Our AFL Expert has held senior positions as Head of Data Analytics, Price Assessment and Trading at some of the biggest and most respected bookmakers in Australia.
Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.
Ever since my early childhood, I've loved playing and watching sport. Enter my early teens and my life was consumed by sport, playing, training or watching every day. I was a dead set sports junkie. In my later teens, I got the taste for punting and the idea of getting paid to watch sport seemed very attractive, so when the opportunity to work at a bookmaker presented, I jumped at it. That was 2 decades ago, and in that time I've held senior positions as Head of Data Analytics, Price Assessment and Trading at some of the biggest and most respected bookmakers in Australia.
How did you get into AFL and how did you turn into a successful long-term punter?
In my early 20s I was approached by one of the senior sports traders and asked if I would be interested in learning how to price markets. I accepted his offer and so my journey of price assessor and punter began. He was a great teacher, not only of pricing but punting as well. I became obsessed with data and statistics and I quickly learned that with accurate pricing, a strong staking plan and discipline, punting can be extremely lucrative.
How do you identify your bets? Where do you find the biggest edges?
Each week I use key metrics to produce a set of prices and lines / margins for each game. I compare those prices to what the bookmakers offer, and identify the value to determine my bets. It's surprising how many people I know that say "That's a big price, I am going to have to halve my stake". I'm the opposite. If I see that something is a big price, I will double my bet. This aligns with the Kelly Criterion theorem of maximising your profits where you have the biggest edge.
Why do you believe you do so well on AFL?
No doubt the experience of having priced these markets for 20 years, combined with the vast connections I've accrued in the industry are my recipe for success.
What else do you look at when assessing matches and determining bets?
Besides using my price assessment to find value in price variance, there are also several key market indicators to watch out for. I also believe the markets are at times slow to react to changed weather conditions. I have also built up a very strong network of associates, so I’m able to act quickly before the market adjusts and will be advising members in these instances so that they can secure great value ahead of the market.
How will your service work? What types of bets will you send, how many bets per week, unit bank recommended, estimate of weekly units spent?
The majority of my bets will be H2H or the Line, but at times I will take aim at a total game points market. There will usually be a best bet for the week, but on average I would generally have between 2 and 5 bets per week and stake between 1-3 units per bet depending on our edge.
Will you send future and long term bets?
Yes. This year I'm very bullish about a couple of top 8 bets in particular.
What time will bets normally be released?
The majority will be soon after all the major Australian bookmakers have released their prices.
What information do you provide with each bet?
With each bet I will provide my rated price/margin/line, the best & second price available with Australian bookmakers (second best price of Australian bookmakers will be recorded for official results), and recommended unit investment.
What are your previous results? What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?
Punting is not a get rich quick scheme but rather an investment that requires discipline and consistency. I aim to achieve a double digit profit margin on my investment; i.e. a minimum of 10% POT.
Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use?
Anywhere that lets you have a bet is a good account to use! I recommend having funded accounts at all bookmakers and shopping for the best value (as you also never know when they will cut you off).
Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the game start?
Bet as early as possible. You don't want to miss out on the price.
Will I be able to get a decent bet on?
This depends on how the bookmakers have your account flagged. Bookmakers will hold a lot on the markets we are betting into, so you should be able to get set to win a few thousand dollars at least.
The Fair Odds Recording Methodology for all bets sent will be based on the 2nd best price of Australian Bookies only, excluding all Overseas bookmakers and Betfair, so there should be no problem getting bets on for punters of all bet sizes, and results will be very easily achievable. Bets are sent once all bookies have prices up and are taking a decent bet to ensure all members can get set.
This service comes with our Profit Guarantee for the season membership. (We are so confident in our package that if you don't profit over the season, we will double the period of your package for FREE! If it doesn't make a profit through our official results, you will get an additional season for FREE! Given members subscribe at different times, simply advise us within 72 hours of being billed of this losing period to be eligible for the refund).