SPEED STARS WEEKLY WRAP - 20TH FEBRUARY

Saturday 20th February

+17.2u at 143% POT

3 winners from 6 selections

50% Strike Rate

Winners: Larkham $5.90, Rich Hips $5.50, Lord Vladivostok $3.20

Comments: It was great to see a double digit profit for the day after a few quiet betting days, another tough watch though with Dirty Work being so close to a 26u return.

 

Selection Review

Larkham $5.90 (1st for an 11.8u return) – I had confidence that this horse could get back in the winner’s circle after his strong trial and past speed ratings, he was helped along by the slow early speed, but he was far too strong for them late without fully exerting himself.

Elderflower $4.30 (3rd 1.1L from an 8.6u return) – she performed a fair bit below her previous due to her last 400m being below her recent average when factoring the early and mid speeds, perhaps she has had enough for this preparation.

Lord Vladivostok $3.20 (1st for a 6.4u return) – what an easy watch this was and a most impressive performance given how raw the horse still is, he was all over the track in the final 200m but was still accelerating away from all but the 3rd horse. Off a very slow early speed, he ran the 2nd best last 800m and best last 400m ratings of the meeting.

Rich Hips $5.50 (1st for an 11u return) – although not a high rating race, her return was sound and a nice overall performance.

Dirty Work $13.00 (UNP 0.7L from a 26u return) – without being biased, I can honestly say that we can all feel very frustrated that we did not get the 26u return on this horse given he was pretty much flopped back to last and given 6L to make up at the 400m. In the straight he had to change course to avoid a very tired Ancestry which cost him some momentum but he picked and ran home strongly. Looking at the lanes on the day, his lane in the final 200m was the slowest of the day and a touch over 3L disadvantage to the lane Brooklyn Hustle was in and around 0.8L worse than both of the winners.

Spaceboy $5.50 (UNP) – he profiled very well leading into the race given the likely wet track and he paraded very well but certainly did not race accordingly. A post race review suggests that the track was nowhere near as wet as official ratings indicated and was more like a Soft 5 from the outset. Regardles of track condition, it was a disappointing performance.

 

Summary

While we had some nice wins today, I believe we were on the best horse in Dirty Work however a few things did not work out in his favour on the day. Nonetheless, it was a great overall result and there will be a number of horses that we will be following over the coming weeks.

 

February Results To Date

+18.2u at 76% POT

5 winner from 12 selections (2 selections beaten less than 1L for 39.8u)

42% Strike Rate

 

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+64.3u at 19.3% POT

15/30 Winning Weeks

4/7 Winning Months

2/2 Winning Quarters

 

Long Term Model Results

75/118 Winning Days – 63.56%

18/25 Winning Months – 72.00%

8/8 Winning Quarters – 100.00%

42.2% Strike rate

+450.6u at 42.5% POT

 

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo