BLOGS

Week in Review

Saturday 31st  October

+6.0u at 50% POT

2 winners from 6 selections

33% Strike Rate

Winners: Victoria Quay $7.00, Star Of Uma $2.00

Comments: Despite the positive result for the day, I am very disappointed in the 3 short priced horses that didn’t fire a shot as they looked very strong chances on the data I had. Chaillot was another close beat with a 32u return missed by less than 1L taking us to a whopping 77.7u missed by 1L or less this month.

Selection Review

Victoria Quay $7.00 (1st 14u return) – got us off to a profitable day and I had very high hopes of a huge day after this win, she looked like the best horse on the data and Jamie Kah gave her a gun ride and she was able to get over the top of the favourite. Adelaide form and ratings should not be underrated.

Star Of Uma $2.00 (1st 4u return) – this race went according to script with the horse going to the front and leading all the way.

Tequila Time $2.90 (UNP) – I don’t think he was given the best ride here, horses tend to want to race where they are comfortable and he wanted to go forward but Holder had him under heavy restraint and he expelled a lot of energy fighting the hold. When asked for an effort he had already used up his energy and didn’t give anything, he may not have won if circumstances were different but he wasn’t given the chance.

Chaillot $16.00 (4th 0.8L from a 32u return) – wow, what a performance considering how far back she was where she had to make a long sustained run with an official 600m-200m split of 21.88 before peaking late in just her 3rd run back off a very long spell. This race will set her up nicely and she will be winning next start in any class if she steps up to 1800m-2000m.

Time To Sizzle $2.20 (UNP) – very disappointing, she had a great run behind a slow speed and gave nothing at all in the straight which was in complete contrast to her last start where she was very dynamic. I would fully expect a rebound next start.

Niccovi $3.00 (UNP) – she was a notable drifter and may have been left flat off her first up run, I also expect her to rebound next start.

Summary

It was a pleasing result with a +6u day but I was expecting a lot more based on the data available with some horses just not performing to expectation. In circumstances like this it is not uncommon to question the selections or the methodology but in many cases, things just don’t pan out on the day. Overall, we had a fantastic month which was the 2nd biggest month in the model’s short history but given we had 77.7u missed by 1L or less this month, it could have been sensational.

I will be previewing the Melbourne Cup Day and Oaks Day meeting on Tuesday and Thursday of next week so keep an eye out for emails at the 11:15am release time. There will not be any Cup selections however there may be a few races that provide selections across the day.

October Results Final

+47.6u at 86.5% POT

13 winners from 28 selections

46% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+71.2u at 36.1% POT

10/17 Winning Weeks

3/4 Winning Months

Long Term Model Results

68/99 Winning Days – 68.69%

17/22 Winning Months – 77.27%

44.9% Strike rate

+457.5u at 49.6% POT

Model Updates

It is coming up to the end of 2020 and I will be reviewing the model’s performance and looking at areas where improvements can be made to ensure we maintain the high levels of performance that have been built it to its design. I also have several new functions that will be built into the model over the next few months to improve efficiency and expand on the ability to find the right races to preview.

I have high expectations of even greater performance in 2021 once all the updates are completed.

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo