explanation of why we believe it is a great bet.  

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (Soccer/Football)

Proven winning tips for English Premier League football from a Professional Punter.

Win Bets solely on Head to Head betting, with some Multis included.

If there are two selections (i.e. win/draw), we record assuming win bets on the two selections in those cases, but alternately advanced members could lay on Betfair if they wish. In a round there can be zero bets, or six leg multis, although both are uncommon. Unit size is usually in the region of 0.5 to 3 units. An over 10 unit spend for a round would be reasonably rare. On average we have invested 5u per round so far this season.

Bets will normally be released at least 24hrs before the first betting match of the round. Usually Friday evening 7-8pm for a typical round, unless the games schedule dictates otherwise. 

Selection, stake and available odds are provided with each tip.

The analyst identifies information that isn’t available publically. Information that can’t be used in statistical models. Sometimes the result of a match isn’t a true reflection of what happened. He conducts video analysis and focuses on seeking the actual level of performance. 

Q&A below with our English Premier League analyst.

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/posts/english-premier-league-tips