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In this interview on RSN - Radio & Sport conducted by Nadia Horne, Dean Evans from Winning Edge Investments discusses some ideas on how to filter out non-betting races or horses to avoid in a betting race.

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Read the Interview transcription here: 

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy is with us and what we’re going to discuss today is examples how to potentially filter out non-betting races, or even horses, when we are analysing the form. Dean, a lot of things you do have to take into consideration with the race and also with a particular individual animal.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, well that’s right. I mean there’s sort of wall to wall racing these days. There’s no shortage of races to bet into, so you want to try and be a bit selective on what you bet in and, while none of these are absolute black and white filters where you shouldn’t…you know, we’re not saying you shouldn’t bet at all in a particular race, but they’re a good guide for a way potentially, to look at eliminating certain races as possible betting events so you can focus on ones where you may have a greater chance of winning.

Nadia Horne: Well, first of all, let’s talk about filtering out a race and what about race field size, like if there’s too many or too few starters?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you sometimes get those very small fields say, you know, 5 or 6 runners and you often have many short priced horses in those races and they can be poorly run, tactical affairs 1:01 where the best horse often doesn’t win and inversely you’ve got too many starters, you know sort of 16 runners where luck of running and the like can be a real deciding factor. So sometimes it’s worth sort of filtering out those races, unless there’s great value available.

Nadia Horne: Quite a common one that would pop into most people’s minds would be not to bet in a race where you don’t have enough exposed form.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there are certainly great opportunities with certain maiden races and unclear 1:28 trials and the like but, you know, you find sometimes, for example, in Melbourne they have two year old races or maiden races where there simply isn’t any trial form at all and they’re not unclear 1:40 trial and so you have no real idea of the capacity of a lot of the horses and unclear 1:45. So, when there’s not enough exposed form and you’re guessing too much, then that’s definitely a race to leave alone.

Nadia Horne: Okay. What about when there are too many winning chances?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, again, you know, you sort of find if there’s  4 or more winning chances in a race, it’s sort of difficult to formulate a strategy that long term is going to work because you end up investing too much for too little return. So, you know, unless there’s significant value again in terms of the horse being far greater odds than what you expect and, usually, those races are ones that are worth leaving alone.

Nadia Horne: And also race distances?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, I mean it’s worth considering. Sometimes they’re short sprints, 900 meters, a thousand meters. You know, slightly missing the start, or getting a check in running, or just being caught wide a little can ruin your winning chance and then you’ve got the very long, staying races where you’re dealing with things like tempo and fitness and distance and tactical issues that add to the unpredictability. So, sometimes if you sort of focus on the 1200 to 2000 meter bracket of races, that can help to filter out the more difficult ones.

Nadia Horne: Low classed animals?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, particularly I think out in the country, all those very low benchmark sort of races, you know 55, 58, that sort of thing, the form’s very hard to read and you find the lower classed animals just aren’t consistently predictable in terms of their effort and performance.

Nadia Horne: And, if we talk about track conditions, avoid heavy 10’s?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah look, I think there’s fantastic opportunities, when tracks are wet, to identify and hone in on the wet-trackers. But, you know, something like a heavy 10 will often really be a heavy 11, or a heavy 12,  and they just become real quagmires and even horses that handle wet tracks, often don’t handle that and would handle a heavy 10 one day and not the next, so they’re often just worth leaving alone.

Nadia Horne: And what about when there are too many horses that are first up?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, they just make it very hard to assess ‘how fit are they?’, ‘are they ready to go or are they going around more?’ Unclear 3:42 the future preparations if there are too many first up, it just again makes it hard to predict where to go.

Nadia Horne: And we also have a look at just people who bet on a race for the sake of it.

Dean the Trial Spy: Well, that is what we’re covering.  You know, betting just because you want to have a bet. Any serious punters don’t need action all the afternoon or even every day.  You’ve just got to make sure you’re betting for the right reasons and not just for the sake of it.

Nadia Horne: Sure. So that’s some things for the race, but let’s talk a little bit about how we filter things out in regards to a horse now. If an animal comes through a wet form race?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, it’s important to have a look at the runners that the horse finished close to in previous races and look at what they’ve done since then. You know if you unclear 4:25 run by a horse who was in a race where a lot of the runners have gone out and won since can be quite impressive, but you know, if you find a horse has performed alright in a race where all the other entrants have since failed, that’s often an indicator that the class might have been a lot weaker than it appeared.

Nadia Horne: If they met a last up peak 4:43?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, look, a lot of people sort of feel a horse has put in a big, big performance and think that it’s on the up, but it’s often pretty difficult for horses to repeat a last start effort. It often doesn’t happen. They’re not machines and a career best effort is particularly hard to reproduce or improve on, particularly for well exposed horses.

Nadia Horne: And also a last start gun run?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, if the horse has had, you know, the perfect run at every chance and the market’s sort of waiting on that performance, it can be a risk if, you know, there’s the chance it’s not going to have that same luck again in running due to the barrier or a different set of conditions.

Nadia Horne: And what about if it’s a non-winner?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, look, there are horses that are pack chasers and have very good, you know, speed ratings or class ratings to win a race, but some horses just don’t want to go past others and don’t really have that real will to win and unclear 5:32 on that basis alone.

Nadia Horne: And also, what about if a horse has had too many runs in a campaign?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, most horses sort of gradually taper off towards the end of their campaign and they just have nothing more to give and you want to be sort of, be very wary of a horse that’s had a numbers of runs in a campaign because it’s unlikely they’re going to continue to improve.

Nadia Horne: If you’ve got a poor trainer and jockey?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, look, certainly in combination, you want to be avoiding horses that have both in terms of their profitability stats.  You know, sometimes one or the other can be okay, but unclear 6:06 worth avoiding.

Nadia Horne: If a horse unclear 6:07 poorly?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, that’s an obvious one. If the horse is likely to get caught out pretty wide, or with a tempo over a non-pace in a race full of speed, or a backmarker where they’re drawn inside, or there’s likely to be insufficient pace for them to come home, then, you know, that’s a reason to look out for.

Nadia Horne: And also, if a horse has never run on time.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, that’s an important one. You know, horses can look very impressive and winning by big margins but, you know, you got to really compare to the par times and, whilst you shouldn’t write off a horse based on one slow time, because there can be circumstances such as the wind or the track condition on the day unclear 6:44 or slow early pace. But, if they haven’t proven the ability to run an impressive time in recent starts then, regardless of how impressive that looks, you can often filter those out.

Nadia Horne: And what about if a horse is under the odds?

Dean the Trial Spy: Well, that’s the most important filter of all. You know, it’s not really a question of whether you think the horse can win the race, but is it value, at the odds available, having taken everything into consideration. 

Nadia Horne: Wonderful. Thanks for that, Dean.

Dean the Trial Spy: Alright, thanks very much, Nadia.

Nadia Horne: There’s Dean the Trial Spy just giving us a few pointers on how to filter out a race and also how to filter out a horse. That will just help us to make a profit on the pundits.

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