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NBA Tips Season Review
Sunday, 19 June 2022
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NBA Tips Review
Final tally: +13.9 units
2022 results: +25.1 units
Biggest drawdown: -11.1 units
YOY:
2020/2021: 194.2 units invested. +30.5 units profit
2021/2022: 249.4 units invested. +13.9 units profit
Total: 452.6 units invested. +44.4 units profit
246 tips sent including futures and 2 bets within 1 game.
Average stake: 1.1 units per bet.
Luck Factor:
Bets that traded sub $1.20 and lost: 26
Bets that traded $1.10 or lower and lost: 13
Of the above 13, 4 bets traded $1.01 and went on to lose:
11th November 2021: Atlanta Hawks +3.5: Led by 11 points with 8 minutes left. (Stake of 1.2U at $1.86)
7th January 2022: Boston -2: Led by 24 points with 2 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter (Stake of 1u at $1.87)
12TH January 2022: Denver Nuggets -2.5: Led by 25 points with 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. (Stake of 1.1u at $1.9)
28th March 2022: LA Lakers +4.5: Led by 22 points at half time. (stake of 1.1u at $1.90)
Bets that traded $6+ and won: 6
Bets that traded $10+ and won: 3
SP stats:
Members took a better price than SP 48 times:
Bets that beat SP & Won: 20
Bets that beat SP & Lost: 28
Members took a worse price than SP 25 times:
Bets that lost out to SP and won: 15
Bets that lost out to SP and lost: 10
Summary:
Despite finishing the season with a profit, it was a frustrating and at times particularly stressful NBA season. Hindsight suggests that when Covid really took hold of the league (November/December) the service “should” have been put on hold. However, having felt owed to subscribers to not stop for 6 weeks, I continued to tip into a minefield of teams missing players and at times guessing what the minutes would look like. Thankfully, for next season with covid being an afterthought, this shouldn’t be happening again.
The biggest issue from my side of the service is tipping the “2nd best price” in market. Countless times a tip was not sent out (and in some cases, sent at a different number that went on to void or lose) because I was not able to take on the bookmakers who had opinions on games that I believed were wrong. It is extremely unlikely that any of the subscribers (or in fact, anyone in Australia) is being heavily limited on a sport like NBA H2H or Line bets. For next season, in some small instances I will want the flexibility to be able to tip the best prices or lines in market so that members can take advantage of all of the opportunities. If these were NBA props, it is easy to get limited, but on the two core markets it really shouldn’t be an issue for anyone.
The smaller issue to mention is the tracking of SP. Unlike racing, I have really no intent to “beat” the market. My work is done best when the teams are announced, lines are settled and I know exactly who is on the floor for the game. As you can see by the results, only 30% of the tips this year were not at SP. Beating SP didn’t make a difference, as 28 times I beat the market and lost, compared to the 20 times of beating the market and winning. I also returned a better result on tips that “drifted” beyond what I tipped and won, rather than the drifting selections that lost.
Next season I will be aiming for two major differences:
Average stake to be around 1.5 units per bet.
Number of tips to be closer to 200 for an entire season.
I am the first to admit I tipped too much this season. Something I need to reflect on and get better at is that in the day-to-day cycle of NBA, sometimes there will be multiple days or a full week of games that don’t warrant a tip. By doing this I will hopefully limit some of the painful and unlucky losses that occurred so often this season.
When it comes to staking, while I did the right thing before the new year keeping bets small as teams were figuring things out, there was an opportunity towards the middle of January onward to certainly increase past that 1.1 mark. Entering the year down of 11 units meant I was circumspect to protect members but do believe average stake needs to increase.
The new season is set to commence on the 20th of October, so until then happy enough with the year and look forward to doing it again in four months’ time.
