SPEED STARS WEEKLY REVIEW - APRIL 3RD

Saturday 3RD April

+0.4u at 5% POT

1 winners from 7 selections (5 betting races)

14% Strike Rate

Winners: Hungry Heart $6.40

Comments: A really strong win by Hungry Heart coming from a long way back on an inside rail biased track, Riddle Me That a certainty beaten costing us 5.9u.

 

Selection Review

Tier 1

Rosehill

Race 8 Rock $4.40 (UNP) – this was a high pressure race with severe drop offs of all horses over the last 400m, his performance here was many lengths inferior to his first up run partially due to lane disadvantage. The inside lanes were white hot and in some cases up to 5L faster than some other lanes over the final 200m.

 

Tier 2

Rosehill

Race 5 Roheryn $11.20 Tier 2 (3rd) – quite a slow early pace to the 800m with a 13L increase in speed between the 800-400 and further 1.3L exertion over the last 400m. Off 49 days the mid race exertion may have left him a bit flat over the final 400m but he still ran the 9th best last 400m and 10th best last 200m ratings of the meeting.

Race 5 California Zimbol $4.50 Tier 2 (UNP) – she raced a bit keen for a portion of the race and this may have left her a bit flat over the last 400m which was around 3L slower than her first up performance. Not quite sure what to make of the performance around 4L below his first up run.

Race 6 Hungry Heart $6.40 (1st for a 6.4u return) – another very high pressure race with massive drop offs over the last 400m for all horses, she had a big mid race exertion and was able to sustain a strong run over the last 800m making up 8L on the leader despite being lane disadvantaged.

Race 6 Impecunious $15.00 (3rd) – I was confident she would run a good race and she probably should have finished closer as she had to change direction twice in the straight.

 

Caulfield

Race 2 Canadian Gold $7.00 (UNP) – the market gave her a good chance when back in from $7.00 to $5.50 but she did not have the dash she did on debut. The race itself rated quite low on the day.

Race 8 Riddle Me That $11.80 (4th 0.8L from a 5.9u return) – I am 100% confident that if he had clear running in the straight, he would have won the race very convincingly. He was held up for almost the entire straight and only asked for an effort over the final 50m where he accelerated hard beaten only 0.8L. It was a hard watch and cost us 5.9u.

 

Summary

A small win on the day, disappointed in a couple of performances and shattered by the bad luck encountered by Riddle Me That at a big price..

 

April Results to Date

+0.4u at 5% POT

1 winner from 7 selections (5 betting races, 1 horse beaten by less than 1L for a 5.9u return)

14% Strike Rate

 

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+49.1u at 13.6% POT

17/34 Winning Weeks

5/9 Winning Months (missed 2 weeks in March 2021 due to family reasons resulting in a loss)

3/3 Winning Quarters

 

Long Term Model Results

77/122 Winning Days – 63.11%

19/27 Winning Months – 70.37%

9/9 Winning Quarters – 100.00%

41.2% Strike rate

+435.4u at 40.1% POT

 

Tier 2 Selections

The Tier 2 selections began on Saturday and there were 2 races with more than 1 selection, this will not be the normal scenario but sometimes I may see an opportunity to back 2 horses that meet the criteria if the value is there. Maximum stake in any race will be 2u and all Tier 1 horses will have the full 2u stake.

 

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo