WINNING EDGE PODCAST

In this interview with Nadia Horne on RSN Winners, professional Dean the Trial Spy covers stats regarding the profitability of backing horses at different ages.
 

Winning Edge Investments · Profitability Of Backing Horses at Different Ages

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Read the Interview transcription here:

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy joins us, how are you Dean?

Dean Evans: I’m great Nadia, how are you going?

Nadia Horne: Yeah great. Look, today we are going to discuss some stats around how profitability varies based on the age of the galloper, focusing mainly on metro races throughout the last year or so. Do you look at this? How important do you feel that age of a galloper is?

Dean Evans: Well, certainly there are some interesting insights when you run the stats on it and obviously different ages have different levels of considerations that you need to take. You’ve got the two and three year olds that are less exposed and a lot of horses are often hyped up and you can be unsure of how much they’ve developed from campaign to campaign. Then you’ve got the really older horses that are often taking on the younger horses with the bigger weights and that sort of thing.  So it’s interesting to take a look to see how profitability varies, and where the markets sort of over betting and under betting the age as a factor.

Nadia Horne: Okay. Well let’s talk a little bit about the profitability by age of all the favorites, what have you found out here?

Dean Evans:So looking exclusively at favorites, the benchmark was around a 3.8 percent loss at best tote. For two year olds they were bang on benchmark, so being accurately assessed by the market there. Three year olds were 4.6 percent worse than benchmark which seemed to suggest that the number of hyped up three year olds that seemed to perform worse than the market expect, potentially when they go on from that two year old year to that three year old year and taking on horses that are further developed. The four and five year old around bang on benchmark but what’s really interesting is when you get to the six year olds which are 12 percent better than benchmark, seven year olds 30 percent better than benchmark and then eight year olds 10 percent better than benchmark. So it suggests that older horses who are favorites are performing much better than the market expects and are running true to form, and it seems if there is market support for them and they are favorites, they are running well and the market expects them to run well but they are still not factoring it enough, there’s enough push back I guess, due to their age, so there is still an edge there backing those runners.

Nadia Horne: Let’s talk about the runners under ten to one.

Dean Evans:Yeah, important to horses under ten to one. Two year olds performed below market expectations, about 1.6 per cent below benchmark. Three, four, five, six year olds, all around bench mark really at that level, and interestingly, the old horses, seven year olds with 6 percent better than benchmark. So again, if  an old horse is favored, it seemed like the market isn’t entirely giving it as much credit as it should.

Nadia Horne: What about runners under 2000 metres?

Dean Evans: All two year olds run under 2000 metres and that falls at 1.5 percent below benchmark. Three year olds are half a percent above benchmark and four year olds are 1 percent above benchmark, and five year olds about the same. What’s interesting is, you know we are talking about how six year old plus were performing a lot better than benchmark, and when under 2000 metres, they actually performed below market expectations, between two and three percent below benchmark. So for the older horses, it seemed that under 2000 metres, they’re not actually performing as the market expects whereas the younger three and four year old horses are.

Nadia Horne: What about 2000 metres plus?

Dean Evans: Well, this is where the older horses nearly come into their own. Six year olds 6 per cent better than benchmark, seven year olds, 21 per cent better than benchmark and eight year olds, 2 per cent better than benchmark. So again, it’s really those races over 2000 metres plus, the older horses do appear to be excellent betting propositions. What’s interesting is three year olds 6 percent below benchmark, four year olds are 4 percent below benchmark, five year olds are 3 percent below benchmark. So in the same races, it just seems like the market really are underselling the ability of the older horses who are fully developed and are continuing to grow and clearly performing well over the 2000 metres distance, while the horses between the ages of three to five are being over bet in terms of what the market expects them to do.

Nadia Horne: You bring up some great points as always, Dean. Thank you.

Dean Evans: Alright, thanks Nadia.

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