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Q&A with an NRL Lines modeller

Sunday, 25 February 2024

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Below is a Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett.

Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.

My name is David Barrett. I am an engineer with a university educated mathematical background. I am what most people would refer to as a number's person. The main aspect that I’m drawn to and really enjoy is the mental challenge of building a successful model that proves to be highly profitable. I take a very analytical approach to what I do, and I perform a lot of research to ensure success. In terms of gambling, I have been a positive expected value bettor for three years now utilizing this NRL model. I like to pursue a mathematical edge through statistics, backed up by logic on my bets, as opposed to betting off a gut feel or opinion.

How did you turn into a successful long-term punter?

After many years fooling around with basic modelling, a few years ago took the leap and purchased a lot of literature and devoted a lot of time to it. There has been a lot of learning on my part, and I have relished every opportunity that I have had to grow myself. I’ve found that whilst something new may not entirely change a particular betting approach, it could change one small component enough that it could really revolutionize a model or system.

How did you get into NRL? Have you always been a successful punter on NRL? If not, how did you turn into a successful long-term punter on NRL?

I have always been a fan of the sport, I grew up playing footy for many years, but had to stop after many injuries. It is one of the major sporting markets in the southern hemisphere. I became successful with this particular model through applying some concepts that I had read about in papers and other research and adapting them to how I thought they could be suitable in the NRL. After a few attempts and countless hours, I finally got to the very strong model I have now.  

How do you identify your bets? What are the key areas or statistics you analyze? Where do you find the biggest edges? 

I have a model that solely looks for value. Simply put, I look for games where I disagree with the line and try to take advantage of that. Over the past 4 years, results have consistently proven my modelling has been a better indicator than the market.

The model always takes the first 4 rounds to calibrate to the new season, hence official bets start in Round 5.

Why do you believe you do so well on NRL?

I use the game data as opposed to the final score to assess the true performance of each team in each game. As any avid sports watcher would know, in no way does the best team on the field always win. Often the impact of a lucky bounce of the ball, referee's decisions, or 100 other factors can result in a team winning a match despite playing worse than their opposition. Using the game data rather than the final score to assess performance is effective as there are a lot of indicators of team performance that the NRL “experts” are simply not talking about or considering as they are not aware of them. I come up with my own line for each game and compare that to the market line to find value. I find that I have quite a contrarian approach to betting, and this works very well. I back a lot of underdogs as these are mispriced. The market overrates favourites and underestimates underdogs. Many who watch the NRL would iteratively know this to be true. Regularly the no hope team beats the hot favourite. A mixture of the salary cap, questionable refereeing quality, regular injuries and a number of other factors make the games a lot more variable than the market expects.

In terms of what information, I use for my analysis, I use a wide range of offensive and defensive metrics and use an algorithm to determine accurate team ratings on the back of these numbers. I am of the opinion that the market needs to regress its ratings towards the mean (good teams are overrated and poorer teams are underrated). With these numbers I create a line that the model projects as the true line that should occur if the one particular game was to be played out over a thousand times. I bet on the line market within the NRL. The edge that I quantify is the model’s projected line minus the market line and I bet that edge in units. 

What else do you look at when assessing matches and determining bets? 

Price is key. If the model doesn’t see any value, then I will not be betting, it is as simple as that. I strongly believe in not forcing bets. I love the quote “the best bet you make is the one that you never make “

How will your service work? What types of bets will you send, how many bets per week, unit bank recommended, estimate of weekly units spent? 

I will send out the model’s selections every Tuesday. If there is a lot of market movement (such as the line moving sharply in our favour), then I may notify customers of arbitrage opportunities (e.g., middles bets), that can be very lucrative.

What time will bets normally be released? 

Midday Tuesday, after all of the major Australian bookmakers release their prices.

What information do you provide with each bet? 

With each bet I will provide my rated price/line, the best & second-best prices available with Australian bookmakers (second best of Australian bookmakers will be recorded for official results), and recommended unit investment. Everything required to place the correct bet.

What are your previous results? What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?  

Previous results in 2017-2023 have netted a total of 256 units profit, on average over 36 units profit per season at 9.3% POT. The POT represents and aligns with the overall mathematical edge the model has over the market in my opinion. I have been very happy with my 9.3% POT and 256% ROI over the last 7 years.

That's $3,660 profit per season on average for a $100 per unit punter, and the service costs only $787 per season.

Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use? What odds comparison sites are the best to use?

You can’t beat Topsport for value. TAB is a no brainer for whatever jurisdiction you are in to place a bet in person. The more options you have, the better.

Why sell your tips if it impacts the odds you secure with your own betting?

I bet almost exclusively with overseas bookmakers using Bitcoin. Hence, I have no corporate bookmaker profile in Australia. The bets I place and where members will be betting means we won’t be competing with each other for prices and won’t impact each other’s prices. We’ll all be able to get on at the same time at great prices as we’ll be betting in different jurisdictions with different bookies.

How will the odds be recorded?

The 2nd best price of Australian bookmakers only (excluding Betfair and all overseas bookmakers)

Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the game start? 

I bet straight away. More often than not the line closes in the direction that I bet (beating the closing line value is clearly a positive indicator for the model).

Will I be able to get a decent bet on? 

The bets are on the line market, so yes, a decent sized bet is possible with a number of Australian bookmakers.

Are bets based on a 100-unit betting bank?

Yes, bets and staking are based upon a 100-unit betting bank. I take a different approach to betting that challenges the norms but is still realistic and protects against variance. I will be making a write-up available for members on this. 

Any profit guarantee?

Yes, a profit guarantee applies for all annual/season memberships.

 

Join the NRL Tips service here: NRL Expert Betting Tips and Strategies

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BLOGS

Q&A with an NRL Lines modeller

Sunday, 25 February 2024

Share post on

Below is a Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett.

Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.

My name is David Barrett. I am an engineer with a university educated mathematical background. I am what most people would refer to as a number's person. The main aspect that I’m drawn to and really enjoy is the mental challenge of building a successful model that proves to be highly profitable. I take a very analytical approach to what I do, and I perform a lot of research to ensure success. In terms of gambling, I have been a positive expected value bettor for three years now utilizing this NRL model. I like to pursue a mathematical edge through statistics, backed up by logic on my bets, as opposed to betting off a gut feel or opinion.

How did you turn into a successful long-term punter?

After many years fooling around with basic modelling, a few years ago took the leap and purchased a lot of literature and devoted a lot of time to it. There has been a lot of learning on my part, and I have relished every opportunity that I have had to grow myself. I’ve found that whilst something new may not entirely change a particular betting approach, it could change one small component enough that it could really revolutionize a model or system.

How did you get into NRL? Have you always been a successful punter on NRL? If not, how did you turn into a successful long-term punter on NRL?

I have always been a fan of the sport, I grew up playing footy for many years, but had to stop after many injuries. It is one of the major sporting markets in the southern hemisphere. I became successful with this particular model through applying some concepts that I had read about in papers and other research and adapting them to how I thought they could be suitable in the NRL. After a few attempts and countless hours, I finally got to the very strong model I have now.  

How do you identify your bets? What are the key areas or statistics you analyze? Where do you find the biggest edges? 

I have a model that solely looks for value. Simply put, I look for games where I disagree with the line and try to take advantage of that. Over the past 4 years, results have consistently proven my modelling has been a better indicator than the market.

The model always takes the first 4 rounds to calibrate to the new season, hence official bets start in Round 5.

Why do you believe you do so well on NRL?

I use the game data as opposed to the final score to assess the true performance of each team in each game. As any avid sports watcher would know, in no way does the best team on the field always win. Often the impact of a lucky bounce of the ball, referee's decisions, or 100 other factors can result in a team winning a match despite playing worse than their opposition. Using the game data rather than the final score to assess performance is effective as there are a lot of indicators of team performance that the NRL “experts” are simply not talking about or considering as they are not aware of them. I come up with my own line for each game and compare that to the market line to find value. I find that I have quite a contrarian approach to betting, and this works very well. I back a lot of underdogs as these are mispriced. The market overrates favourites and underestimates underdogs. Many who watch the NRL would iteratively know this to be true. Regularly the no hope team beats the hot favourite. A mixture of the salary cap, questionable refereeing quality, regular injuries and a number of other factors make the games a lot more variable than the market expects.

In terms of what information, I use for my analysis, I use a wide range of offensive and defensive metrics and use an algorithm to determine accurate team ratings on the back of these numbers. I am of the opinion that the market needs to regress its ratings towards the mean (good teams are overrated and poorer teams are underrated). With these numbers I create a line that the model projects as the true line that should occur if the one particular game was to be played out over a thousand times. I bet on the line market within the NRL. The edge that I quantify is the model’s projected line minus the market line and I bet that edge in units. 

What else do you look at when assessing matches and determining bets? 

Price is key. If the model doesn’t see any value, then I will not be betting, it is as simple as that. I strongly believe in not forcing bets. I love the quote “the best bet you make is the one that you never make “

How will your service work? What types of bets will you send, how many bets per week, unit bank recommended, estimate of weekly units spent? 

I will send out the model’s selections every Tuesday. If there is a lot of market movement (such as the line moving sharply in our favour), then I may notify customers of arbitrage opportunities (e.g., middles bets), that can be very lucrative.

What time will bets normally be released? 

Midday Tuesday, after all of the major Australian bookmakers release their prices.

What information do you provide with each bet? 

With each bet I will provide my rated price/line, the best & second-best prices available with Australian bookmakers (second best of Australian bookmakers will be recorded for official results), and recommended unit investment. Everything required to place the correct bet.

What are your previous results? What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?  

Previous results in 2017-2023 have netted a total of 256 units profit, on average over 36 units profit per season at 9.3% POT. The POT represents and aligns with the overall mathematical edge the model has over the market in my opinion. I have been very happy with my 9.3% POT and 256% ROI over the last 7 years.

That's $3,660 profit per season on average for a $100 per unit punter, and the service costs only $787 per season.

Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use? What odds comparison sites are the best to use?

You can’t beat Topsport for value. TAB is a no brainer for whatever jurisdiction you are in to place a bet in person. The more options you have, the better.

Why sell your tips if it impacts the odds you secure with your own betting?

I bet almost exclusively with overseas bookmakers using Bitcoin. Hence, I have no corporate bookmaker profile in Australia. The bets I place and where members will be betting means we won’t be competing with each other for prices and won’t impact each other’s prices. We’ll all be able to get on at the same time at great prices as we’ll be betting in different jurisdictions with different bookies.

How will the odds be recorded?

The 2nd best price of Australian bookmakers only (excluding Betfair and all overseas bookmakers)

Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the game start? 

I bet straight away. More often than not the line closes in the direction that I bet (beating the closing line value is clearly a positive indicator for the model).

Will I be able to get a decent bet on? 

The bets are on the line market, so yes, a decent sized bet is possible with a number of Australian bookmakers.

Are bets based on a 100-unit betting bank?

Yes, bets and staking are based upon a 100-unit betting bank. I take a different approach to betting that challenges the norms but is still realistic and protects against variance. I will be making a write-up available for members on this. 

Any profit guarantee?

Yes, a profit guarantee applies for all annual/season memberships.

 

Join the NRL Tips service here: NRL Expert Betting Tips and Strategies

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