Do you have an approach when attacking early betting markets?
In this interview conducted by Nadia Horne on RSN - Racing & Sports, Dean Evans discusses how to successfully approach attacking early betting markets.
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Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy is with us and today we are going to talk about betting markets. We all make sometimes common mistakes when we might jump in a little bit too early and a price drifts, or vice versa we end up taking a price too late after the market has already snapped up the juicy overs. Dean it's a conundrum for punters isn't it, because it can really determine at the end of the year if you win or lose.
Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah morning Nadia, it’s an enormous difference and it’s something that I think most punters just don’t quite understand; just how enormous a difference it can make to your end of year punting bank. Just the different percentages that you can get in terms of getting the best price, it really makes an enormous difference to your P&L at the end of the year.
Nadia Horne: Do you have any theories or any advice that you can give punters on what they should do because now we have got the massive variable of markets opening up on a Wednesday afternoon for say a Saturday meeting. There's a lot of time in which that market can change before race time.
Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah absolutely, it’s certainly a fantastic world for punters these days with the proliferation of corporate bookmakers and the variety of options that there are, and they are getting more and more competitive in terms of offering those early prices, so there certainly are massive opportunities. The first thing I’ll just say to consider is whether you’re betting at in the country or provincial or metro meetings, when you’re taking those early prices. Certainly in the country, sometimes markets open at 140% or 150% so you have to know those markets have a lot of room to move, but with the proliferation of corporate bookies as you say the Saturday markets will often open on a Wednesday or Thursday. Sometimes 125% to 130% before Saturday. So they’re reasonably competitive, but still with room to move, but it is a case on whether you believe a horse will drift with those metro meetings, whether on top fluc or betfair for example. I guess a key element is knowing what price you rate the horse at, and your rated price on the specific horse or horses that you are wanting to back and then when markets open, it’s a case of seeing whether the available price is substantially larger than your rated price. If there's a large discrepancy and you're confident the horse is going to firm in many cases it’s a case of diving right in, if you're unsure of your market movement expectation of a runner, a tactic often used by professionals is averaging in, and it's the same concept as share traders often use where they buy shares they want to be long in over a period days, or sometimes in their case weeks or months. With racing, you could have say half your bet at the best opening price, and then wait between 10 minutes and start time to have your other half, by monitoring the corporate bookies, the bookies at the track if you’re there, Betfair and the totes and basically following the market trends and movements and taking the best price available from all of your available options.
Nadia Horne: It’s probably the safest way for punters who may not so much frame their own markets and have that to work off, the fact that they can take the best price early, and then they can sort of the other half of the wager when the market has really settled down and you can see how it is treating a certain runner that you like, because as we mentioned earlier there can be huge ramifications to your end of year result if you keep on pulling the wrong rein on this.
Dean the Trial Spy: Absolutely, and there’s also quite a strong mental aspect, I think. People can get very frustrated if they take an early price and see the horse drift a lot and win. And vice versa get frustrated if they like the horse and they don't have a cent on it early and they see it get absolutely crunched to a point where they’re taking a very low price. So, sometimes averaging in is a good mental aspect that you’ve at least got top of market for 50% of your bet. There a couple of bookies these days who are offering a product where you can take a fixed price, then we paid at the best tote or SP if higher which is an amazing product if those particular bookies don’t ban you. There’s others offering the best of the 3 totes, SP or top fluc on Saturday races so that can help if you expect a horse to drift. But it certainly does depend on what type of races you’re betting on. I know with a service that I provide, Trial Spy, we're betting into smaller markets and we're betting into maiden races, and we're looking for horses that have a big edge. A very recent example is, Trial Spy members, we had two bets on Tuesday. Enigami opened $4 and started $3.30 and won, and then Mystic Angel was $6.50 when we sent out the SMS, it won and paid $3.50 best tote, so the difference in profit betting early can be substantial, and the difference between getting $6.50 and $3.50 over the long term is monumental as you say. We have had horses open $34 and start $6 and win. So, taking the early prices is something I teach strongly to my Trial Spy members. I usually send out my bets as soon as markets open early in the morning, and let members secure the price or manage appropriately if required through out the day. Probably one important fact for your listeners to consider is it’s certainly a fact that more firmers in the market win than drifters. So I’m of the belief in many cases if you’re confident on a runner, you’re often best to take the best available fixed price early in the long term, as you’re securing far more value on winners. Whilst in many cases drifters, although you won’t get the best price, a far smaller percentage of them win anyway, so if you’re leaning one way or the other I often lean towards taking that early price.
Nadia Horne: You bring up some very good thoughts, just one other thing probably to touch on is, sometimes we got put off when we see advertised that they bet $14 about a horse that jumps at about $5 or $6. The thing to keep in your mind is that price would not be around for too long, if they’ve made a blue in a market, not many people have gotten on that big price.
Dean the Trial Spy: That is absolutely true and they often some of the bookmakers like to spruik the fact a horse started at big odds and was backed in, but as you say it’s often only one or two people who got on for, probably an insubstantial amount money, and so that price really wasn’t available to most people, so it really is up to your rated price at the end of the day. If you rate a horse $9 and it was $14 it's now $6, you’re best not to take the $6 in the long term. If you rated that horse $4 and it's $14 into $6, well you’re still fine to take the $6 as you’re still making a value bet.
Nadia Horne: You bring up some very good points Dean, thank you
Dean the Trial Spy: No worries, thank you very much Nadia.
Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy talking about markets and maybe some betting suggestions for punters now that we do have the option now of markets opening up a lot earlier than what they once were.
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