BLOGS

Just a quick note to let you know that I’ve now completed the upgrade from my data analytics Model 4 to Model 5, and that has necessitated some changes be made to the selection method. Basically, each model has a different sweet spot so it’s not simply a matter of inserting the new in place of the old and carrying on as before. My process for each new model is to spend a few weeks analysing things to determine where the advantage lies, developing the selection methods, and then see how they go before committing to them. That normally takes 6-8 weeks, but in this case it was longer – Model 5 was ready in November – because I had to factor in recent changes to betting markets. One of the goals of the new model was to reduce variance and hopefully you’ll see that in our results as we go forward. Most selections will be in the $3-$16 range so there’ll be a lot fewer longer priced selections. I think that’ll actually be a help for people, as prices have been getting smashed pretty hard lately and those longer priced ones seem to last about 30 seconds meaning that many can’t get on at above the recommended floor price. Selections in the $3-$5 range will be win only and for a full unit, and there should be a bit of an increase in the number of bets we’re having each month.

Model 4 (which is actually more than my 4th model) was a complete cracker and served me very well, but it’s been in use for much longer than normal and has been running out of steam the last few months so it’s good to get Model 5 up and going. Hopefully, it’s as big an improvement over Model 4 as that one was over its predecessor.

For those of you keeping your own betting records, you might want to make a note that the selection process has changed as of 20 February.

Feel free to get in touch if you have any queries or need any help or advice.