FREE BETTING INFORMATION

Perspective and Building An Investment Mentality

Winning Edge Investments was created to change the face of tipping services in Australia.

This is an industry where some services simply fabricate their completely unverified, unaudited and unachievable results at the end of the year, when they deliberately chose not to transparently disclose these throughout the year. Some don't post their results for months during losing periods. Others record their odds using unachievable methodologies such as the highest possible fixed odds price at any time in betting. Another actually records at the highest of the highest fixed price at the time the bet is sent, or the highest of any other price during betting including Betfair SP (without commission removed), whilst neither actually advise you whether to bet early or late. Incredibly, others promote corporate bookmakers with their tipping services, hence receiving commission payments based on your losses.

You can read a lot more about their tricks here: 

12 ways to spot a questionable tipping service

We decided to create a service that offered services from only the best quality analysts, highly respected in the industry for their knowledge and expertise, with proven track records of success. We decided to transparently post results to accurately reflect the realities of investing, which comes with highs and lows, but ultimately results in enormous success for those with the mental willpower to succeed in the investing world. We decided to record results fairly, based on the actual advice given before the event, achievable even for those who work full time and only have a few minutes each day to place their bets.

Ultimately, the proof is in the pudding. Had you signed up to all 8 of our racing services on 1 January 2019, taking a quarterly membership to all, utilising our discount offers, profit guarantee and automatic loyalty bonus credits, you would have made a 396% tax-free ROI on your membership investment. An $8,017 investment would have collected $31,790 (betting $100 per unit).

Had you done so since 1 January 2018 you would have made a 518% tax-free ROI on your membership investment. A $20,294 investment would have collected $105,200 (betting $100 per unit). Of course the investment remains stagnant, whilst the dollars invested per unit increase linearly with your unit size, so betting $200 per unit would have amassed $210,400 from the $20,294 investment over 2 years, and so on.

This is why the most famous investor in the world, Warren Buffet, has a famous quote: "My favourite holding period is forever"

This is despite 2 of the services in 2018, and 2 different services in 2019, making a loss over the calendar year.

Across our 8 racing services, we had 18 profitable months out of 24, at an average profit of 68 units per month.

There were only 6 unprofitable months out of 24, at an average loss of 30 units per month.

Overall, an average profit of 44 units per month.

Take a look at the biggest success stories in stocks. Apple Shares last year dropped from $225 to $148. An unintelligent, jittery investor would have sold at the low point of $148, and missed out on the recent gains that have seen the latest share price reach $318.

Google Shares (Alphabet) also at a similar time fell from $1,252 to $991. Again the short term, jittery investor would have sold at $991, with Google shares reaching a recent high of $1,480.

Unfortunately some with a short term mindset do the same with tipping services. Despite these services having proven themselves as highly profitable over long periods of time, members get jittery and stop, usually just before the next big winning run.

An article explaining variance in more detail can be found below:

Variance and the importance of sound bankroll management

Our previous advice has stated you should need a 100 unit betting bank per service. Whilst this is the case for a single service, we are revising this advice for multiple services. If subscribing to 8 services, that would mean an 800-unit bank would have been required. However, the biggest losing month in 2 years was 105 units, and the biggest losing period was 133 units. Our new advice no longer suggests an 800 unit bank for 8 services, but still conservatively allocates a 400 unit bank to 8 services.

No fanfare or crazy claims. Just a legitimate opportunity to turn 2020 into the year where you start turning your passion into serious long term, tax-free profits.

Speed Stars

The reality of variance

Our Speed Stars model won a remarkable +436 units profit at 44.6% POT in under 2 years.

Anyone looking at those numbers on paper would understand and appreciate that those are incredible numbers, and it is a no brainer to invest in such a successful betting model.

However, dig deeper into those incredible results & it’s never simple smooth sailing every day or month.

Long Term Model Results

70/106 Winning Days – 66.0%        That is 36 losing days, or 1 in every 3 days is a loss

17/23 Winning Months – 73.9%       That is 6 losing months, or 1 in every 4 months is a loss

Explanation

Hopefully for some of you the penny has dropped. But let us explain what the point of that exercise was. Successful property and share investors like Warren Buffet focus on the long term. They buy houses, or stocks, because of their long-term growth potential, and then usually ignore them over a long period, to give them the chance to grow. Property owners don’t sit there having the bank revalue their property every day, week, month or even year. Indeed there are many very successful stock investors that also avoid the temptation of checking their stock portfolios any more than once a quarter, and when they do, they hope for a downturn, as it’s an opportunity to buy more quality stock at a discount, which is the opposite of most investors.

When you subscribe to a service, you should generally have done your research. You know & trust the analyst, or you know and trust the company offering a new analyst’s services. You set up a bank for that service, and you trust that if you follow their selections & betting information, you will ultimately end up with a positive result.

So at what point does your belief in that original plan waive? That is actually something you should define upfront. Write down how much of a downturn you are willing to endure before giving up, and stick to it. When the inevitable downturn occurs, take that piece of paper and listen to your past, unemotional, not frustrated, intelligent investor self.

But you know what’s funny? We can’t possibly conceive how anyone could write anything other than: when the 100-unit bank is gone. Otherwise, why have a 100 unit bank? If you are going to quit a service after it makes a 50u loss, then your bank size is incorrect.

Let’s say you have a $10k bank. The point of that bank is to protect your capital, but it is capital you are prepared to invest. So, you have a $10k bank, and will bet $100 per unit. But if you plan to give up and unsubscribe or stop following a service after losing $5k, then surely your bank should only be $5k? Therefore, you should only bet $50 per unit, and let your bank last longer.

LIGHTBULB!

Of course bank management is vital, particularly when you are following multiple services, and a very important article on this topic is available in this Members Information Pack:

How to manage your betting banks following multiple services‏

The key point of the above article is that you must have a separate bank for every service you follow, otherwise one poor performing service can wipe out your entire bank and portfolio. Secondly, it mentions that you should allocate the size of each bank to your overall confidence in the service. So some services might have a $20k bank, some a $10k bank and some a $5k bank, for example.

People’s reactions to variance

We have been offering services publicly for 6 years now, and per the above have experienced, along with our members, many drawdown periods during that time. There are 3 reactions we see from members during what is (in their opinion) a period of substantial or sustained drawdown.

They cancel their subscription

Whilst there are numerous reasons a member may cancel a subscription (often having nothing to do with the service itself - e.g. moving overseas, work conditions changing etc), a drawdown period certainly is one of them. New members can be trigger happy when they first start and don’t see the immediate positive results shown on the results spreadsheets. Some members just cannot handle a big losing day, so if there is one day that is a wipe-out, they jump ship. Others cannot handle a sustained losing period. It all mounts up in their head, and even though the losing figure may not be substantial in comparison to their bank, they cannot see the light, and give up. For us, the sad element is how many times we have seen a member cancel and have their subscription lapse just a day or two before the inevitable enormous winning day, week and or month.

They decide to stop betting for a while until results improve

If you’ve done this before, give yourself a slap in the face, then go back and read this article again. Can you imagine how many profits you would have missed out on by doing this? It’s mathematically flawed, as you have endured the drawdown, and will now miss out on the impending upswing. Ultimately if you’ve lost faith in the service, then you must decide whether to cancel the service, or reduce your bank allocation for that service, and hence the units you invest. There are of course times this is appropriate, but if you make a decision, stick to it. Don’t just stop betting, and then go back once profits have been made. It’s a quick way to disappointment, frustration, and reduced profits.

As a side note, studies have shown that if say a managed fund makes 10% profit per year, the average mum & dad investor in the fund often makes only half of that. That’s because when they hear bad news they sell, and then when things are good again they buy back into the same or a new managed fund. Ever heard someone advise you to BUY HIGH and SELL LOW? No, but that’s what most people do with shares, and what a lot of punters do when following services as well. They either jump ship and try another service out at the wrong time, or they stop betting until results improve, costing themselves the inevitable profits.

They reduce their stakes

If this sounds familiar, give yourself a slap on the other cheek. Whilst better than stopping betting completely, unless you have done your research and decided to stick with that decision for the long term (because you’ve reduced your bank and allocated it to another service), then this is again a mathematically flawed decision.

It’s always darkest before the dawn…

Using Trial Spy as an example, in July 2014 we had lost 9 units. In the preceding month in June, we had only won 9 units. So over the previous 2 months we had basically broken even.

As a result of this flat-lining, some members unsubscribed.

Then on 2 August 2014, we won 63 units for the day, which included a $30 winner, a $400 exacta and a $3,700 trifecta.

This also was the start of a 234 unit winning run (without a drawdown of over 20u) over the next 242 days…

Similarly in November 2014 we lost nearly 15u for the month

Again, as a result of this, a couple of members unsubscribed…

Just before a big run of 67u profit in the next 17 days in December

Greyhound Genius is another service that serves as a great example. This service has made 1,104 units profit over the past 5 years, an average of 220.8 units profit per year. The worst result over the past 5 years has been a 172.6 unit profit.

Yet from August 2015 to October 2015 it had 3 losing months in a row totalling a -50u LOSS. Had a member unsubscribed at this point, they would have missed out on the 141.4 unit PROFIT in November 2015, and in fact a total of 261.9 units PROFIT over the next 4 winning months. In August 2016 the service made a -49.6 unit LOSS, followed by a 120.9 unit PROFIT the next month in September 2016, and 5 winning months in a row generating 228.1 units PROFIT. In February/March 2017, 2 losing months worth 82.2 units LOSS were followed by 278.3 units PROFIT over the next 12 months for a 196.1 unit PROFIT over the 2 month period.

Caveat

Please note the caveat on all of the above is that you must be following proven, successful, reputable and respected analysts or tips service providers for the above to be valid. It actually doesn’t apply to most tipping service providers, but that comes back to your research and why you selected that particular service in the first place. Which is a topic for another day.

Conclusion

The point of this article was to put some perspective on losing runs. When it comes to this service, although they are unavoidable, they are also (comparatively) short lived, and as the analysis showed, ultimately inconsequential when taking a long-term view.

The challenge is dealing with the mental side of things as they are occurring. Every day placing the bets, watching the bad rides, or photo finish beats, or horses running way down the track, and later appearing injured or lame in steward’s reports. It feels like it’s all happening at once, because it is! That’s what happens during a downturn, and that’s what a drawdown period is. But if you can get out of the ‘day/week/month unit swing’ mentality, and into the ‘biennial unit swing’ mentality, then you will hit investor nirvana, and will reach success, happiness and profit maximisation in far quicker time.