BLOGS

Saturday 24th April

+2.9u at 25% POT

2 winners from 7 selections (7 betting races)

28% Strike Rate

Winners: Royal Mile $4.50, Lost And Running $2.70

Comments: A couple of nice wins including one from a future star, some excuses for a couple of horses I felt were a strong chance and one of the most heavily backed horses beaten by a big improver.

Selection Review

Tier 1

Randwick

Race 9 Lost And Running $2.70 (1st for a 5.4u return) – he completely lived up to my expectation and blew the field away in a very impressive performance. I expect him to continue to improve and he will be a Group 1 winner in the future.

Caulfield

Race 6 #1 Alfa Oro $3.40 (UNP) – beaten 1.4L after being found to have had EIPH, the significant drift in betting late was a clear sign all was not well with the horse with his overall performance down 4L off his previous run. The race rated quite poorly overall, had he been able to repeat his last start run he would have won quite comfortably.

Race 7 #4 Mahamedeis $4.60 (UNP) – another early favourite that was very soft in the market, despite that it was a very poorly judged ride with a farcical early speed where Rhys McLeod told stewards the horse “raced greenly” which is garbage. He was holding the horse back on the slow speed causing him to over race and then asked him to race 18L faster from the 800m, he was very flat from the 400-200 before picking up 2.5L over the last 200m. A more positive ride early to sit outside the leader or even lead himself on a comfortable speed, would have given him a chance to win.

Doomben

Race 6 #1 Tycoon Evie $2.25 (2nd 0.5L from a 4.5u return) – in the preview I wrote that she was very consistent and it would take a standout performance to beat her which is exactly what happened. She was around $2.70 in the morning and started $2.10 returning a rating within 0.5L of most of her runs this preparation, the winner improved around 7L off her average performance and 4L on her career peak. Unfortunately this is something that can’t often be foreseen.

Morphettville

Race 9 #1 Royal Mile $4.50 (1st for a 9u return) – he was ridden upside down which proved to be a very good decision given the slow pace of the race, he saw out the distance with no concerns and won quite easily.

Tier 2

Randwick

Race 8 Phaistos $10.00 (UNP) – he jumped very well and Bowman took him back and went to sleep, when he woke up he was near last and got stuck up in traffic where he had to go right around the outside (losing momentum) before running the best last 200m of the race. If Bowman was more switched on he would have made a move sooner and been in a better position come the final 200m, beaten just 1.4L but I believe should have been fighting out the finish.

Morphettville

Race 2 Zarace $21.00 (UNP) – he was not able to recapture his ratings from last preparation.

April Results

-2.6u at -9% POT

4 winners from 23 selections (21 betting races, 4 horses beaten by less than 1L for an 18.7u return)

17% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+46.1u at 12.1% POT

17/37 Winning Weeks

5/10 Winning Months (missed 2 weeks in March 2021 due to family reasons resulting in a loss)

3/3 Winning Quarters

Long Term Model Results

78/125 Winning Days – 62.40%

19/28 Winning Months – 67.86%

9/9 Winning Quarters – 100.00%

40.5% Strike rate

+432.4u at 39.0% POT

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo