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Expected wins = the number of wins expected based on the selections’ starting prices
Odds advantage = (Email price – 1) / (Best fixed closing price – 1)
Note that the odds advantage is calculated using the prices from the six corporate bookmakers I keep figures for. The email price is the 3rd ranked of those and the odds advantage figure understates what could be achieved.
An odds advantage of 1.37 means we have a big margin over the closing price. For example, taking $10 about a horse that starts $7.50 or $6 about one that starts $4.60.
In a nutshell, we expected 25 winners and only got 15 meaning that the horses didn’t run to anywhere near their starting prices. If we’d got the 25 then the win bets would have returned $108 for our $86 outlay.
There’s not a lot I can do about that, though it’s been a bit depressing watching so many of them be uncompetitive and fail to justify their backing. Most people would tweak their selection set or something but given the size of the odds advantage that would be mistake. Hopefully, the run of outs can end and we can get some winners back on the board. As an example of how these things can work, in a famous incident in 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino one of the roulette wheels spat out 26 blacks in a row. How did people respond as the sequence grew longer? They increased their bets on red! Makes no sense, but it’s not known as the Gambler’s Fallacy for nothing.
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