BLOGS

Weekly/Monthly Wrap

A good week with +10u profit at 21% POT. We had 10 winners from 24 races, plus 6 2nds (40u worth) and 3 3rds.

Of the last 15 bets we've had 8 winners, 6 placegetters and only 1 horse unplaced.

Another good month making nearly +20u profit in May, after +51u profit in April.

We've had a number of new members join the trial recently, so thought we would update the FAQS with some more details for both new and old members.

STRIKERS FAQS

Who is the analyst and how are the selections derived?

The analyst currently wishes to remain private but has been in the industry betting for a long time, including owning horses in the Legal Eagle Syndicate with the likes of Tommy Smith (Champion Trainer Gai Waterhouse's father), and Dr Percy Sykes, with Malcolm Johnston riding for them. Having spent 7 years developing this process, this is a system based approach with 13 rules (recently adjusted down from 16 which testing shows increases profits) to determine and validate the selections. The process is adapting over time which changes the volume and price range of the selections. As we gather more fully verified data, we will be working closely to maximise the efficacy of the approach. Although the results have been exceptional over the past 250 verified bets, and the previous unverified periods, we know that more data and backtesting analysis will improve the results further.

Do you believe the high strike rate will continue?

It depends. To elaborate, it depends on whether we want it to. There are a number of ways to assess the success of a service, but ultimately the most important factor is overall profit. If reducing the strike rate based on rule adjustments or filters means increasing profit, then this is the best approach. But the aim is for this to be a high strike rate service, with lower variance/drawdown and higher POT%. Based on the current average win price of $2.50, any strike rate of over 40% will be profitable. We will continue to forward and back test to optimise these. We are also performing ongoing test on each of the 13 rules, and may reduce these over time if it will improve the strike rate, POT% and profit. As with any process, we will continue to optimise this over time, and adjust for changing market factors.

What if I want to maintain a 50% strike rate and minimise variance or a run of outs?

Below are the stats based on the 250 bets to date (based on BOB prices):

Horses at odds $2 and under: +23u PROFIT at 15% POT and 70% Win Strike Rate

Horses at odds $3 and under: +69u PROFIT at 22% POT and 60% Win Strike Rate

Overall: +77u PROFIT at 16% POT and 46% Win Strike Rate

If you wanted to maintain a high strike rate, and minimise runs of outs and variance, you could choose only to back horses at odds of $3 and lower. As you are betting BOB, you could simply base your assessment on the price at the time the tips are sent. It's entirely dependent on your level of comfort, and also ability to handle missing some of the big winners. For example if you choose to stick with the higher strike rate approach backing only the winners at $3 and under, don't blame us if you miss a big winner like Roccabascerana at $9 (18u collect) last week!

What is the best way to back the selections?

BOB is the best way to back these selections, rather than at fixed odds when the bets are sent. Some examples based on $100 per unit:

Better Than Best. 10am fixed price $2.50. BOB Price $4.30. 3.6u or $360 difference.

Hightail. 10am fixed price $5. BOB Price $7.50. 5u or $500 difference.

Kissonallforcheeks. 10am fixed price $2.90. BOB Price $3.80. 1.8u or $180 difference.

Trutiara. 10am fixed price $3.80. BOB Price $5.10. 2.6u or $260 difference.

Roccabascerana. 10am fixed price $6.50. BOB Price $9. 5u or $500 difference.

This is one reason why we so strongly recommend betting with Vicbet or David Dwyer, and are encouraging you to open accounts with them, because it will maximise your profits over having some plain bookies betting fixed odds at 10am. The other reason is that members betting at fixed odds at 10am are not only costing themselves profits, but they are reducing the odds for other members as early market support might lead to a horse firming in betting, or not drifting as much, which would negatively impact the final BOB price. Hence why we are offering free trial incentives to joining Vicbet & David Dwyer.

The BOB product is offered by both David Dwyer and Vicbet.

Vicbet offers BOB on every single meeting in Australia, every single day.

David Dwyer is a proper bookie who will take a big bet, and won't ban you. He wants to grow his turnover and is also offering specials to Winning Edge clients including BOB on all Sat Metro races & all NSW Metro & Provincial races, plus special weekly offers.

Sign up to Vicbet and in the 'where did you hear about us' dropdown state 'Winning Edge Investments'. Then e-mail us with your deposit amount. Any deposit gets a 1 week free Strikers trial, a $500 or more deposit gets a 2 week free Strikers trial.

Sign up to David Dwyer, and e-mail him to let him know you are a Winning Edge member so you get the special offers. Then e-mail us with your deposit amount. Any deposit gets a 1 week free Strikers trial, a $1000 or more deposit gets a 1 month free Strikers trial.

David Dwyer: https://davedwyer.mytrackprice.com/register

Vicbet: https://www.vicbet.com/new-account.asp

The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks

The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:

n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets)
ln = natural logarithm1
P = probability2
| .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

Simply put, let's say you are betting on Heads in a coin toss (with a 50% expected value). You are still going to have runs of losing streaks and winning streaks.

Over 500 coin tosses, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 9 losers in a row during that period.

If your Strike Rate is 40%, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 12 losers in a row during that period.

It's very important to understand and appreciate this, and realise that even on a losing day, the next winner and winning streak is also statistically set to occur.

On the positive side, over 500 coin tosses, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 9 winners in a row during that period, and if your Strike Rate is 40%, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 7 winners in a row during that period.

So far during the testing period, Strikers has had winning runs of 7 in a row, and losing runs of 8 in a row, but has still made $7,700 profit to date.

This also means that both the biggest winning run, and the biggest losing run, are still to come, statistically likely within the next 300 bets or 2 months.

In fact, on say a 40% win strike rate, the expected time of occurrence of 5 losers in a row is after just 13 bets, and 10 losers in a row after just 165 bets.

Once you aware of this, you realise the power of simply following the staking and not getting too emotional over any winning or losing day.

Stick with the service and the strategy, and the profits will continue to flow.

Trial Auto Renew

Please be advised that if you are on a trial of any period, the service will auto-renew to the monthly service once your trial period ends.

If you want to upgrade to a quarterly or annual membership that comes with a profit guarantee and discounted rate, you can login to the Member Login area, go to Subscriptions, and press Change to upgrade your service.

If you don't wish to continue, please ensure you login to the Member Login area, go to Subscriptions, and cancel. You can e-mail us if you have any issues with this.

Want to join?

If you want to join Strikers, simply go to the link below to sign up now.

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/strikers/

Questions?

We trust you've been enjoying the simplicity and high profitability and strike rate of the Strikers service so far.

If you have any questions at all for us, simply reply, and we'll be happy to reply and add to our FAQs. 

Kind Regards,

Member Success Team

Winning Edge Investments