BLOGS
2022 Melbourne Cup Tips
Sunday, 30 October 2022
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Dean Evans
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT
Profiles clearly on top. Won twice at York in June and July over 2800m at Listed and G3 level by 1.8L and 3.5L respectively, dominating from on pace. Was ridden quieter over 2400m at Newmarket in Listed grade on 23 September and finished well for 2nd beaten 2.3L. Ran 2nd beaten a head over 2400m in Dubai to Hukum who went on to win the G1 Coronation Cup (2400m) beating Pyledriver by 5L who then won the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. That is premium form. Is the best import and hard to beat.
18. LUNAR FLARE
Won the Mornington Classic and then the MV Cup last year. Finished strongly to win the Bart Cummings at Flemington on Oct 1, then again hit the line nicely for 2nd in the MV Cup last start. Looks the clear best chance of the Aussie horses.
1. Gold Trip ran 2nd beaten a nose in the Caulfield Cup then no luck in the Cox Plate. Loves the wet and has a number of G1 placings in France. Big chance but has a big weight of 57.5kg so although a big place chance, may find one or two better.
23. Interpretation has been set for this and expecting a more positive ride here. Can surprise at odds.
8. Deauville Legend was an impressive winner of the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (2400m) at York last start, a race Cross Counter won before winning the Melbourne Cup. Issue is the weight as a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. They won in 2017 and 2018 with 51kg and 51.5kg respectively. Il Paradiso should have won with 52.5kg and Tiger Moth was 2nd beaten 0.5L with 52.5kg. Deauville Legend has 55kg which is a huge impost.8. Deauville Legend was an impressive winner of the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (2400m) at York last start, a race Cross Counter won before winning the Melbourne Cup. Issue is the weight as a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. They won in 2017 and 2018 with 51kg and 51.5kg respectively. Il Paradiso should have won with 52.5kg and Tiger Moth was 2nd beaten 0.5L with 52.5kg. Deauville Legend has 55kg which is a huge impost.
I only want to back Without A Fight and Lunar Flare to win.
Gold Trip and Interpretation look good place bets.
King Abraham
19. SMOKIN' ROMANS
Massive class and speed rating. Has wet track figures that rate off the charts.
23. INTERPRETATION
Has massive speed figures off 4 Australian runs. Can surprise
17. EMISSARY
Has excellent figures particularly on dry.
16. ARAPAHO
Has huge figures but lacks class. However, at 70/1, why not?
21. POINT NEPEAN
Big speed ratings actually one of the best speed figures on the soft 7 but lacks class. Worth a ticket at 60/1.
Duais, Montefilia and Vow And Declare added for exotics.
Lachlan Mosley
Melbourne Cup Top 5 chances and Betting Strategy
2. DUAIS
Although the horse has arguably been a touch disappointing when running 8th in both the Group 1 Turnbull and Caulfield Cups when well in commission, there still seems to be a sense of timing about this galloper. Shee wasn't too far away in both of those runs but did still lack her customary turn-of-foot. She seems a touch more dour this preparation, but that could be the tonic she needs over this 3200m trip. Untried over the journey but she is one that gives every indication that she will handle the trip. Blown right out in the market to a very backable price!
4. MONTEFILIA
The eye-catcher of the Caulfield Cup when rocketed home from 14th on the bend to 1L 4th with easily the fastest last 200m split of the race. Another mare that has been set for the race and boasts a big 2L win over last year's Cup winner Verry Elleegant. She is drawn to receive a cosy run-in-transit and Collett will have to cuddle her up as much as possible before letting go with another blistering late sectional. Query at the 3200m but most of them are!
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND
When doing my Melbourne Cup selections I generally have my "Aussie blinkers" on and try to find a hometown hero! Historically we know it's generally a day that the international raiders come and take back the prize. It could well be the case again with the much-hyped DEAUVILLE LEGEND. His win in the Group 2 Voltiguer Stakes at York was astonishing. Freshened up to go into this race basically first up. The horse hasn't seen the 3200m before but that would be expected as he's only had 7 starts. Looks a world class stayer on the rise. Looks the best of the border raiders.
10. VOW AND DECLARE
The 2019 winner has basically been off the boil for 3 years with indifferent form and battling niggling injuries along the way. Seems to have found the zest for racing again in 2022 and has put in a preparation that suggests he can become a 2x time winner of the race. Forget the run in the Caulfield Cup when he raced basically 3-4 wide the entire trip and still had the audacity to fight out a 1.9L 6th. Brave performance which suggests the horse is rock hard fit for the big one Tuesday!
24. REALM OF FLOWERS
Looked a live chance last year before being pulled from the campaign with an injury. Her run last start over 2400m in the G1 Metropolitan was enormous. She raced 3 wide the entire trip and should have weakened in the straight but just kept coming and coming and went down by a half-head for 3rd. A month between runs should have helped her get over that gut-buster and she has always shown staying ability. She is the best lightweight hope!
