BLOGS

Lachlan Mosley Q&A

Monday, 24 June 2019

Share post on

Members of our Blackbook Bets service have been cleaning up for over a year thanks to successful tweaks in the approach by analyst Lachlan Mosley.

We sat down with Lachlan to get the lowdown on the service and find out the reason behind the recent charge.

 

Hi Lachlan, thanks for joining us to catch up on your Blackbook Bets service. For those out there who don't know your background, let’s start with how did you get into racing and becoming a punter?

I never had a racing background as a kid, but I started out punting for fun with a group of mates when we were around 18. We would play our game of footy on Saturday morning then rush up to a mate’s house and put around $100 in our accounts and basically bet $2 each-way on every metro race. We never won or lost big but it was great enjoyment and the love of the punt grew from there. From the racing side of things, I decided after a long time in the Optical Industry that I needed a break and decided to do the Thoroughbred Training course at Morphettville Tafe. I was quickly assigned to trainers Trevor Dansie and Natasha Storr, as well as Gordon Richards in my later days, and got my racing knowledge from them. 

One Saturday afternoon while playing football I suffered a severe knee injury and was told by the surgeons I would not be walking for close to a year. This immediately took away the two things I loved doing - playing footy and working with horses. So from there, with all the extra time on my hands and the love of the punt, I built a horse racing website on the couch with my leg up at home. At first, I gave out free selections to anyone who wanted a look. I recorded results and was doing really well, then ran a paid service with great success. I met Dean Evans along the way and have been with Winning Edge Investments ever since.

 

In both racing and betting it is common knowledge you never stop learning. Have you found that to be the case in your new approach?

Less is more. A problem I had in the past was that I was hell-bent on have at least one or two selections a day. This turned out to be a hindrance and wasn't focused intensely on sufficient value. Now I apply strict filters to all the blackbook qualifiers and am focusing more on finding the right horses with significant value in the mrkate. This has reduced our betting days down to around two or three maximum a week. If a week goes past (like this one) where members only have a one or two selections then so be it. But we are now making very consistent profits at high POT percentages.

 

What have been the main things you've sharpened up with the new approach?

Basically after analysing countless hours thorugh my results it was about finding out what tracks/barriers/jockeys/track conditions, etc were working and applying strict filters. At the end of the process we could see whether the horse still represented value for the upcoming event. We might have marked a horse after a slashing previous run, but suddenly next start it draws barrier 14 of 14, has a 3kg apprentice with a poor strike rate and/or is racing on a Soft track where it has yet to have performed, and isn't at a sufficient value price to warrant selection. Now we watch it go around and wait for the next runner of interest.

 

What's your involvement in the industry and how crucial in getting that inside knowledge and intimate understanding?

I have little involvement ‘hands-on’ in the racing industry anymore. My strapping days are over due to the bung knee. The only time you will see me at the races these days is having fun as an owner on the occasional Saturday (Go Gytrash!). To answer the question about inside knowledge, I know plenty of people in the industry that will always give me the right advice. I suppose the good thing about working with trainers in my earlier years is you can get a good understanding of a horse’s conditions and how long it might take the horse to show its best form come race day. 

 

How do you use that information and understanding to form your selections?

It's just about finding a balance that works. Gathering all the information possible on a horse and then assessing whether the horse still represents the correct value to proceed as a bet. I don't like to over complicate things and will generally back my own judgement. Inside information can help but it can also hinder. Like everyone in the game knows, there's been a million times where a whisper has circulated saying "this thing won't get beat" only for it to come out and run last. The buck stops with me and I make all my final calls on my judgement.

 

What's more important - knowing the trainers and jockeys or knowing the horses? Or is it a combination of both?

Combination. Jockeys are the ones that sit on top of them and do the main gallops so they generally know how good a horse is going before race-day. That information is handy to have. Knowing the horse is deadly important too as breeding can play a big part in how you assess the race. You may have ear-marked a horse for next start that has never won a race on soft/heavy going and the bloodlines suggests they hated the chop out, that's where again alarm bells are raised. Knowing a horse will peak further in a preparation and over further distance is always important too. You might have seen a stayer run a big first run over 1400m and mark the horse down as a blackbooker. While the run looks good to the eye, do you back it 2nd up over a mile where it has never performed previously? Probably not. You mark that horse down and follow it over 2000+ where it has performed best.

 

You're an owner as well, does that help to increase your involvement in the industry and develop contacts, etc?

It does help form great relationships at the race track. While times are tough with SA Racing at the moment, the good thing is that everybody knows everybody down at Morphettville and you can generally all feed off each other. 

 

You've had some success as an owner, tell us some more about that?

Our first success with a horse called Beau Rivage. He only won a handful of races but he brought us a lot of happiness at the race-track as he was owned with a close group of mates. Enki tries his little heart out week-in, week-out and pays his way but the main horse we have had our success with is Gytrash (G1 Lightning Stakes Winner). He has around 20 owners and every time he runs it feels like there's a 100 of us there. Friends and family come to watch his and the joy he brings and the fun we have at the races when he (and all our horses) run is what really counts. Having said that, he's a bloody good horse! 

 

You watch a lot of video replays - how do you watch them, what do you look for, and what notes do you make, etc?

I look for unlucky/good runs. I look for whether a horse goes to hard in front but sticks on well. I look for whether a horse or jockey resented a gap. Times/sectionals splits are all very important too. Basically I look for what most people are looking for when finding a future winner. It's just how you analyse it from there and follow up the identified runners in the right races - that's the key in making sure there's profit to be made. 

 

As an owner and being heavily involved in SA racing, what does the future hold?

What's been happening of late is enough to make your blood boil. Good, hard-working trainers/jockeys/track riders/ground staff are doing it pretty tough at the moment and the dominoes are already falling. Our biggest trainers have flown the coup because staying here simply isn't sustainable. While most other states are injecting millions in ensuring the future of the sport is safe, our Nanny State politicians are ripping the heart out of it for their own agendas.

 

There's been a lot of discussion about Government support / POC tax and what it will do to the industry? What's your assessment of where the state is at and where it is heading - and how it could be fixed?

At the moment where SA Racing is heading it’s a case of last person out please turn off the lights and shut the door. If the SA Government think that a pathetic $24 million dollar boost is the saviour that participants are looking for then they are just completely out of touch with what's going on. It's a band-aid effect and a knee-jerk reaction.  The government needs to show the industry more support. 

 

What do you love about SA racing?

It's just a good bunch of people down at the track that show great community spirit. Everybody knows everybody and most trainers/owners are happy to give you their time and insight and make the race-day experience fun. I think the injection of racing.com has made SA Racing a lot more appealing. James Jordan and Adam McGrath have been a breath of fresh air and it's great to see these hard working trainers/jockeys/table staff have their moment on TV so punters can put some faces to the names after all these years. We have, I believe, one of the best race-callers in Australia in Terry McAuliffe (who is now joining racing.com). He's a character, laid back and make race-calling fun. That's epitomises what SA racing is about. We just need the correct support behind us now to ensure that it will continue. 

 

Favourite ever horse?

Obviously the big three mares of the modern era are hard to top. Makybe Diva was one of the reasons I fell in love with horse racing and caught the bug. I used to love Whobegotyou and the way the horse went about it. More Joyous and Pierro are in my top 10 but my favourite ever horse is El Segundo. He used to grow a leg at Moonee Valley! I remember being there when Fields of Omagh nutted him on the line (thanks a lot Darren Gauci). I was so hell-bent that he wouldn't get beat the next year so pulled together whatever I could. Nolen rode him a treat and he won at a ridiculous price of $7.50. That was a good night.  

 

Biggest / most memorable win for members?

We have had bigger winners in the past but my favourite wins for members has been SANTA ANA LANE - he just continually won at big odds in Group Ones. Members collected above $26 in the Rupert Clarke one year and then around the same price a year later in a Goodwood Hcp. How the horse went around that price after the lead up runs was beyond me. 

 

Have you got a favourite jockey?

I love Damien Oliver. He reads a race really well and if the horse is good enough, it will win. My favourite female jockey would be Jamie Kah. Horses just run for her and she gives them a great feel. Of the up-and-comers I would say that Justin Huxtable is one to watch. His knowledge and ability to read a race is years in advance on where he should be. I hope he can maintain his weight. My favourite SA jockey would have to Jason Holder. He is the best judge of distance in the state. As I have stated previouslys to members he is a jockey I can trust from an outside draw. He turns bad barriers into good barriers.

 

To join Blackbook Bets, click here

Related Posts

Monday, June 20, 2022

Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis

It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review. Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments //www.w

Sunday, June 19, 2022

NBA Tips Season Review

NBA Tips Review Subscribe to NBA Tips  Final tally: +13.9 units 2022 results: +25.1 unitsBiggest drawdown: -11.1 units YOY:2020/2021: 194.2 units invested. +30.5 units profit2021/2022: 249.4 units invested. +13.9 units profitTotal:            452.6 u

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Thursday, May 19, 2022

The Year To Date Results!

Year To Date ResultsWorldwide Tips & Ratings – The Syndicate YTD: + 875.9 units PROFIT (8.5% POT)Overall: + 4,689.5 units PROFIT (8.2% POT)A massive year so far!Highlights so far in 2022 includes Global Gold $251, Cleopatras Charge $72.02, Western Ki

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Q&A with an NRL Lines modeller

Below is a Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett.Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.My name is David Barrett. I am an engineer with a university educated mathematical background. I am what most people would refer to as a numbers pe

BLOGS

Lachlan Mosley Q&A

Monday, 24 June 2019

Share post on

Members of our Blackbook Bets service have been cleaning up for over a year thanks to successful tweaks in the approach by analyst Lachlan Mosley.

We sat down with Lachlan to get the lowdown on the service and find out the reason behind the recent charge.

 

Hi Lachlan, thanks for joining us to catch up on your Blackbook Bets service. For those out there who don't know your background, let’s start with how did you get into racing and becoming a punter?

I never had a racing background as a kid, but I started out punting for fun with a group of mates when we were around 18. We would play our game of footy on Saturday morning then rush up to a mate’s house and put around $100 in our accounts and basically bet $2 each-way on every metro race. We never won or lost big but it was great enjoyment and the love of the punt grew from there. From the racing side of things, I decided after a long time in the Optical Industry that I needed a break and decided to do the Thoroughbred Training course at Morphettville Tafe. I was quickly assigned to trainers Trevor Dansie and Natasha Storr, as well as Gordon Richards in my later days, and got my racing knowledge from them. 

One Saturday afternoon while playing football I suffered a severe knee injury and was told by the surgeons I would not be walking for close to a year. This immediately took away the two things I loved doing - playing footy and working with horses. So from there, with all the extra time on my hands and the love of the punt, I built a horse racing website on the couch with my leg up at home. At first, I gave out free selections to anyone who wanted a look. I recorded results and was doing really well, then ran a paid service with great success. I met Dean Evans along the way and have been with Winning Edge Investments ever since.

 

In both racing and betting it is common knowledge you never stop learning. Have you found that to be the case in your new approach?

Less is more. A problem I had in the past was that I was hell-bent on have at least one or two selections a day. This turned out to be a hindrance and wasn't focused intensely on sufficient value. Now I apply strict filters to all the blackbook qualifiers and am focusing more on finding the right horses with significant value in the mrkate. This has reduced our betting days down to around two or three maximum a week. If a week goes past (like this one) where members only have a one or two selections then so be it. But we are now making very consistent profits at high POT percentages.

 

What have been the main things you've sharpened up with the new approach?

Basically after analysing countless hours thorugh my results it was about finding out what tracks/barriers/jockeys/track conditions, etc were working and applying strict filters. At the end of the process we could see whether the horse still represented value for the upcoming event. We might have marked a horse after a slashing previous run, but suddenly next start it draws barrier 14 of 14, has a 3kg apprentice with a poor strike rate and/or is racing on a Soft track where it has yet to have performed, and isn't at a sufficient value price to warrant selection. Now we watch it go around and wait for the next runner of interest.

 

What's your involvement in the industry and how crucial in getting that inside knowledge and intimate understanding?

I have little involvement ‘hands-on’ in the racing industry anymore. My strapping days are over due to the bung knee. The only time you will see me at the races these days is having fun as an owner on the occasional Saturday (Go Gytrash!). To answer the question about inside knowledge, I know plenty of people in the industry that will always give me the right advice. I suppose the good thing about working with trainers in my earlier years is you can get a good understanding of a horse’s conditions and how long it might take the horse to show its best form come race day. 

 

How do you use that information and understanding to form your selections?

It's just about finding a balance that works. Gathering all the information possible on a horse and then assessing whether the horse still represents the correct value to proceed as a bet. I don't like to over complicate things and will generally back my own judgement. Inside information can help but it can also hinder. Like everyone in the game knows, there's been a million times where a whisper has circulated saying "this thing won't get beat" only for it to come out and run last. The buck stops with me and I make all my final calls on my judgement.

 

What's more important - knowing the trainers and jockeys or knowing the horses? Or is it a combination of both?

Combination. Jockeys are the ones that sit on top of them and do the main gallops so they generally know how good a horse is going before race-day. That information is handy to have. Knowing the horse is deadly important too as breeding can play a big part in how you assess the race. You may have ear-marked a horse for next start that has never won a race on soft/heavy going and the bloodlines suggests they hated the chop out, that's where again alarm bells are raised. Knowing a horse will peak further in a preparation and over further distance is always important too. You might have seen a stayer run a big first run over 1400m and mark the horse down as a blackbooker. While the run looks good to the eye, do you back it 2nd up over a mile where it has never performed previously? Probably not. You mark that horse down and follow it over 2000+ where it has performed best.

 

You're an owner as well, does that help to increase your involvement in the industry and develop contacts, etc?

It does help form great relationships at the race track. While times are tough with SA Racing at the moment, the good thing is that everybody knows everybody down at Morphettville and you can generally all feed off each other. 

 

You've had some success as an owner, tell us some more about that?

Our first success with a horse called Beau Rivage. He only won a handful of races but he brought us a lot of happiness at the race-track as he was owned with a close group of mates. Enki tries his little heart out week-in, week-out and pays his way but the main horse we have had our success with is Gytrash (G1 Lightning Stakes Winner). He has around 20 owners and every time he runs it feels like there's a 100 of us there. Friends and family come to watch his and the joy he brings and the fun we have at the races when he (and all our horses) run is what really counts. Having said that, he's a bloody good horse! 

 

You watch a lot of video replays - how do you watch them, what do you look for, and what notes do you make, etc?

I look for unlucky/good runs. I look for whether a horse goes to hard in front but sticks on well. I look for whether a horse or jockey resented a gap. Times/sectionals splits are all very important too. Basically I look for what most people are looking for when finding a future winner. It's just how you analyse it from there and follow up the identified runners in the right races - that's the key in making sure there's profit to be made. 

 

As an owner and being heavily involved in SA racing, what does the future hold?

What's been happening of late is enough to make your blood boil. Good, hard-working trainers/jockeys/track riders/ground staff are doing it pretty tough at the moment and the dominoes are already falling. Our biggest trainers have flown the coup because staying here simply isn't sustainable. While most other states are injecting millions in ensuring the future of the sport is safe, our Nanny State politicians are ripping the heart out of it for their own agendas.

 

There's been a lot of discussion about Government support / POC tax and what it will do to the industry? What's your assessment of where the state is at and where it is heading - and how it could be fixed?

At the moment where SA Racing is heading it’s a case of last person out please turn off the lights and shut the door. If the SA Government think that a pathetic $24 million dollar boost is the saviour that participants are looking for then they are just completely out of touch with what's going on. It's a band-aid effect and a knee-jerk reaction.  The government needs to show the industry more support. 

 

What do you love about SA racing?

It's just a good bunch of people down at the track that show great community spirit. Everybody knows everybody and most trainers/owners are happy to give you their time and insight and make the race-day experience fun. I think the injection of racing.com has made SA Racing a lot more appealing. James Jordan and Adam McGrath have been a breath of fresh air and it's great to see these hard working trainers/jockeys/table staff have their moment on TV so punters can put some faces to the names after all these years. We have, I believe, one of the best race-callers in Australia in Terry McAuliffe (who is now joining racing.com). He's a character, laid back and make race-calling fun. That's epitomises what SA racing is about. We just need the correct support behind us now to ensure that it will continue. 

 

Favourite ever horse?

Obviously the big three mares of the modern era are hard to top. Makybe Diva was one of the reasons I fell in love with horse racing and caught the bug. I used to love Whobegotyou and the way the horse went about it. More Joyous and Pierro are in my top 10 but my favourite ever horse is El Segundo. He used to grow a leg at Moonee Valley! I remember being there when Fields of Omagh nutted him on the line (thanks a lot Darren Gauci). I was so hell-bent that he wouldn't get beat the next year so pulled together whatever I could. Nolen rode him a treat and he won at a ridiculous price of $7.50. That was a good night.  

 

Biggest / most memorable win for members?

We have had bigger winners in the past but my favourite wins for members has been SANTA ANA LANE - he just continually won at big odds in Group Ones. Members collected above $26 in the Rupert Clarke one year and then around the same price a year later in a Goodwood Hcp. How the horse went around that price after the lead up runs was beyond me. 

 

Have you got a favourite jockey?

I love Damien Oliver. He reads a race really well and if the horse is good enough, it will win. My favourite female jockey would be Jamie Kah. Horses just run for her and she gives them a great feel. Of the up-and-comers I would say that Justin Huxtable is one to watch. His knowledge and ability to read a race is years in advance on where he should be. I hope he can maintain his weight. My favourite SA jockey would have to Jason Holder. He is the best judge of distance in the state. As I have stated previouslys to members he is a jockey I can trust from an outside draw. He turns bad barriers into good barriers.

 

To join Blackbook Bets, click here

Related Posts

Monday, June 20, 2022

Speed Stars Race Previews - Results Analysis

It has now been close to 3 months since I made the switch to providing full Speed Based Race Previews rather than offering a selection only service, so I felt it was time to do a review. Click here to subscribe to Speed Stars Race Assessments //www.w

Sunday, June 19, 2022

NBA Tips Season Review

NBA Tips Review Subscribe to NBA Tips  Final tally: +13.9 units 2022 results: +25.1 unitsBiggest drawdown: -11.1 units YOY:2020/2021: 194.2 units invested. +30.5 units profit2021/2022: 249.4 units invested. +13.9 units profitTotal:            452.6 u

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Speed Stars Race Assessments

Speed Stars Race Assessments are a visual representation of each horse’s assigned rating using known performance capabilities based on unique Speed Ratings:- Early Speed capability of each horse from the start to the 400m- Late Speed capability of ea

Thursday, May 19, 2022

The Year To Date Results!

Year To Date ResultsWorldwide Tips & Ratings – The Syndicate YTD: + 875.9 units PROFIT (8.5% POT)Overall: + 4,689.5 units PROFIT (8.2% POT)A massive year so far!Highlights so far in 2022 includes Global Gold $251, Cleopatras Charge $72.02, Western Ki

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Q&A with an NRL Lines modeller

Below is a Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett.Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.My name is David Barrett. I am an engineer with a university educated mathematical background. I am what most people would refer to as a numbers pe