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THE COURSE
The 2019 USPGA Championship heads to Bethpage Black - a municipal (public) course on Long Island in New York, the home of many fine golf links and courses and a host of wealthy New Yorkers.
The Black course is one of the most difficult in the United States and has held a number of major championships, each time gaining the players' respect. Reports from the course suggests the rough will be 3 to 4 inches long. This will favour the straight hitters if it rains and the rough is wet, which is predicted.
Changes to the course in recent years demonstrate that the fairway area is now 1/3 of what it was in 1932 - highlighting the importance of accuracy.
WHO TO BACK?
Markets are much larger this week, for example there is $20,000 to bet on Tiger and $40,000 to bet on Dustin Johnson (note prices quoted are current Betfair prices). Like myself, the punters think Dustin a huge risk.
Most pundits are predicting the bombers to win, players like Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Jason Kokrak, Rory McIlroy. However good strikers like Lucas Glover often win on tight courses with tough rough.
Some bombers who are playing well have been included, along with a host of good strikers who can also win if conditions become tough. Winners need a lot of luck and caution should be given when odds are tight.
TIGER TO ROAR AGAIN?
Tiger made a miraculous comeback to win the Masters, at one of his favourite courses, Augusta National, where he has won five times. Tiger has an amazing record on courses he favours, such as the Farmers Insurance Open (seven times) and a US Open at Torrey Pines, multiple wins at Pebble Beach, Muirfield Village, Kapalua, Bay Hill, Medinah, etc. Tiger is proven at this course, winning a major (US Open) at Bethpage Black.
The setup of the course this week is very penal like a US Open setup - tight and with tough rough. Long hitters with high ball flight or straight hitters who are good iron players will be in the mix. Would you bet against the last major winner at a favourite course with his record? I wouldn’t. At $15 I think he is over the odds. I marked him at $8.5.
CONTENDERS
I see Brooks Koepka as a big threat to Tiger. His record in majors recently is very good and last week at the Byron Nelson his whole approach was about getting everything fine-tuned.
Justin Rose at $22 is about right.
Francesco Molinari at $32 is a real chance, as accuracy will be paramount and his record in the last few years since he has gained length and improved his putting is very good. One shot cost him the Masters. If there is a little rain, I think he's a real chance.
Tony Finau at $44 is reasonable, I marked him $25.
Patrick Cantlay at $50 is a chance, but he is so far a non-winner, balanced against that is the PGA championship often puts up an unheard of non-winner, like Rich Beem or Shaun Micheel, neither of whom have stretched the bookies since.
Jordan Spieth, despite recent form showed some signs last week and if he gets close he can win at $75.
Gary Woodland, one of the great strikers at $80 is a chance.
Kevin Kisner ($150) and Jason Kokrak ($140) have the games to challenge.
Aaron Wise and Matt Wallace (both at $230) appear to have the games to win majors, and the desire.
Jhonattan Vegas at $250 is way overs, he has proven before that the big stage is no problem.
Charles Howell doesn’t win often but $250 is a very good price.
Matthew Fitzpatrick at $250 has shown he doesn’t fear majors.
WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN?
This will be an exhausting PGA championship on a brute of a course in tight, tough conditions that will test all the players' patience and belief.
On Thursday, I will send out my official tips amongst the roughies, but I would suggest a saver at least on Tiger, Molinari and Woodland.
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