BLOGS

Week in Review

Saturday 5th June

-6u at -100% POT

0 winners from 5 selections

0% Strike Rate

Winners: Nil

Comments: 4 of the 5 selections placed with 3 selections beaten by margins of 0.3L, 0.4L and 0.6L in what was an especially frustrating day.

Selection Review

Tier 1

Flemington

Race 5 #8 Rubisaki $5.00 (2nd 0.4L from a 10u return) – the pace of this race was exceptionally slow and gave the winner a big advantage leading all the way, Rubisaki was further forward than I expected and was 2.3L faster over the last 400m but the extra 2.4L exertion in the mid race, may have been the telling factor as she faded 1L over the last 200m which was the difference between winning and losing.

Tier 2

Flemington

Race 3 #9 Beehunter $7.00 (UNP) – the horse raced further forward and was in a great position but had nothing in the straight and was well beaten. No abnormalities reported.

Race 8 #2 All Of Brighton $5.50 (3rd beaten 2L) – this was the highest rating race of the day with a very fast early speed, he ran the best last 800m rating of the meeting but was just giving the winner too much start despite being 0.5L faster over the last 400m.

Eagle Farm

Race 6 #7 Luvoir $6.00 (3rd 0.3L from a 6u return) – in my preview I wrote that he should get a comfortable early speed which was not the case as he was asked to race 2L faster through the early stages than last start with a 3L higher mid race exertion. It was a very good effort considering he was also in one of the slowest lanes of the day over the last 200m, the winner’s lane showed around a 1.5L relative advantage. It does need pointing out that this horse opened at $6.00 and SP’d at $2.90 so he was heavily supported.

Race 7 #3 Rocha Clock $6.80 (3rd 0.6L from a 6.8u return) – she jumped well from the wide draw but went back to 2nd last to avoid being wide which was a very negative tactic given the early speed was only average. She made a solid mid race move and had her chance but faded around 0.7L over the last 200m which ultimately cost her the race.

Summary

3 horses beaten 0.6L or less and could have easily been up to a +16u day.

June Results To Date

-6u at -100% POT

0 winners from 5 selections (3 horses beaten by less than 1L for an 22.8u return)

0% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+38.5u at 9.8% POT

17/39 Winning Weeks

5/11 Winning Months (only 3 betting days in April/May 2021 due to family reasons resulting in loss of -4.2u over both months)

3/3 Winning Quarters (not including current Quarter to June 30)

Long Term Results

78/127 Winning Days – 61.42%

19/29 Winning Months – 65.52%

9/9 Winning Quarters – 100.00% (not including current quarter to June 30)

40.0% Strike rate

+424.8u at 37.9% POT

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo