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Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis
Monday, 20 June 2022
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It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review.
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The review was conducted with the following points in mind:
- Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June
- Heavy track meetings excluded (no suggested options)
- Suggested Win bets only using BOB
- 2 unit bets for all Best Meeting Win bets
- 1 unit bets for all Race Win bets
Total Meetings Reviewed – 21
Meeting Best Win Bet Results
Bets: 14
Wins: 5
Strike Rate: 36%
Turnover: 28u
Return: 40.2u
P/L: +12.2u
POT: +44%
Race Win Bet Results
Bets: 45
Wins: 13
Strike Rate: 29%
Turnover: 45u
Return: 59u
P/L: +14u
POT: +31%
Combined Results
Bets: 59
Wins: 18
Strike Rate: 31%
Turnover: 73u
Return: 99.3u
P/L: +26.3u
POT: +36%
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Top 4 Rating Results
The results below show the percentage of winners found in the Top 4 rated horses for each race with the following points in mind:
- Conducted on Race Previews for Saturday only meetings from 9th April to 11th June
- Heavy track meetings excluded (always low confidence on Heavy tracks)
- Speed Data Quality level ignored
- Includes races with equal rated horses
All Results (174 Races)
Top 1: 25%
Top 2: 40%
Top 3: 53%
Top 4: 58%
April Results (60 Races)
Top 1: 22%
Top 2: 35%
Top 3: 55%
Top 4: 60%
May Results (79 Races)
Top 1: 27%
Top 2: 44%
Top 3: 53%
Top 4: 57%
June Results (35 Races)
Top 1: 29%
Top 2: 40%
Top 3: 51%
Top 4: 57%
Conclusion
The results of the Meeting Best Win and Race Win suggested betting options have been performing well and will become more of a focus from now on, with Place and Lay bet options removed.
Winners from the Top 4 rated have been ok and have room for improvement. The ratings are based solely on the Speed Rating I assign to each horse and this process continues to evolve. I expect to see these figures rise over the next few months.
After looking at all suggested bet options, I have decided that the E/W, Place and Lay options are not something I will continue with moving forward so they have been excluded from the review. I will note future changes at the end of the review.
Race Assessment Changes
As previously mentioned, I will be focusing on Win options only from now on and will include a brief explanation for each Race Win option suggested.
Cheers,
Mat
