BLOGS

Q: Hi Mark, pleasure to have you on board. Tell us a bit about yourself and your background. How did you get into racing and how did you turn into a successful long term punter?

A: My interest in racing has been a lifelong one.  My father was a successful punter who kept his own ratings database, and I started going to the races and developing an interest in form study as a young child.  In my 20s, I got a job as a form analyst and trader with Mark Read’s IAS, one of the early corporate bookmaking firms – that was where I really did my apprenticeship and learnt my trade from some outstanding mentors, which led to a 17-year form and trading career in the corporate world, firstly with IAS, then with Sportsbet.

How do you generate your ratings and identify your bets? Do you use a database? Where do you find the biggest edges? 

I maintain my own ratings database on NSW racing.  Time and weight are the cornerstones of the database, which in turn are the basis of my form analysis, pricing and betting.  Naturally, video analysis, speed maps, assessments of jockey and trainer ability and overall knowledge of the horses have significant roles to play, but it is the quality of the database in the first place that helps me to identify the best betting opportunities.

Why do you focus on Sydney racing?

I had been the head trader of NSW racing for IAS and then Sportsbet since 2006, so that’s become my area of expertise over the last decade or so.  I may be biased, but also believe it boasts the highest quality racing in Australia, despite the odd problem with field sizes etc.

What else do you look at when assessing form and determining bets? 

I like to bet in races in which I’m confident of my assessments, and it appears that one or two runners have a clear edge on their rivals.  If I can find a race like that, and in that race my pricing is also a bit different from the market, then that’s the very best opportunity to bet in my view.  I generally prefer to restrict my betting to those horses near the top of my markets, but of course I will look further afield if the value is too good to ignore.

What do you think the racing industry needs to do to stay relevant and to increase the attraction of the sport to a new generation?

If I knew the answer to that, I could probably name my own salary as a racing administrator! I think the industry should take its cue from other sports though.  There is so much interest in stats, analytics and fantasy games among young fans of more mainstream sports, surely there is an opportunity to migrate that interest to racing, a sport that is tailor-made for that kind of follower.

How will your service work? What types of bets will you send, how many bets per week, unit bank recommended, estimate of weekly units spent? 

100 unit bank.

I’ll provide a full pricing service for each NSW metro meeting with a comment/overview of each race (main chances, expected tempo/pattern) and suggested bets for the meeting. I would expect to recommend bets in about 50-75% of races assessed – in most cases, either one or two bets would be recommended in those betting races. I would aim to be turning over about 10-15% of the bank per meeting, which would result in turning over the starting bank 10-12 times in a year. 

What time will bets normally be released? 

As early as possible on race morning, from 9am but no later than 10.30am 

What information do you provide with each bet? 

 Assessed price, unit size and a recommendation regarding price to take (early price, Top Fluc, BOB, BTSP or similar), as well as my ratings spreadsheet with race and meeting comments and overviews.

What are your previous results? What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?  

A previous service I was providing was able to return ~20% POT, but my years of experience on both sides of the punting/bookmaking fence have taught me that anyone who can make 10% or more, long term, is doing very well, and I achieve above that consistently.

Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use? 

Bet365 is the obvious choice for Fixed prices given the SP guarantee, and with Minimum Bet Limits at least everyone can get set for something with them on NSW Racing. TAB, Ubet and Top Sport are best for early betting for me as they take bigger bets, although with Minimum Bet Limits (and automated pricing) means there’s little between most corporates these days in terms of prices.  Betfair, of course, is advised for those betting late once the liquidity is there.

Which odds comparison sites do you recommend? 

Dynamic Odds. 

Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the race starts? 

A recommendation will be made on a case-by-case basis for each bet.

Any profit guarantee? 

If the quarterly or annual subscription is not showing a profit during the period, your next subscription period is free.  

Will I be able to get a decent bet on? 

Yes absolutely, with minimum bet laws applicable in NSW that means everyone can bet with every bookie they have an account with, even if previously restricted or banned. The tips are for NSW Metro & provincial racing with high liquidity and bet limits. 

How will official results be recorded? 

BOB or the 3rd best fixed price of selected bookies, as per pre-race advice.