Friday, January 1, 2021
Want this year to be the one you stop losing on the punt and start making a reliable profit? Or are you already betting somewhat successfully but want to turbocharge your profits to the next level? Either way, here are 10 handy Betting Resolutions to get your betting on track like a professional. 1) OPERATE A BETTING BANK The reason many punters fail is they do not adhere to the same strategies professionals use to succeed. All professionals have a betting bank, and keep this completely separate from their day-to-day finances. The funds should stay in bookmaker, Betfair and TAB accounts - the separation from your daily finances helps you to keep focused. A betting bank is also necessary so that you stake appropriately with your betting bank and avoid ever being wiped out and having to add funds to your bank. Learn More: How to manage your betting banks following multiple services 2) MAXIMISE YOUR WINNINGS After doing all the hard work in finding and backing a winner, it makes no sense to get ripped off on price. Shopping for odds makes an enormous difference to your overall profit at the end of the year, so having multiple bookie accounts is a must. It’s no different to shopping online and buying a product for a price much worse than you could get on a different website simply because you didn’t look at alternative. But having multiple options isn’t enough, you must ensure you don’t get banned or restricted by the bookies once you start winning! Learn More: 20 Tips To Get The Best Possible Odds Learn More: How do I avoid getting banned by the bookies Learn More: Account Restrictions and what can be done Learn More: Minimum Bet Laws 3) MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE Maintaining discipline is often the hardest part of betting for most punters. Once you have started a betting bank and consistent staking strategy, it can be difficult to maintain this during either a big winning or losing streak. As Mike Tyson once said: "everyone has a plan, until they get hit". Discipline is the key to success in this game, and that includes keeping records to analyse and learn from your mistakes. Learn More: Variance and the importance of sound bankroll management 4) TAKE A LONG-TERM FOCUS Remember betting is a marathon, not a sprint. It frankly doesn’t matter how much you won or lost on a given day, week or even month. All that matters are the long-term results, and if you focus on the long term (minimum one-year horizon) you will find your frustrations and concerns around your betting performance on a given day, week or even month is actually of no long term consequence, and is a natural part of the investment cycle. Learn More: Perspective 5) FIX YOUR MINDSET Staying positive and unlearning the betting myths that you would have learned from the 99% of unsuccessful punters over the years are key to betting successfully. If you have the right long-term mindset you’re already ahead of most punters, and are already halfway towards success. If you have the wrong mindset, you are likely to fail at anything you attempt, and betting is no different. Learn More: ‘Bouncers’ – Why some people fail following tipster services 6) ONLY BET WHEN YOU’RE GETTING VALUE Make sure you aren’t simply following the big money, by which time you are often simply backing horses that are ‘over bet’ and no longer value. Always ensure you are also betting when the odds available exceed your expected chance of that horse winning. Learn More: What is value in gambling? 7) DIVERSIFY You may have a successful betting method yourself, or a service that is delivering you great profits. But are you sure that method or service will continue to be profitable ongoing? A critical element to any successful investor is diversifying to reduce risk and maximise profits. Learn More: The benefits of multiple betting services 8) FOCUS ON PROFIT Just remember that whilst factors such as Strike Rate and Profit on Turnover are useful calculations, at the end of the day the most important number is the Profit you’ve made at the end of the year. Maximising Profit should always be your number one primary objective and shouldn’t be sacrificed solely in an attempt to improve Strike Rate or Profit on Turnover percentages. Learn More: Results 8) LEARN THE MATHEMATICS Bookmakers win because they understand two key principles: Mathematics and Patience. Ensure you understand the maths, so that you can turn the odds in your favour. Learn More: Understanding Market Percentages Learn More: The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks 9) GET YOURSELF EDUCATED Make this year the one you get educated – whether by reading books, listening to true experts in their field through the media, or searching online - start learning from those who are successful in their field. By trying to replicate what they do, you will begin to generate consistent profits. Learn More: FREE BETTING EDUCATION Learn More: WINNING EDGE PODCAST Learn More: WINNING EDGE TV 10) FOLLOW A PROVEN STRATEGY Whether it is using your own successful betting strategies and/or following services run by professionals with a long term proven track record , make sure your betting activities have a purpose this year. Long Term Profit! Learn More: 10 reasons why Winning Edge Investments is the #1 Tips & Ratings Provider in Australia
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
20 tips to get the best possible odds on Horse Racing To get the best possible odds, it’s important firstly to understand the current betting landscape. Early market fixed prices, even at 9am, usually open between 125% to 135% Closing fixed prices usually finish up between 110% to 120% TAB Tote win pools are usually around 118% The Betfair market usually closes at 102% As you can see, betting late means you obtain market percentages far more in your favour than betting early. We find a lot of members of tipping services suffer from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), and have a tendency to back horses predominantly at fixed odds rather than alternative methods. People seem to get ‘frustrated’ if they ‘miss a price’ when a winner firms, yet don’t seem to have the same ‘frustration’ when a horse they back at a fixed price drifts to a big price and win. Of course successful analysts will have many winners that firm rather than drift, but that doesn’t mean that all bets should be blindly placed at fixed prices at all times. All the professional experts providing tips through Winning Edge Investments provide information on whether to back a horse at fixed odds, or to bet late, or a combination/blend of the two. Officially we record drifters using methods such as Best Tote/SP, Betfair SP, BOB, Top Fluc or Mid Tote. You will match/equal officially recorded odds by using these methodologies, but we urge members to aim to exceed official odds by following the recommendations below. 20 Tips for getting the best possible odds The aim of the Fair Odds Recording methodologies at Winning Edge Investments is for every member to beat the price recorded in official results, or at the very least match them. Below is a summary of the top 20 ways to get the best possible odds, and greatly exceed official results: 1) Use Dynamic Odds (or other odds comparison websites) One of the major factors - if not the major factor - in betting profitably is always striving to get the absolute best price possible. Once all the work is done and you’re onto a good thing, there’s no bigger ‘own goal’ than taking an inferior price. It takes the same amount of time and effort to place the bet, yet you get paid (sometimes substantially) less. When you’re following any of our services, it’s important that you aim to get the best prices possible. There’s no point going to the one bookie and just taking their price when others are paying better. Take yourself back to the old-school betting ring at the track…you wouldn’t do it there! You would always search for the best price and zero in on that bookie. Thankfully, odds comparison sites allow you to replicate that when betting online. Rather than having to make your way around all the different bookies’ websites or apps, odds comparison sites allow you to just pick your race or sporting event and see multiple bookies’ prices side-by-side. There’s a few odds comparison options out there. In our opinion, the best one available is Dynamic Odds . Click the link and we have organised an exclusive 4-week free trial for you. It’s an easy-to-use and easily customisable product. You can choose which bookies to display on screen, there’s a mountain of options and tools, and best of all, you can sign in to each of your bookie accounts through the program and simply bet from Dynamic Odds with the click of a button. Click which price you want, enter your stake, and you’re on. It’s fast and dead-simple to use and ensures you always get the best price of all of the bookies. If you aren’t using Dynamic Odds you are costing yourself a fortune in additional profits. It amazes us that there are still members reporting that they are still not utilising this tool. Even a small punter working full-time will boost their profits substantially using Dynamic Odds. You can check and compare prices with all your own bookies quickly on your laptop or mobile phone, and even place bets through your mobile with all your bookies using the dynamic odds mobile version. This is much quicker and more effective than betting through each bookie app or website separately. Don’t forget clicking our link gets you a 4-week free trial, so if you haven’t tried it yet, get onto it now. The premium version only costs $35 a month. For the extra money you’ll make by being able to easily take better prices, that’s an absolute bargain. Trust us, it’s worth every cent. 2) Have many bookmaker accounts The basic rule with bookmakers is simply to have access to as many as possible, as it gives you a better chance of always being able to bet the best price. Take your betting bank and spread it across as many bookmaker accounts as possible. It’s far better to have your bankroll evenly split across 10 bookmaker accounts than all sitting in one. There’s a lot of options out there when it comes to bookies. Our suggestions, in order of importance/benefit are as follows: Betfair , Vicbet , David Dwyer, TopSport, Bet365, Sportsbet, Sportsbetting, NSW Tab, VIC Tab, Ubet, BlueBet, Ladbrokes, Neds, BetEasy, TopBetta, Betstar, Bookmaker, Tabtouch, Best Bookies, Unibet, Palmerbet, Playup, Bbet & Betdogs. 3) Bookies with a buffer If you haven’t got an account with Bet365, make sure you get one immediately. Bet365 routinely offer the best early prices on racing, and in addition offer an SP guarantee. Bet365 pay out best of fixed price or SP, whichever is higher. It can be worth at times taking a lower fixed price to secure the potential benefit of 'drift protection'. Whilst this is often a good option, best tote or Betfair SP will usually outperform SP on any drifter. Taking early prices with Bet365 will give you the opportunity to exceed official results, with the SP buffer available if the horse does drift. Bet365 are well known for banning winning punters, but with NSW and Vic now having minimum bet laws in place, Bet365 is right back in the picture for everyone. Use them where their price is above or close to the 3rd best fixed price in the e-mail as there is an SP buffer (as long as you aren’t restricted from this product). 4) Betfair Betfair routinely offer the best odds available in the market for horse racing, particularly during the last 15 minutes of betting. Usually Betfair gets you the best odds on horses drifting in the market, and on horses at big (double figure) prices. It is a must have. We could write an essay on the prices available on Betfair on some of our winners, but a handful of examples from Dean’s Tips are below. As you can see, at all spectrums of the market you can get great prices on Betfair even just at Betfair SP: Emmadee: Official $101, $260 Betfair SP (got out to $560 on Betfair in betting) Balrov: Official $23, $60 Betfair SP (got out to $120 on Betfair in betting) Time And Truth: Official $23, $80 Betfair SP (got out to $140 on Betfair in betting) Fish Bones Fry: Official $34, $60 Betfair SP (got out to $90 on Betfair in betting) Shazee Lee: Official $56, $100 Betfair SP (got out to $110 on Betfair in betting) 5) BOB BOB stands for Best of the Best. This is a great product that gives you the best of 3 totes or Top Fluctuation (note Top Fluctuation is calculated from 25 minutes before race start time - not from the opening price). Vicbet offer BOB for all races across Australia, seven days per week. TopSport offer it for Saturday Metro meetings, as do Ladbrokes/Bookmaker/Betstar. David Dwyer offers it for all metro meetings including midweek. BOB is usually better for horses at single figure odds, and BFSP (Betfair SP) better for horses at double figure odds. 6) Additional late betting stake on big drifters One opportunity to consider is increasing your stake on a dramatic drifter. The Kelly Criterion (widely regarded as the best formula to use to determine the optimal size of a bet), suggests that to maximise long-term profits and create a greater edge, the more you should bet. So, as an example if you rate a horse a $3 chance and can get $7 in the market, you should bet MORE than if you could obtain $5 in the market. This theorem is why we recommend having another bet at our runners if the price drifts to around 50% or more above the recommended price. Some reasons that horses drift dramatically on Betfair include; Wide gate High weight Poor run last start or poor recent form Low-rated trainer or jockey First-up and not favoured A hot, heavily-backed favourite in the race These reasons have already been assessed and considered by our expert professional analysts - drifters should not concern you in many instances. If you lock in an early price and then the horse drifts significantly (close to 50% or more), it is certainly worth backing again on Betfair to get your average price up, to exceed official results. There have been plenty of significant drifters that have won at odds far greater than official prices. It's simply about taking additional advantage when one drifts. 7) Get on track It’s becoming well reported that top fluctuation prices available on track at the racecourses are well above those reported through the Official Prices (which require a ridiculous 6 bookmakers to all have the price for the fluctuation to be included). Heading to the track to bet can get you better prices than available online. 8) Other bookies not considered in opening fixed prices Many bookies such as Unibet, Palmerbet, Betstar, Bookmaker, Neds & Pointsbet are all not included when stating the 3rd best fixed price. You can often get bigger fixed odds using these bookies. 9) Bookies not on Dynamic Odds A very large proportion of members bet using Dynamic Odds, and take the best available prices from that selection of bookies. As a result, there are several bookies whose prices are not shown on Dynamic Odds. They are also not considered in official results or betting information. However, many members do bet with these bookies, and often find they get greater prices than main bookies. The other bonus is that as these bookies are lesser known & not on Dynamic Odds, their prices are often available a lot longer. If you happen to miss an early price, it is worth looking at these bookies to see if the price may have held, as they often do hold much longer than the bookies on Dynamic Odds. Options include: Unibet, Palmerbet, Betstar, Bookmaker, Neds & Pointsbet. 10) Horses drifting to better prices than quoted before alert sent This actually happens fairly often. By the time the alert is sent, often a horse has drifted out to prices greater than stated, but nonetheless that stated price is recorded. For example, there was one occasion where a horse was advised at $3.20 when the e-mail was sent, but was $4.40 about a minute later. The $3.20 price was recorded for that winner. 11) Bookies offering better prices than quoted after alert sent There are actually occasions where bets are sent, but there’s still 1 or 2 bookies who haven’t put up prices yet. Even though early prices have been crunched, often these bookies will post their analyst’s initial prices. There was an occasion where we backed a horse from $21 into $11, and then 1 or 2 bookies opened 15 minutes later at $21. Those prices often sit there for a while as most members have already placed their bets. 12) Monitoring and betting late when market percentages are lower and more in your favour When we advise taking a price with Best Tote/SP, Top Fluc, Betfair SP or BOB, that suggests we think the horse will likely drift from its current fixed price in betting. Bets for most horse racing services are sent usually between 9am and 11am, but the market percentages are larger at these times. Whilst we often get outstanding prices on horses that have been mispriced and firm, on most occasions natural betting movements mean the prices drift back out towards start time as the bookies start to compete and the market percentages reduce. This means often a horse drifts back out, but then gets backed again very late by big players. So, although the starting price may be close to or even lower than the early price, the horse has been much larger odds during betting. Below are three examples that spring to mind, but these types of market movements are commonplace: Delagos: Opened $11, drifted out to $31 with corporate bookies and $30 Betfair just prior to the start, but only paid $15 SP Maccy Fields: Opened $8.50, drifted out to $14 Betfair, firmed back into $8.50 SP Zerprise Journey: Opened $4.20, drifted out to $6.60 in betting on Betfair, and then firmed back into $4.10 Best Tote/SP 13) Not betting or laying back a runner on Betfair if a horse has become over bet Often a horse gets ‘over bet’ and backed down to a silly, short price, particularly at the shorter end of the market. You can choose to simply not bet when the value isn’t there, or the horse is under the rated/minimum price advised - this will save you units in the long run and avoids taking ‘unders’. You can also set a minimum price on Betfair SP so that you never take below the minimum price you set / we advise. Some smart members lay back runners that firm dramatically. This enables them to effectively have a ‘free bet’ on a runner, or even guarantee a profit regardless of whether a horse wins or not. This grants some members the opportunity to substantially reduce variance and bet reasonably risk free, particularly when backing runners expected to firm dramatically when advised by the expert. Greyhound Genius is one servicee where this can be very effective as all bets are advised to be backed at fixed odds when the e-mail is sent, and the vast majority of bets firm in the market. 14) Take advantage of promos and bet boosts / top ups Corporate bookies offer all sorts of promotions, such as money back if your win bet runs a place, or bet boosts etc. Be sure to take advantage of these for as long as they are available to you, as they are excellent for adding cream on top of your profits. 15) Metro/City v Country/Provincial Prices on runners for Metro/City races are much less influenced when bets are released than Country/Provincial races where they can be impacted. For Metro/City races (the major raceday in each state typically on a Saturday and Wednesday), three good options are either betting through Bet365 if you have the SP guarantee, using a Best of the Best product (highest of Best Tote and Top Fluc) offered by many different bookies including Vicbet, or again Betfair is your friend on Metro races also with amazing prices and liquidity available throughout betting, even if just using the Betfair SP tool. Note the standard tracks for Metro/City racing are: NSW: Randwick, Rosehill, Warwick Farm and Canterbury VIC: Flemington, Caulfield, Moonee Valley, Sandown Hillside and Sandown Lakeside QLD: Eagle Farm and Doomben SA: Morphettville and Morphettville Parks WA: Ascot and Belmont For Provincial & Country racing, taking some of the better fixed prices available at the time bets are sent is a good strategy, however if you are able to monitor prices even just on some days such as weekends, you will find through a combination of corporate bookies, Betfair and totes that you will get fantastic prices well above those recorded. 16) Consider the advised unit stakes The advised unit stakes are an excellent guide on whether to bet early or late on selections. Based on your experience with a service, or assessment of their previous results, you can determine the standard amount. For many services the 'standard' amount the expert aims to collect on a win bet is around 5 units. If that’s the case and the service backs a horse for 1 unit to win, and the horse is odds of $5, that's about normal as a good bet. If the horse is odds of $10, then we stand to collect 10u if the horse wins, and that's a high confidence bet. This horse will often firm in betting. If the horse is odds of $2 we stand to collect 2u, so this is low confidence, or possibly just a ‘saver’ bet. This horse will often drift in betting. So using the amount to be collected, with 5u (or the average collect) as the 'barometer', can be a reasonable indication of whether a horse will firm or drift, particularly at the extreme ends of the spectrum. This can help you decide whether to back the horse early at a fixed price, or take a late betting option such as BFSP/BOB/BTSP if not able to monitor. An example was a horse called Flash Boy at Bendigo. Advised 0.5w but available market price was only $5. Given that's only a 2.5u win collect, locking in an early fixed price wasn't the way to go. Those who backed it with Bet365 got $9 SP, BTSP paid $10.90, BFSP $13, and last matched Betfair price was $14.50. One question that is asked is when should a bet not be placed if the value has gone? In general terms, advised bets should be placed, but the best way to explain is with extreme examples. Firstly, let's say we advise 1u to win on a horse at $31 for a 31u collect. Should you back it if you miss early prices and it firms to $10? The answer is yes, because the 1u investment still stands to collect 10u and that's still a major collect and a big profit. The significant firming indicates simply how incorrect the initial market price was, but how much you stand to collect indicates the horse is still a value bet. If I advise 0.1u on a horse at $31, and it firms to $10 before you have bet, well then you only stand to collect 1u if it wins backing it at $10, well below what you would normally expect to collect on a winner with the service, so you could give this horse a miss as long term there's little value to be had taking unders on those runners. A better example is if a service advises 1u to win at a horse at $5, and it firms to $2 before you've placed you bet. Again the original collect was 5u, but now with a 1u investment on a 2u collect, this no longer would be a worthwhile investment. It's an art, not a science, and ultimately your decision, but the above will help guide you towards when to bet early or late (or not at all in rarer instances). 17) One tip in a race v multiple bets in a race If there is one bet in a race, there is more likelihood of that runner firming (particularly if the expected win bet collect is anything above 5u). When there are 2 bets in a race, it's often the case that one firms & one drifts. However when there are multiple bets in a race (3 or more), it is very rare they will all firm. Usually maybe 1 firms & the rest drift, or often they will all drift. The only exception is if we aggressively back 3 runners at big odds to beat a short-priced favourite. If the short favourite drifts, the others could firm, but it can go the other way. Often exceptional prices are obtained on runners betting against a firm short-priced favourite. Again, the aggressiveness of the staking will guide you on whether to bet early or late. The more horses backed, the more that locking in fixed early prices without an SP buffer should be avoided unless the collect is well above 5u. When there are multiple runners in a race it is often a good opportunity to monitor or use BOB/BFSP. 18) Keep records and regularly review them, but don't worry about always getting the best possible price every time It isn't possible, or required. All of our services are highly profitable, with results easily achieved by following the information contained here. Constant improvement in your betting practices will mean constant improvement in your long-term results, and that's the key to long term success with your betting. Take a couple of minutes out every day (or just once every now & then) to review the flucs & closing prices available of runners we back using dynamic odds & you will soon open your eyes to the potential opportunities. 19) Change your mindset: Don’t suffer from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) As a general rule, many punters suffer from FOMO. They take a fixed price on most occasions. The market has changed dramatically and market percentages in early markets have continued to shift upwards to often 130%-135%, which is very high. Taking early fixed prices can be problematic also if there are scratchings, where heavy deductions can be applied, further reducing your final dividend. A mindset shift for many is vital. Realising that the Betfair market close to race start time gets down to around 102%, and waiting and attempting to monitor prices and bet late will result in better overall results for those willing to take the time. 20) Don’t be lazy, and stop making excuses Whilst we understand most members have jobs, the reality is a large proportion of bets are sent on weekends, or outside normal working hours. For all members, there will be periods where they are not working, and it’s at those times where members should look to greatly exceed official results by monitoring and placing bets late rather than blindly betting using Fixed or Best Tote/BOB/BFSP type options. Like most things in life, the more effort you put in, the better the outcome will be. Also like most things, the more you practice something, the better you become. In this day & age with smartphones, bookmaker apps & Dynamic Odds, etc, comparing prices and placing bets at the best odds has never been more simple & accessible. Invest intelligently, don’t be lazy, put a little effort in, and don’t miss out on the even larger profits you could easily be achieving. If you are interested to take your betting game to the next level, we recommend you to sign up to our newsletter to receive a copy of our free 120 page Betting Information Pack . We send out a weekly newsletter full of free Horse Racing and Sports Betting tips, education and information to help you become a far more profitable punter. Read more about our Membership Options here
Monday, December 28, 2020
One interesting aspect of the member survey of our members' betting habits was that the most common answer to the question "How many racing or sports services are you a member of?" was "More than 5". Our shrewder and most successful members know that the more you can turnover profitably, the more profit you make at the end of the year. You should think of your betting activities in the same way as successful business chains such as McDonalds or Subway franchise and grow to other stores. Ultimately there's only so much profit you can make with one store (service), so it makes sense to expand your reach over multiple stores (services). That is why we offer a range of horse racing & sports betting services . We provide our members with alternatives that benefit them, by offering only the most highly respected and qualified horse racing & sports handicappers guaranteed to generate exceptional profits in their given specialties. There are 3 key reasons you should consider adding multiple services to your portfolio: 1) Additional Profits - As mentioned above, this is the obvious one. First you need to assess and identify profitable services with which you can bet with confidence, knowing that there is a significant demonstrated edge. However, with most services there is a natural limit to how much you have on their selections. Firstly, limits are driven by the fact many bookies will only bet you for a certain amount before the odds are reduced, and taking lower prices impacts your POT%. Secondly, some limits are due simply to the fact that one may only be comfortable betting a certain amount on one bet or service before the bet sizes get too large for their comfort zone. In both cases, these natural limits can be offset with multiple services. 2) Spreading the variance - All services go through peaks and troughs. If these frustrate you, multiple services give you the opportunity to smooth the variance somewhat, and if they are all proven to be profitable long term, then your profit graphs should show a smoother upward trend than they would only following 1 service. This is important from a mindset and bank protection perspective. Diversification is highly regarded in the stock-investing world, and treating your betting as an investment is no different. 3) Not losing accounts - This one is absolutely critical, and in fact in this modern age probably deserves to be number 1. The reality is those who 'specialise' are the first to get restricted or banned by the greedy corporates. The key is to have the bookies and their bots/traders believe you're just another Joe Bloggs getting lucky on the punt. The best way to do this is have a dabble on a bit of everything. We have been advising members for years via e-mail and in the members resources to place bets across a wide variety of racing and sports options, so you aren't flagged as someone who is betting successfully specialising on a certain niche. Plenty of Winning Edge Investments members have lost accounts over the years given our success, and whether or not you know it, your accounts could currently be on watch. Your best chance is to spread your betting activities around, and lull the bookies into a false sense of security. Most smart professionals and punters are happy to 'break even' betting on a variety of racing and sports outside their key specialty, in order to keep the bookies off guard. With our multiple services, you have the opportunity to not only protect your bookie accounts for longer, which in itself could be worth tens of thousands, but to do so very profitably. Win win! Now read the follow up article on how to run your betting bank following multiple services: Following multiple services: how ... - Winning Edge Investments Winning Edge Investments is committed in providing the highest quality tips and education whilst always remaining open and transparent, focused always on the success of you, our valued member. Why Winning Edge Investments The results of our expert analysts in the public realm are second to none. They are dedicated to staying ahead of the game, constantly evolving and pushing to innovate to get the extra edge so our members can continue to make substantial profits year in and year out. If you want to expand your betting education and skillset, take your betting seriously and become profitable long term then Winning Edge Investments is the service for you. Our expert analysts back all of their selections heavily, most as their predominant source of income, and live and breathe the betting game, which sets them apart from the other services in the market. Read more about our Membership Options here Connect With Us!
Friday, December 18, 2020
How to run your betting banks following multiple services Given the success of our services, the re-subscription rate as you can imagine is very high. In the early days, a reason a couple of members gave for stopping with a service was losses incurred from following other services provided by other tipping companies. We found this curious, as we always figured if each service has a separate bank, how can the poor performance of one service impact another? But a couple of recent explanations has led us to understand how this was possible. Firstly, we must define what the purpose of following multiple services is. When it comes to investing by betting on racing or sports, the key reasons for following multiple services are as follows: More profit (increased turnover) Diversification (reducing risk) Liquidity limitations (cannot get set for unlimited amounts at acceptable odds) Protecting bookie accounts (spreading focus of bets on a wide variety of markets so accounts are not shut down) The key topic to discuss is regarding diversification, but firstly we will briefly discuss the other three points: More profit (increased turnover) This speaks for itself. More services means more turnover, which ultimately means more profit, but of course the caveat is the services need to be profitable overall during whatever period you’re assessing. Liquidity limitations (cannot get set for unlimited amounts at acceptable odds) With most services there is a natural limit to how much you have on their selections. Firstly, limits are driven by the fact many bookies will only bet you for a certain amount before the odds are reduced, and taking lower prices impacts your POT%. Secondly, some limits are due simply to the fact that one may only be comfortable betting a certain amount before the bet sizes get too large for their comfort zone. Protecting bookie accounts (spreading focus of bets on a wide variety of markets so accounts are not shut down) This one is absolutely critical, and in fact in this modern age probably deserves to be number 1. The reality is those who 'specialise' are the first to get restricted or banned by the greedy corporates. The key is to have the bookies and their bots/traders believe you're just another Joe Bloggs getting lucky on the punt. The best way to do this is have a dabble on a bit of everything. I've been advising members for years to place bets across a wide variety of racing and sports options, so you aren't flagged as someone who is betting successfully specialising on a certain niche. Most smart professionals and punters are happy even just to 'break even' betting on a variety of racing and sports outside their key specialty, in order to keep the bookies off guard. However, the key topic I want to discuss is DIVERSIFICATION Diversification is a key element of successful investing, and is defined as the process of allocating capital in a way that reduces the exposure to any one particular asset or risk. A common path towards diversification is to reduce risk or volatility by investing in a variety of assets. Let’s take a look at how this is achieved in other forms of investment: Property In property, investors seek to reduce their risk by investing in a number of properties, as they expect overall that their properties will increase in value over time. However, every market is different, and rises and falls at varying times. As a result, an Australian property investor may, for example, purchase one property in each state of Australia, so he has exposure to each different market and will benefit overall as each state goes through its various growth cycles over time. If one property falls in value, it isn’t disastrous as the investor can simply hold onto that property and still sell or release equity in the other properties as they increase in value. The biggest risk is if a property investor takes up a loan that is ‘cross-collateralised’ with the other properties. This is where the bank uses the collateral for one loan as collateral for another loan. In simple terms it means the bank considers the whole portfolio together, so if one property loses a significant amount of value, then they can call in the loans on all the properties. Sometimes cross-collateralising can allow someone to obtain a bigger loan, or obtain a lower interest rate. However, it also means one poor investment can ruin an entire portfolio, which is why I personally wouldn’t advise cross-collateralising an investment property portfolio. Shares In the share market, investors often buy a variety of different stocks (or a fund) in order to diversify. This means they own a number of stocks, so that if the majority of the stocks go up in value, and a minority go down in value (for relatively equivalent amounts), then overall the portfolio will be in profit. I’m not a major expert in shares (I stopped trading shares a long time ago when I realised that the profits available through betting far outweighed those available through shares, and for what I consider lower risk), but I tried to think of a situation where investors leveraged or increased their risk, even if ‘diversifying’. Some investors like more risk for more return, so trade in CFDs. A CFD (Contract for Difference) is a tradable instrument that mirrors the movements of the asset underlying it. It allows for profits or losses to be realized when the underlying asset moves in relation to the position taken, but the actual underlying asset is never owned. However, the kicker is, it is a leveraged derivative. So basically, you can invest 5% of a share, but be exposed to 100% of its value. That’s great if the share goes up, but is disastrous if the share goes down, which is why many people have been bankrupted losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on poor trades through CFDs, and they are banned in many countries. Why am I telling you all of this and how does it relate to betting? As you know, we advise you have a 100-unit bank for each individual service. Well when following multiple services, one must decide how to operate their bank across numerous services, and how much each bank should be worth. There’s a few ways to do this. Let’s assume someone follows 5 services. Option A Run an equal separate bank for each service Service A: 100 units (20%) Service B: 100 units (20%) Service C: 100 units (20%) Service D: 100 units (20%) Service E: 100 units (20%) So if you had a $25,000 total bank, each service would have a separate $5,000 bank, betting $50 per unit. This simple & straightforward methodology can be effective. Option B Have different banks for each service based on your own assessment of their previous success/performance/profitability, expected variance and number of units they invest per week. Service A: 100 units (40%) Service B: 100 units (20%) Service C: 100 units (20%) Service D: 100 units (10%) Service E: 100 units (10%) So you still have a $25,000 total bank, but allocate different amounts of the bank to each service based on your assessment of the above parameters. Service A: $10,000 ($100 per unit) Service B: $5,000 ($50 per unit) Service C: $5,000 ($50 per unit) Service D: $2,500 ($25 per unit) Service E: $2,500 ($25 per unit) These banks of course could be variable, and you could re-assess regularly to determine whether a service should have its bank increased or decreased in line with its performance, variance, total monthly units invested and other measurements. Option C Have one bank for all services combined Service A/B/C/D/E: $25,000 ($250 per unit) This option has the most rapid upside potential, but of course that means it also has the greatest risk attached to it as well. Your increased investment per unit means that even if all services only break even except one which makes a 100 unit profit in the year, then you will still make $25,000 profit. The issue however, is that you are also equally exposed to the worst performing service. So if one service loses its bank, you risk losing your entire bank across all of the services you follow. This is similar to cross-collaterising loans in property, or investing in CFDs (leveraged derivatives) on the stock market. Ultimately it can result in extremely strong profits, but also can result in rapid deterioration of the bank. Remember if we circle back to the reason for following multiple services, there are four key reasons More profit (increased turnover) Diversification (reducing risk) Liquidity limitations (cannot get set for unlimited amounts at acceptable odds) Protecting bookie accounts (spreading focus of bets on a wide variety of markets) Whilst Option C is the best for #1, it is actually worse for #2, #3 and #4. You are not reducing your risk through diversification compared to Options A & B, you are not helping to deal with liquidity limitations as your bet sizes are larger, and similarly that is not helping to protect your bookie accounts. We had no idea that any members were utilising Option C, and have been surprised to hear of it occurring previously. That’s why we took the time to write this. So what do we suggest? Ultimately which option you choose is up to you, and everyone has different risk/reward tolerances, expectations and investment goals, but our suggestion would be to consider Option B. Weight your portfolio based on your overall comfort level with each service, based on their previous success/performance/profitability, expected variance and number of units they invest per month. Diversifying in your betting is very important as it is in all investment types, but as with other investment types like property and shares, it’s important to be diversified to both increase profits AND reduce risk. As we always state, the key is focusing on the long term. This again is the same with property and stocks. Short-term investment success in any facet is usually rare, fleeting and insignificant, but long-term success can be exceptional when it comes to any form of investing. The key is patience and balancing risk and reward. In terms of future investment, in most cases how large your bank is currently is irrelevant. What matters is structuring your portfolio to maximise your long-term success. What about when subscribed to numerous services? When you begin subscribing to multiple services as an investment portfolio, it’s important to ensure that your portfolio is balanced in a manner that maximises returns whilst reducing risk and volatility. In the same manner that a share portfolio is diversified to reduce risk, becoming a member of multiple services also diversifies risk. As a result, even though each individual service may recommend a 100-unit betting bank, if you are a member of say 10 services, then a 1000 unit betting bank is too large as your risk is automatically reduced from the portfolio size, and hence having too large a betting bank is reducing the profits you can make. Below is a table showing our recommend unit bank based on the number of individual services you have in your membership portfolio. If you would like further information on bank management relevant to your personal circumstances, please feel free to Contact Us
Tuesday, December 8, 2020
We regularly have members e-mail us relaying various stories and grievances about being banned by certain bookies. As a result we decided to write an article about potential ways to avoid being banned by the corporates. If you continue to follow successful services, you'll see the value of your corporate bookies accounts steadily increasing over time. Whilst this is obviously the aim, and very pleasing, unfortunately it may come (or have already come) with an unwanted side effect. We're talking about being banned by your bookie and it’s a problem encountered by successful punters throughout the world. While many bookmakers are good at generating publicity for taking large bets, you may be surprised just how quickly they ban winning punters. Some bookies only want the ‘mug money’, and target those who have been long-term losing TAB punters. Winners might be grinners, but they can also be quickly banned. The first time it happens can be quite pleasing in some respects, but it quickly gets incredibly frustrating. When deciding whether to limit your bets or close your account, bookmakers will analyse many factors, including: 1) Bet Size: As a general rule the bigger the bets, the more likely it is for your account to be flagged 2) Bet Staking: Punters wagering very specific amounts (for example $117 on one bet, $88 the next) 3) Bet Timing: If you’re betting just before the jump, it doesn’t allow the bookie to manage his risk or exposure as well as they would like 4) Specialising: If you bet exclusively within a certain state (or sport) you’re also more likely to be limited or banned 5) Profitability: Both in terms of dollars and profit on turnover. Bookmakers run client profiling software over your account to ascertain whether you’re winning at a level that is higher than they are comfortable with 6) Withdrawals: How much money are you taking out of your account, and are they likely to get these funds back? So how do you avoid being banned, or otherwise find a way to still get your bets on? Some suggestions are as follows: 1) Spread your bets across multiple bookies. We would consider this particularly important if you are betting over $80 per unit. Although we continually spruik the merits of holding accounts with numerous bookies, they will ban you eventually if you are betting in large unit sizes and winning. Consider having a portion of your stake with these bookies, and placing the rest with other bookmakers (or Betfair!!). Bets of over $100 often trigger a review. So if we suggest having say 1.8 units on a runner, and you are betting $100 per unit (total bet $180), consider having $60 bets with three different bookies. 2) Consider staking your bets in 'round numbers'. This is actually why the staking for our services are usually in round numbers (e.g. 1 unit, 2 units, 0.5 units, 1.5 units etc). If you are staking in exact/specific amounts (e.g. $91, $132 etc), the bookies may assume you are following a service, or staking using a measured system or strategy. As a result they may cotton on to you quickly once you start winning. If a suggestion is for 0.91 units and you bet $100 per unit, you may want to consider staking 0.90 units instead. Alternatively, place say $80 across one or two bookies, and the other $11 with another bookie. Although an uneven number, at least because the $11 unit staking is small, and hence the bookie will be less concerned. 3) Place your fixed odds bets early where practicable. Not seconds before race start time. This allows the bookie time to manage their risk or exposure by betting back through corporates. As we've outlined previously, it often results in you obtaining the best price anyway. 4) Diversify If you usually only bet on certain sports, or certain days / meetings / venues, hopefully our services add another dimension to your betting portfolio which reduces the bookie's belief that you are specialising in anything in particular, and may even have the bookies believing you are just sitting around at home bored betting on the main racing events. 5) Small meaningless bets It can be worth having a number of small meaningless bets to reduce your average bet size in their systems, and have small bets across other states, on various obscure sports or overseas races etc. Even if you just break even, or even make a slight loss, the reduction in your average bet size and the fact the bookie thinks they might get some of your winnings back will have them leave your account open for longer. It's all about the bookie not believing that you are only following a tried and true method which will undoubtedly produce long term profits. As soon as they see you are 100% structured, measured, and are not going to be a losing punter long term, they will eventually cotton on to you and close your account. The longer you can hold them off from restricting or closing your account, the better! Placing bets on multis and major sporting events are good ways of keeping bookies off your scent. You can always place the opposite bets with another bookie, or lay off on Betfair. 6) Withdrawals One other way to help extend the life of your account prior to it being restricted or closed is to simply not make any withdrawals! Of course, this isn't possible for everyone, but given certain bookies with the best prices could be quick to cut you off, where possible consider making deposits but no withdrawals until the time when they call you and say they have to transfer your funds back to you, as your account has been closed. It's just another factor that will keep you off their radar for longer, as if you're not actually making withdrawals, you can trick the bookies into believing they still have a 'chance' to get their funds back. And what if you've already been banned from multiple bookies? 7) Get on Betfair! This should be on the radar for any punter, but for those of you who have been banned from multiple bookies, it is of particular importance. Betfair is a godsend for professional punters as they actually encourage you by reducing your commission rate as your bets increase. It’s in their best interests to attract high turnover punters to the site as they don’t have any exposure like a bookmaker, instead they just take a small percentage of all the winning bets. We've already written at length about the fact that on a very large proportion of occasions, our winners could have been backed at a better price than the fixed odds or totes through Betfair. If you're severely restricted in your use of corporate bookies, give them the flick and start focusing on Betfair! If you keep following Winning Edge Investments services you may be surprised how quickly you get your first e-mail or phone call to inform you that your account has been restricted or closed (if it hasn't happened already). So please be vigilant in following the advice above. We trust it will help! We now suggest reading the follow up article to this: ACCOUNT RESTRICTIONS AND WHAT CAN BE DONE
Tuesday, December 1, 2020
Before the days of minimum bet laws, corporate bookmakers could close your account and there could be no argument as there was no legal basis for them having to keep any account open. They can no longer close your account purely on the basis of it being a winning account which is what you will have if you follow our successful services. They can, and will, restrict your account so that you will no longer receive what are considered promotional products. Here is a race as shown on a well-known betting website. Here is the same race after logging in using a restricted account. As you can see on this account the only products available are Win & Place fixed and mid tote. Even so, this account will not have bets accepted to win more than that covered by minimum bet laws. This a problem encountered by successful punters throughout the world. We are fortunate that minimum bet laws have been introduced in Australia, as many countries don’t have the same protection and accounts are just closed. You will often see bookmakers using large bets as a promotional device. This is particularly true of Tabcorp on their Thoroughbred Central channel in the final minutes leading up to a race. You can just about guarantee that any bet shown that results in a payout over the minimum bet laws is from a long-term losing punter. The bookmakers want ‘mug money’ and that isn’t from a long-term winners. In some ways you can view your first restriction as a badge of honour but it quickly becomes very tiring. There are a number of things that you can do to avoid this situation as long as possible and stay under the radar. It is likely that once a human looks at your winning account that it may be restricted. The person that does this is a business intelligence analyst and they have key indicators that they use for determining what type of restrictions they will put on your account. Bet Size and Return Large bets will attract attention quickly as will a bet that has a high payout. When betting with one of the large corporates, try to avoid placing bets over $150 and any bet that will have a payout over $1,000. It is relatively simple to split a bet between multiple bookmakers. It would be much better to place two $100 bets instead of a single $200 bet. Consider that any bet over $100 is over and above what can be called recreational punting. Bet Staking Wagering very specific amounts (for example $123 on one bet, $64 the next) is like a red rag to a bull and an indicator that you are utilising a service. You want to have a number of set values that you bet and they should be round figures or multiples of $5. If you’re going to bet over $100 make sure it is in multiples of $25. Then you have to consider what to do when you decide to increase your unit size. If you have a good run with a bookmaker, an increase in the size of your bets won’t attract too much attention as that can be viewed as giving the money back quicker. Bet Timing Try and avoid betting too close before the jump. Decisions on a potential lay off are made during this time. If you’re betting just before the jump, it can compromise the bookies ability to manage their risk or exposure as well as they would like. If your bet causes a problem on the race, the risk manager will likely send your account directly to the business intelligence analyst for review. Betting early in the day, when taking advantage of early prices, has no such impact. If you can get a starting price guarantee that reduces the risk of a price blowing out. A starting price product like that is considered promotional and that may eventually be removed from your account. Intercept There is a very good chance that you have seen this occur. All or part of your bet may be reviewed by a risk manager. This may happen if the return exceeds a specific amount based on the type of race, location, and if your account has restrictions or watch notifications. If part of your bet has been accepted and the full amount falls with the minimum bet laws, they must accept the bet. If the entire amount is reviewed, you can expect the bet to be rejected as they can change the price during the time of the review. The review must usually be completed with thirty seconds. Some bookies allow up to sixty seconds. This is another reason not to bet in the last few seconds before the jump. If you find a large number of your bets with a bookmaker are being intercepted, try reducing your bet size. If your bets start getting caught by intercept frequently, the risk manager will refer them for review and the writing is on the wall for an account closure. Specialising If you bet exclusively within a certain state (or sport) you’re also more likely to be restricted. It is worthwhile having bets in racing and sports so that you’re account looks less specialised. It is worth noting that at this time there are no minimum bet laws in place for sport so it is particularly important for members of our sports services to keep these principles in mind when placing bets. Having small bets on sports don’t have the same distraction value that they did before minimum bet laws were introduced. However, if you’re betting a significant amount on racing it would be worthwhile introducing some sporting services to your betting portfolio. Withdrawals A bookmaker has your full transaction history, including how much you deposit and withdraw. You may well encounter periods where no matter what you, do the balance of your account with a bookmaker can be wiped out. This doesn’t mean that overall you aren’t profitable. It is just another example of variance at play. It can go the other way too, and it may seem like every bet you place with one bookmaker is a winner. You may be able to take advantage of an account being reduced to almost nothing. Leave it dormant for a while and you may get a deposit match offer, but don’t count on it. You still need a good number of accounts so that you can get the best prices. They will always welcome a deposit. If you make regular withdrawals it will be noted and may result in restrictions. What they look at is how much money are you taking out of your account, and are they likely to get these funds back? The Bonus Bet Conundrum When you get bonus bets it pays to be sensible in how you use them. When there are winnings from a bonus bet the terms and conditions will have a turnover requirement. These can include a number of times the profit must be turned over. It can be between one and three times. In addition, there may be a time limit such as a three months. While it makes sense to use a bonus bet on a high-priced runner, you must ensure you meet the turnover requirements when you have a big win on a bonus bet. If you play the exotics using bonus bets, just think about what would happen if you hit that massive $50K quaddie using a bonus bet and you have to turnover $150K within three months. Chasing Bonus Bets There is a thing called bonus bet abuse. Never place a second bet in a race where you have used a bonus bet. It can be called arbitrage and your bet(s) may be voided. There are promotions where you get bonus bets if your selection places but doesn’t win. For example, they may be on the first four races at a specific race meeting. If you only place bets with a bookmaker on those races and no other races on the day, that can be classed as bonus bet abuse and just watch how quickly you’re not eligible for those promotions. It is much better to try and get the best prices and if you end up with a bonus bet just consider that as good luck. Have a look at the market percentage at a comparable time for each race it is offered, and compare it to a race where it is not. The bonus bets are paid for somehow. Profitability – The Final Arbiter No matter what happens, your account will be reviewed when it reaches a certain amount of turnover and the corresponding profit. There is going to be a long-term level of profit that is higher than they are comfortable with so eventually, no matter the steps you take, a long term profitable customer will have their account restricted. Betfair It’s a cliché but if you’re not using Betfair you are losing money. Betfair is an exchange and they charge a commission on winning bets which usually makes the market percentage on Betfair much lower than that of a bookmaker. Betfair will never restrict an account, and even offer a discount on commission for high volume punters. You will often exceed the best price available from bookmakers on Betfair, particularly on high priced selections. The only restriction can be low liquidity in early markets.ccount restrictions and minimum bet laws Account restrictions and minimum bet laws If you have an account that was heavily restricted or even closed before the minimum bet laws were put in place, there is something you can do about it. Oftentimes accounts were restricted in such a way that the maximum amount you could bet was a dollar or two. The idea of this is that it would have the effect of you taking your business elsewhere without having to close the account, so that you could still bet in markets where you’re not profitable. These restrictions are still in place in some accounts. If you have one of these it is quite simple to get your account changed so that you can bet according to the requirements of the minimum bet laws. Try and place a bet that would be subject to the minimum bet laws and when you get the message on the screen take a screen capture and save it to a file. Make sure that you have the race number, date and time on the screen. The next step is to call customer service. Tell them that they are not honouring the minimum bet laws and that your account needs to be corrected accordingly. If they say they can’t do that, ask them for the name and email address of their compliance officer. If they refuse, just get the standard email address from their Contact Us webpage. Send an email stating that they are not compliant with the minimum bet laws on your account and that it needs to be fixed. Include the screen capture that you took in the email. Advise them that if it isn’t corrected immediately you will be taking a complaint to the relevant regulator. If you don’t get a response within that time scale, make a complaint. Account closure and minimum bet laws If you have an account that was closed before the minimum bet laws were put in place it is more difficult but you can operate again. If you have an email from the bookmaker stating that they are closing your account that is helpful. The easiest way to proceed is to try and open a new account. If that works, all is well and no further action needs to be taken. If they refuse to create a new account, you may need to talk to customer service again and get the name and email address of the compliance officer. Write an email stating that you wish your account to be reopened. They won’t want to give you a new account as it won’t have your full history. If you don’t end up with an account after this make a complaint to a state regulator and include any correspondence you have. It may not seem that way but it is fair and reasonable that you only have one account with a bookmaker, so where multiple brands are owned by one company you may have to settle for one account across all their brands. It should be obvious, but make sure you are pleasant and polite when talking or writing to bookmaker staff. If you come across as aggressive in any way they have grounds under the Know Your Customer requirements to close or not allow you to have an account. This is because you will be giving them grounds to suspect that you are a problem gambler and they will have the evidence of your phone call, which will be recorded, and emails you send. Minimum bet laws are useful but remember you will only end up with a restricted account when you go through these processes. This article is a follow up to our popular article 'How do I avoid getting banned by the bookies?: How do I avoid getting banned by ... - Winning Edge Investments ACCOUNT RESTRICTIONS AND WHAT CAN BE DONE
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Understanding market percentages You most likely would have heard presenters on Sky Racing or Racing.com lamenting about a country meeting where the bookmakers have opened up the market at say 140%. Often they say it to explain why the odds for each runner are so low, or why every runner is drifting in the market. But what do these percentages really mean? Let’s show you an example of a real previous race to explain market percentages. This was Gold Coast R5 on Sat 22 Nov, a Class 5 1400m handicap. Early Bet365 & Sportsbet prices were taken at 5.30pm on Fri 22 Nov, the day before the race. No Horse Bet365 % of market Sportsbet % of market Combined Best Price Total % 1 Sigmund 3.0 33.3 4.0 25.0 4 25.0 3 Curfew 2.7 37.0 2.25 44.4 2.7 37.0 4 Domini 7.5 13.3 9.0 11.1 9 11.1 5 Some Call Her Wild 9.0 11.1 6.5 15.4 9 11.1 6 Tragedy 17 5.9 17 5.9 17 5.9 7 Full Blast 26 3.8 8.5 11.8 26 3.8 8 Rosey Joan 5 20.0 26 3.8 26 3.8 Total 124.4 117.4 97.7 The market percentage applied to each runner is calculated by dividing 100 by their odds. So with number 1 Sigmund, 100/$3=33.3%, and with number 9 Rosey Joan, 100/5=20.0%. Now if you had proportionally backed each runner to win $100 with Bet365, due to the market percentage of 124.4%, you would have outlaid $124.40 to get back $100. This is clearly a poor bet, and shows why the higher the market percentage is, the greater the bookmaker’s advantage is, and the more difficult it is to beat the bookmaker long term. Incredibly, because the two bookmaker prices were so different, even in this early market by taking the highest possible price with each bookie, this gave you a market percentage of 97.7%. This actually means you could potentially have backed every runner in the race for a profit. This is called arbitrage. No Horse Combined Best Price Bet to win $100 1 Sigmund 4 25.00 3 Curfew 2.7 37.00 4 Domini 9 11.10 5 Some Call Her Wild 9 11.10 6 Tragedy 17 5.90 7 Full Blast 26 3.80 8 Rosey Joan 26 3.80 Total $97.70 As you can see, the total spend on the race would have been $97.70, for a $100 return and a $2.30 profit. Note that given this race was the day before the race, scratchings and deductions could have come into play, but for now understanding the concept of market percentages, and how they are calculated, is what’s important.
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Two of the most common questions we receive in relation to horse racing investing are: “How much can you expect to win?” and, “If your tips are so good why do you sometimes go on a losing streak?” Let’s break this down into several parts. As an example, we may price a horse at $4 (25% chance of winning), but the horse is $5 (20% chance of winning) with the bookmakers. When this situation occurs, we may determine this to be a suitable investment. Tips are only provided when the rated price is shorter than the odds available in the market. This is the basis of punting profitably. The mathematical definition of expectation is the sum of probabilities of an outcome, multiplied by the “payoff” when that outcome occurs. In the examples to follow, the payoff is the amount that you either win or lose. If you were to bet 1 unit at $5 with a hors e that we rate at $4, this means 25% of the time you will win $4, and the remaining 75% of the time you will lose your $1 investment. Mathematically, the expectation is: (4 x 0.25) + (0.75 x -1) = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25. So for each unit you bet, you expect to receive a profit of 0.25, or a profit on turnover of 25%. If you bet $100 a unit, on average you will receive $25 of profit on each bet. Given the number of bets we provide, and the effect of compounding, profits can grow very quickly. Where the expectation is a positive number, the terminology is ‘+EV’ (Positive Expected Value). Obviously, and clearly, the better the odds you get for an event the higher your expectation. If you managed to find a bookie offering $5.50 instead of $5, your expectation would be (4.5 x 0.25) + (0.75 x -1) = 37.5%. That is a huge difference and demonstrates the importance of having access to as many bookmakers as possible, and meticulously finding the best odds on offer. In addition, bookies offer sign up bonuses of up t o $500 which both reduce your initial risk as well as giving added impetus to your bankroll growth. Obviously, however, if you only bet once you aren’t going to receive a profit of 25%; You will either win and receive a 400% return on your investment, or you will lose, resulting in the loss of your entire investment or a profit of -100%. As you can see, both of these outcomes are significantly different from the expectation of a profit of 25%. The varying results you get away from the expectation is called variance. The more events you bet on (mathematically speaking an increase in sample size), the less variance there is. As the sample size increases, the actual return will trend to the expected return. This is why you will not see a return of 25% after one event, but you will start seeing it after 100 events or more. Looking into variance another way, let’s say that you and a friend toss a coin. If it comes up tails, you get $2. If it comes up heads, you need to pay your friend $1. Obviously this is a great bet for you, but you are going to lose 50% of the time. There will be stretches where heads comes up numerous times in a row and as a high percentage of a specif ied sample (say, 8 out of 10 tosses). This is natural statistical variation and is unavoidable. The coin example also demonstrates the importance of having a bankroll and managing it appropriately. Imagine if you only had $1 - you have a 50% chance of going bust after just one toss (and this doesn’t include the probability of winning the first toss but then going bust after a run of heads that your bankroll cannot sustain) and missing out on what would be highly profitable betting situation – what a waste! Clearly, the larger your bankroll, the smaller the chance you have of going bust. At the same time, if you bet too small a percentage of your bankroll per event you will be unnecessarily giving up potential profits without making a meaningful reduction in risk. An important concept here is that there are only a finite number of events to place a bet on. Back to the coin example; imagine you could only engage in 10 tosses. If you bet a tiny percentage of your bankroll, you could be sure you wouldn’t go bust but you could also be certain that you would make little profit relative to your bankroll. The aim here is to outlay as much as possible while still removing, or greatly mitigating, the risk of going bust (depending on your risk tolerance). This is a fine balancing act and falls under the realms of a concept called maximizing ‘+EG’ (Positive Expected Growth), and is a central tenet of astute bankroll management. At Winning Edge Investments, we structure our bankroll and betting amounts so that there is a minimal chance of going bust while still allowing the ability to make significant profits relative to the bankroll outlay. Essentially, we have produced strategies that are optimal on the risk/return scale. What this all means, is that Horse Racing investing is a long-term exercise. In the short term, variance leads to fluctuations in betting results. But in the long term, the a bility to pick winners & place bets on +EV situations will ensure sustainable profits. We suggest you read the next article in this series: Dealing with losing streaks - Winning Edge Investments If you are interested in taking your betting to the next level, we recommend you to sign up to our newsletter to receive a copy of our free 120 page Betting Information Pack . We send out a weekly newsletter full of free Horse Racing and Sports Betting tips, education and information to help you becom e a far more profitable punter. Read more about our Membership Options here
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
There have been many articles written on the psychological aspects of dealing with the inevitable losing runs that you will encounter if you gamble. But one of the most important aspects of getting your head around a losing run psychologically is to know the worst losing sequence you can expect. This is generally termed the ELS (expected losing sequence) and the formula for calculating it is shown below, but firstly consider the following two systems: 1. System 1 – it has a winning strike rate of 20% and long term has made 50% POT and is expected to continue to make 50% POT into the future. 2. System 2 – it also has a winning strike rate of 20% but long term it has only made 5% POT, it is also expected to continue to make just the 5% POT. If you had a 1000 bets from each system over the course of the next year then which system would you expect to have had the longest consecutive losing sequence? You could be excused for choosing System 2 as it has the lower POT, but in fact both systems can expect to encounter the same consecutive losing sequence of 31 bets. The reason for this is that the expected losing sequence (ELS) is only dependent on the winning strike rate and the number of bets, it has nothing to do with the winning dividend or profitability of a System. Consider a case where you had a $1 bet on a six coming up on every roll for 1000 rolls of a fair dice, it doesn’t matter if the operator is paying you odds for each six of 2/1 (50% loss on turnover), 5/1 (breakeven) or 8/1 (50% POT) as that will not affect your ELS which in this case will be 38. Obviously the dividend will make a difference to your overall profitability, but that is not the point of this article. The point being emphasised is that even with a profitable system, you have to expect (as it will happen) a consecutive losing sequence that is dependent only on the long term winning strike rate of that system and it is imperative that you manage your bankroll (and head) accordingly. Obviously you also need to continue to monitor whether the “edge” still exists, but knowing the variance you can expect to encounter over a long series of bets helps with this monitoring. Finally, if you had (or subscribed to) a System that has a great record of long term profitability and a strike rate of 20% you will certainly at some stage (or if you are extremely unlucky then initially) back 31 consecutive losers. It is easier to handle that mentally and stick to your guns if you both expect it (as it will happen) and you have prepared in advance to manage your bankroll accordingly. ELS = LN(#bets)/-LN(1-SR) LN - Loge #bets – number of bets SR – Strike Rate We recommend you read the next article in this series - The Mathematics of runs of outs and losing streaks: The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or... - Winning Edge Investments
Sunday, August 9, 2020
The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula: n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets) ln = natural logarithm1 P = probability2 | .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’ Simply put, let's say you are betting on Heads in a coin toss (with a 50% expected value). You are still going to have runs of losing streaks and winning streaks. Over 500 coin tosses, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 9 losers in a row during that period. If your Strike Rate is 40%, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 12 losers in a row during that period. It's very important to understand and appreciate this, and realise that even on a losing day, the next winner and winning streak is also statistically set to occur. On the positive side, over 500 coin tosses, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 9 winners in a row during that period, and if your Strike Rate is 40%, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 7 winners in a row during that period. In fact, on say a 40% win strike rate, the expected time of occurrence of 5 losers in a row is after just 13 bets, and 10 losers in a row after just 165 bets. Once you aware of this, you realise the power of betting with a bank, and simply following the staking and not getting too emotional over any winning or losing period. Stick with your services and the strategies, and you will be rewarded. The world's most successful investor, Warren Buffet (who incidentally started his career in horse racing) once famously stated 'the Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". The statement is equally adept for punters also. Below are tables that show you the LIKELY losing streaks based on pure mathematics in relation to each expected win rate. It’s very important that people understand that this is not the possible losing streaks, but the LIKELY losing streaks. Take the 50% win rate example above (tossing a coin). Many can’t comprehend that when tossing a coin 100 times, you are LIKELY to hit 7 losers in a row during that 100 toss period. Many successful and highly profitable horse racing punters and tipping services operate with expected win rates between 30% to 40%. It’s important to note that favourites generally win between 30% to 35% of the time. Yet some individuals sign up for a very profitable service, and then unsubscribe or switch to another service the moment a losing run eventuates, even though this is LIKELY or frankly CERTAIN to happen at some point. Let’s take the example of a very profitable service operating with a 30% win rate (but may have an average win price of $5, making it very profitable long term with a big edge. If you subscribed to such a service, and then had 13 losers in a row early on, would you simply unsubscribe? Many would, and do, despite this being a LIKELY mathematical scenario. It doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with the tipster, service or methods, it is just pure mathematics. This number creeps to 19 LIKELY losers in a row after 1000 bets. The above table shows how quickly the LIKELY losing streak will happen based on the expected win rate of any method. As you can see, it is surprisingly quickly that a losing run will be experienced even when you have a 50% win rate (such as tossing a coin). This is why many members get the feeling that they are ‘bad luck’ or that the service isn’t performing as advertised. It’s simply because they don’t understand the mathematics. So the question is, will you stick solid when a profitable service has it’s mathematically inevitable losing period? Or will you simply give up and move onto the next service, hoping that the inevitable mathematical certainty of a losing period miraculously and magically doesn’t happen to it?
Friday, August 7, 2020
You may have read about EV (Expected Value) in gambling, it is simply the value; either positive or negative; that is expected for a bet. So if I offered you a choice between one series of bets with a +0.1 EV (10% edge) and another series of bets with a +0.5 EV (50% edge), which would you choose? Most people would probably take the +0.5 EV series as it naturally seems the correct thing to do. But you need to know more before you choose - firstly what if the +0.1 EV series of bets were all at even money ($2) and the +0.5 EV series of bets were all at 100/1 ($101), which is the better series of bets then? The correct answer is the 10% edge at $2 is better as it can deliver four and a half times higher bank growth/bet than the 50% edge at $101 if you were to utilise the Kelly Criterion for your bet sizing (which you should). The full Kelly criterion staking for a 10% edge at even money is to bet 10% of your bank and this should deliver (over a large series of bets) expected bank growth of 0.5% per bet. This compares to Kelly staking of 0.5% of your bank for a 50% edge at $101 which would only deliver expected bank growth of 0.11% per bet i.e. four and a half times less. You would need to more than double your 50% edge to a 115% edge for the 100/1 series of bets to achieve the same bank growth per bet as the 10% edge at even money if you are utilising the Kelly criterion. The final piece of the puzzle that you need to know before correctly choosing is how many bets are there in each series over a period of time, obviously if there were four and a half times more $101 bets in the same time period then you could choose either series; as bank growth over time would be the same; but in reality you would eventually have difficulty getting set for large bets at $101 and/or achieving that price. In conclusion maximising wealth from any edge should be the principle aim and to achieve this you need to know what your edge is for each odds range and how many bets can be generated with that edge at each odds range. You also need to manage your risk of ruin effectively and this is typically achieved by using a factor of Kelly instead of full Kelly and by sufficiently testing your edge to ensure it is real and that it can be maintained. Finally always be aware that a smaller edge at a low price can often hold the most “Value”. Ian G Strike rate required at various odds ranges to achieve 1% bank growth per bet utilising Full Kelly criterion Kelly Factor - 100% Bets 1000 A B C D E F G I Divi Odds to 1 SR ROI (level Stks) EV Full Kelly E(G) ELS $1.50 $0.50 73.2% 10% 0.10 19.6% 1.00% 5 $2.00 $1.00 57.1% 14% 0.14 14.1% 1.00% 8 $3.00 $2.00 40.1% 20% 0.20 10.1% 1.00% 13 $4.00 $3.00 31.3% 25% 0.25 8.3% 1.00% 18 $5.00 $4.00 25.8% 29% 0.29 7.3% 1.00% 23 $7.00 $6.00 19.5% 36% 0.36 6.0% 1.00% 32 $9.00 $8.00 15.8% 42% 0.42 5.3% 1.00% 40 $11.00 $10.00 13.4% 47% 0.47 4.7% 1.00% 48 $13.00 $12.00 11.7% 52% 0.52 4.4% 1.00% 55 $17.00 $16.00 9.5% 61% 0.61 3.8% 1.00% 69 $21.00 $20.00 8.1% 69% 0.69 3.5% 1.00% 82 $34.00 $33.00 5.6% 91% 0.91 2.8% 1.00% 119 $51.00 $50.00 4.2% 115% 1.15 2.3% 1.00% 161 $101.00 $100.00 2.7% 171% 1.71 1.7% 1.00% 254 $501.00 $500.00 1.1% 456% 4.56 0.9% 1.00% 619 Strike rate required at various odds ranges to achieve 0.5% bank growth per bet utilising Full Kelly criterion Bets 1000 A B C D E F G I Divi Odds to 1 SR ROI (level Stks) EV Full Kelly E(G) ELS $1.50 $0.50 71.3% 7% 0.07 13.9% 0.50% 6 $2.00 $1.00 55.0% 10% 0.10 10.0% 0.50% 9 $3.00 $2.00 38.1% 14% 0.14 7.1% 0.50% 14 $4.00 $3.00 29.4% 18% 0.18 5.9% 0.50% 20 $5.00 $4.00 24.1% 20% 0.20 5.1% 0.50% 25 $7.00 $6.00 17.9% 25% 0.25 4.2% 0.50% 35 $9.00 $8.00 14.4% 29% 0.29 3.7% 0.50% 45 $11.00 $10.00 12.1% 33% 0.33 3.3% 0.50% 54 $13.00 $12.00 10.5% 36% 0.36 3.0% 0.50% 62 $17.00 $16.00 8.4% 42% 0.42 2.6% 0.50% 79 $21.00 $20.00 7.0% 48% 0.48 2.4% 0.50% 95 $34.00 $33.00 4.8% 62% 0.62 1.9% 0.50% 141 $51.00 $50.00 3.5% 78% 0.78 1.6% 0.50% 194 $101.00 $100.00 2.1% 115% 1.15 1.2% 0.50% 321 $501.00 $500.00 0.8% 296% 2.96 0.6% 0.50% 870 +0.5 EV at $101 $101.00 $100.00 1.5% 50% 0.50 0.5% 0.11% 460
Thursday, August 6, 2020
Perspective and Building An Investment Mentality Winning Edge Investments was created to change the face of tipping services in Australia. This is an industry where some services simply fabricate their completely unverified, unaudited and unachievable results at the end of the year, when they deliberately chose not to transparently disclose these throughout the year. Some don't post their results for months during losing periods. Others record their odds using unachievable methodologies such as the highest possible fixed odds price at any time in betting. Another actually records at the highest of the highest fixed price at the time the bet is sent, or the highest of any other price during betting including Betfair SP (without commission removed), whilst neither actually advise you whether to bet early or late. Incredibly, others promote corporate bookmakers with their tipping services, hence receiving commission payments based on your losses. You can read a lot more about their tricks here: 12 ways to spot a questionable tipping service - WEI (winningedgeinvestments.com) We decided to create a service that offered services from only the best quality analysts, highly respected in the industry for their knowledge and expertise, with proven track records of success. We decided to transparently post results to accurately reflect the realities of investing, which comes with highs and lows, but ultimately results in enormous success for those with the mental willpower to succeed in the investing world. We decided to record results fairly, based on the actual advice given before the event, achievable even for those who work full time and only have a few minutes each day to place their bets. Ultimately, the proof is in the pudding. Had you signed up to all 8 of our racing services on 1 January 2019, taking a quarterly membership to all, utilising our discount offers, profit guarantee and automatic loyalty bonus credits, you would have made a 396% tax-free ROI on your membership investment. An $8,017 investment would have collected $31,790 (betting $100 per unit). Had you done so since 1 January 2018 you would have made a 518% tax-free ROI on your membership investment. A $20,294 investment would have collected $105,200 (betting $100 per unit). Of course the investment remains stagnant, whilst the dollars invested per unit increase linearly with your unit size, so betting $200 per unit would have amassed $210,400 from the $20,294 investment over 2 years, and so on. This is why the most famous investor in the world, Warren Buffet, has a famous quote: "My favourite holding period is forever" This is despite 2 of the services in 2018, and 2 different services in 2019, making a loss over the calendar year. Across our 8 racing services, we had 18 profitable months out of 24, at an average profit of 68 units per month. There were only 6 unprofitable months out of 24, at an average loss of 30 units per month. Overall, an average profit of 44 units per month. Take a look at the biggest success stories in stocks. Apple Shares last year dropped from $225 to $148. An unintelligent, jittery investor would have sold at the low point of $148, and missed out on the recent gains that have seen the latest share price reach $318. Google Shares (Alphabet) also at a similar time fell from $1,252 to $991. Again the short term, jittery investor would have sold at $991, with Google shares reaching a recent high of $1,480. Unfortunately some with a short term mindset do the same with tipping services. Despite these services having proven themselves as highly profitable over long periods of time, members get jittery and stop, usually just before the next big winning run. An article explaining variance in more detail can be found below: Variance and the importance of sound bankroll managemen... - WEI (winningedgeinvestments.com) Our previous advice has stated you should need a 100 unit betting bank per service. Whilst this is the case for a single service, we are revising this advice for multiple services. If subscribing to 8 services, that would mean an 800-unit bank would have been required. However, the biggest losing month in 2 years was 105 units, and the biggest losing period was 133 units. Our new advice no longer suggests an 800 unit bank for 8 services, but still conservatively allocates a 400 unit bank to 8 services. No fanfare or crazy claims. Just a legitimate opportunity to turn 2020 into the year where you start turning your passion into serious long term, tax-free profits. Speed Stars The reality of variance The Speed Stars model has won a remarkable +436 units profit at 44.6% POT in under 2 years. Anyone looking at those numbers on paper would understand and appreciate that those are incredible numbers, and it is a no brainer to invest in such a successful betting model. However, dig deeper into those incredible results & it’s never simple smooth sailing every day or month. Long Term Model Results 70/106 Winning Days – 66.0% That is 36 losing days, or 1 in every 3 days is a loss 17/23 Winning Months – 73.9% That is 6 losing months, or 1 in every 4 months is a loss Explanation Hopefully for some of you the penny has dropped. But let us explain what the point of that exercise was. Successful property and share investors like Warren Buffet focus on the long term. They buy houses, or stocks, because of their long-term growth potential, and then usually ignore them over a long period, to give them the chance to grow. Property owners don’t sit there having the bank revalue their property every day, week, month or even year. Indeed there are many very successful stock investors that also avoid the temptation of checking their stock portfolios any more than once a quarter, and when they do, they hope for a downturn, as it’s an opportunity to buy more quality stock at a discount, which is the opposite of most investors. When you subscribe to a service, you should generally have done your research. You know & trust the analyst, or you know and trust the company offering a new analyst’s services. You set up a bank for that service, and you trust that if you follow their selections & betting information, you will ultimately end up with a positive result. So at what point does your belief in that original plan waive? That is actually something you should define upfront. Write down how much of a downturn you are willing to endure before giving up, and stick to it. When the inevitable downturn occurs, take that piece of paper and listen to your past, unemotional, not frustrated, intelligent investor self. But you know what’s funny? We can’t possibly conceive how anyone could write anything other than: when the 100-unit bank is gone. Otherwise, why have a 100 unit bank? If you are going to quit a service after it makes a 50u loss, then your bank size is incorrect. Let’s say you have a $10k bank. The point of that bank is to protect your capital, but it is capital you are prepared to invest. So, you have a $10k bank, and will bet $100 per unit. But if you plan to give up and unsubscribe or stop following a service after losing $5k, then surely your bank should only be $5k? Therefore, you should only bet $50 per unit, and let your bank last longer. LIGHTBULB! Of course bank management is vital, particularly when you are following multiple services, and a very important article on this topic is available in this Members Information Pack: How to manage your betting banks following multiple services The key point of the above article is that you must have a separate bank for every service you follow, otherwise one poor performing service can wipe out your entire bank and portfolio. Secondly, it mentions that you should allocate the size of each bank to your overall confidence in the service. So some services might have a $20k bank, some a $10k bank and some a $5k bank, for example. People’s reactions to variance We have been offering services publicly for 6 years now, and per the above have experienced, along with our members, many drawdown periods during that time. There are 3 reactions we see from members during what is (in their opinion) a period of substantial or sustained drawdown. They cancel their subscription Whilst there are numerous reasons a member may cancel a subscription (often having nothing to do with the service itself - e.g. moving overseas, work conditions changing etc), a drawdown period certainly is one of them. New members can be trigger happy when they first start and don’t see the immediate positive results shown on the results spreadsheets. Some members just cannot handle a big losing day, so if there is one day that is a wipe-out, they jump ship. Others cannot handle a sustained losing period. It all mounts up in their head, and even though the losing figure may not be substantial in comparison to their bank, they cannot see the light, and give up. For us, the sad element is how many times we have seen a member cancel and have their subscription lapse just a day or two before the inevitable enormous winning day, week and or month. They decide to stop betting for a while until results improve If you’ve done this before, give yourself a slap in the face, then go back and read this article again. Can you imagine how many profits you would have missed out on by doing this? It’s mathematically flawed, as you have endured the drawdown, and will now miss out on the impending upswing. Ultimately if you’ve lost faith in the service, then you must decide whether to cancel the service, or reduce your bank allocation for that service, and hence the units you invest. There are of course times this is appropriate, but if you make a decision, stick to it. Don’t just stop betting, and then go back once profits have been made. It’s a quick way to disappointment, frustration, and reduced profits. As a side note, studies have shown that if say a managed fund makes 10% profit per year, the average mum & dad investor in the fund often makes only half of that. That’s because when they hear bad news they sell, and then when things are good again they buy back into the same or a new managed fund. Ever heard someone advise you to BUY HIGH and SELL LOW? No, but that’s what most people do with shares, and what a lot of punters do when following services as well. They either jump ship and try another service out at the wrong time, or they stop betting until results improve, costing themselves the inevitable profits. They reduce their stakes If this sounds familiar, give yourself a slap on the other cheek. Whilst better than stopping betting completely, unless you have done your research and decided to stick with that decision for the long term (because you’ve reduced your bank and allocated it to another service), then this is again a mathematically flawed decision. It’s always darkest before the dawn… Using Trial Spy as an example, in July 2014 we had lost 9 units. In the preceding month in June, we had only won 9 units. So over the previous 2 months we had basically broken even. As a result of this flat-lining, some members unsubscribed. Then on 2 August 2014, we won 63 units for the day, which included a $30 winner, a $400 exacta and a $3,700 trifecta. This also was the start of a 234 unit winning run (without a drawdown of over 20u) over the next 242 days… Similarly in November 2014 we lost nearly 15u for the month Again, as a result of this, a couple of members unsubscribed… Just before a big run of 67u profit in the next 17 days in December Greyhound Genius is another service that serves as a great example. This service has made 1,104 units profit over the past 5 years, an average of 220.8 units profit per year. The worst result over the past 5 years has been a 172.6 unit profit. Yet from August 2015 to October 2015 it had 3 losing months in a row totalling a -50u LOSS. Had a member unsubscribed at this point, they would have missed out on the 141.4 unit PROFIT in November 2015, and in fact a total of 261.9 units PROFIT over the next 4 winning months. In August 2016 the service made a -49.6 unit LOSS, followed by a 120.9 unit PROFIT the next month in September 2016, and 5 winning months in a row generating 228.1 units PROFIT. In February/March 2017 2 losing months worth 82.2 units LOSS were followed by 278.3 units PROFIT over the next 10 months for a 196.1 unit PROFIT over the 2 month period. Caveat Please note the caveat on all of the above is that you must be following proven, successful, reputable and respected analysts or tips service providers for the above to be valid. It actually doesn’t apply to most tipping service providers, but that comes back to your research and why you selected that particular service in the first place. Which is a topic for another day. Conclusion The point of this article was to put some perspective on losing runs. When it comes to this service, although they are unavoidable, they are also (comparatively) short lived, and as the analysis showed, ultimately inconsequential when taking a long-term view. The challenge is dealing with the mental side of things as they are occurring. Every day placing the bets, watching the bad rides, or photo finish beats, or horses running way down the track, and later appearing injured or lame in steward’s reports. It feels like it’s all happening at once, because it is! That’s what happens during a downturn, and that’s what a drawdown period is. But if you can get out of the ‘day/week/month unit swing’ mentality, and into the ‘biennial unit swing’ mentality, then you will hit investor nirvana, and will reach success, happiness and profit maximisation in far quicker time.
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Check out the below graph. What it shows is that since 1990, the average investor has underperformed against most asset classes, despite investing in managed funds that would have easily matched or even outperformed the above results. Here’s why we are showing you this stunning visual. As you can see above, the average investor’s return over 30 years is just 1.9% per year – compared to a 6.1% return per year for the S&P 500. In other words, the average Joe underperforms the market by over four percentage points. That’s the difference between turning a $10,000 portfolio into $17,588, with the average investor’s return… and $59,082 with the S&P 500’s average return. There are countless reasons for this. But they key one is simply that the average investor does not have the mathematical understanding, emotional intelligence, willpower, patience, or intestinal fortitude to hold tight when they are losing money. You have all heard the old investing adage that will ring true forever: BUY LOW SELL HIGH. Unfortunately, the average investor does the complete opposite. They buy at a high price when every man, his dog and the taxi driver are giving the tip, and then they sell low at the worst price after the stock has crashed. Unfortunately, this also is what losers do when following successful tipping services. They join after a hot period, and then unsubscribe as soon as there is a losing period, which is why their results don’t replicate the overall results of a service. Greyhound Genius is a service that serves as a great example. This service has made 1,104 units profit over the past 5 years, an average of 220.8 units profit per year. The worst result over the past 5 years has been a 172.6 unit profit. Yet from August 2015 to October 2015 it had 3 losing months in a row totalling a -50u LOSS. Had a member unsubscribed at this point, they would have missed out on the 141.4 unit PROFIT in November 2015, and in fact a total of 261.9 units PROFIT over the next 4 winning months. In August 2016 the service made a -49.6 unit LOSS, followed by a 120.9 unit PROFIT the next month in September 2016, and 5 winning months in a row generating 228.1 units PROFIT. In February/March 2017 2 losing months worth 82.2 units LOSS were followed by 278.3 units PROFIT over the next 10 months for a 196.1 unit PROFIT over the 2 month period. Members who ‘bounced’ by unsubscribing or switching to another service during the losing period had nothing to show for their membership period but a sob story blaming the analyst. Those who stuck solid were and continue to be duly rewarded with substantial profits. This is why the team at Winning Edge Investments try so hard to educate and instil an investment mindset into our members. Because this is the key to your investment success, whether you are investing in stocks, bonds, managed funds, property or tipping services. The same mindset is required, or you will ultimately fail. It’s also why we align our business model and incentives to reward those who take this advice for their own success. Our Profit Guarantee Refund ensures that you do not have to pay for your next quarterly or annual membership if the previous period was a loss, completely aligning our interests with yours, and ensuring you can continue for the subsequent upswing in results. The purpose of our Profit Guarantee is to prove that we absolutely have ‘skin in the game’ with you. The vast majority of tips and/or ratings services do not offer any sort of compensation if you lose following their selections. We offer one so that during a period of variance, you can continue receiving the service without the cost of a membership payment. Note this profit guarantee is very generous. If a service makes a 100-unit profit in the first quarter, and then makes a 1-unit loss in the next quarter, you still get your next quarter for free! Our Profit Guarantee applies to all Quarterly or Annual memberships. It’s also why we offer an exclusive and industry leading Loyalty Credit Bonus program, rewarding members with credit bonuses worth up to a stunning 30% for holding multiple active memberships to various services with Winning Edge Investments. You can check out all of our membership options at: Products - Winning Edge Investments
Saturday, August 1, 2020
Betfair is an exchange, which means you are betting against other punters, not against a bookie. It is as simple as placing a fixed odds bet, you click on the current price, state how much you want to bet, and back it. They even have a Betfair SP option for those who want to bet and forget, and you get set at the SP price determined from punters on the exchange. But as you get more into it, you can set a price you want to back a horse at, and if someone else accepts that price, your bet is matched and you're set. Conversely you can also ‘lay’ a horse (e.g. act like a bookie, and take someone's bet at whatever price you like). How is Betfair different to Corporate Bookies? Being a betting exchange, Betfair Australia receive small commissions on winning bets. However Betfair Australia only receive commissions on winning bets made by people in Australia and New Zealand. If those punters are actually losing versus their counterparts in the UK and other countries all around the world, then the commissions are small, as the winners are betting through Betfair UK. As a result, Betfair Australia are actually incentivised to identify WINNING punters and help them win, to increase their commissions on winning bets. Hence why Betfair approached us to inform our members of their platform. It's well known in the industry that our members win handsomely, and they are the type of customers Betfair are wanting to attract. How is Betfair's odds better than Corporate Bookies and the TAB? A perfect example was a day at Clare (Race 2). The TABs were each betting at 118%, which essentially means they take out 18% of all funds invested, and return the rest to punters. The Corporate Bookies were betting between 114% and 120% on closing fixed prices. However Betfair's closing prices were at 101.8% before commissions, meaning only a 1.8% take out of all funds invested, light years better than the bookies and TABs. Believe it or not, the Betfair closing price was better for all 8 runners than either the Best Tote price, or the best closing fixed price of every bookie in Australia. Given this, how can you possibly not have a Betfair Account? Dean’s Tips members were advised to back a horse called Emmadee at Toowoomba. The horse won & paid $71 Best Tote, and best price was $101 with Corporate Bookies. But on Betfair the horse traded at between $430 & $560 during the last 5 mins of betting, and Betfair SP was $260. Just $10 bet on this horse on Betfair netted you up to $5,600, a $4,590 larger profit than simply backing the horse at 100/1 with the corporate bookies. There's been plenty of other Dean’s Tips winners who have paid out at huge odds on Betfair. Havana Cigar was $41-$42 with Corporates and Totes, but traded at between $50 and $80 all during the last 5 mins of betting. Balrov was $23 with Corporates and $19 Best Tote, but traded at between $80 and $120 during the last 20 mins of betting on Betfair. The list goes on. If that's not enough, Betfair's own analysis of all Aus thoroughbred metro and provincial races over a year showed that Betfair SP outperformed Best Tote by 17%. If you haven't already, you really need to do yourself a favour and join Betfair .
Saturday, July 18, 2020
12 ways to spot a questionable tipping service The tips are free You really have to ask yourself, why would any truly successful punter provide quality tips free of charge - what’s in it for them? Sure, they may be starting out and attempting to grow a base, but for most, why would they ever do it? Do you really want to trust someone just starting out? For any serious investment of hard earned dollars, do you trust an apprentice, or a professional? With any good or service, the market generally pays what it’s worth. If it’s free, that usually means it isn’t worth anything. Winning on the punt requires hard work. Punters who’ve put in that hard work value the time they’ve spent on it – many have dedicated their professional careers to it. Economic reality states that they can’t do it and then just give the tips away, free of charge, and allow others to eat into their dividends. If somebody isn’t charging for their tips, they generally either haven’t done the hard work, in which case the tips won’t win over the long-term, or they’re getting paid via other means. Such as… They promote corporate bookmaker links As you would likely expect, any website that advertises bookmakers on their site receives a payment for this. You would have seen the ads offering bonus bet incentives to sign up to the corporate bookie. What you may not know is that this is not a one-off marketing payment. What actually happens is the websites are paid lifetime commissions of anywhere between 20-40% on the LOSSES incurred by punters who signs up through their link. It’s called an affiliate agreement. The bookies pay them monthly. If the punter wins for the month, then there is no payment to the website. But if the punter loses for the month, the website receives 20-40% of those LOSSES. Forever – as long as the punter is using the account. Think about that for a minute. The world works on incentives. That’s why employees of companies are offered bonuses for achieving certain KPIs or objectives aligned with the businesses interests. So any website advertising corporate bookmakers is therefore INCENTIVISED for you to LOSE. Think about how free tips websites operate. Of course, they’re not doing it for free. Websites of any decent quality are very costly to build and maintain. Plus, in addition you must consider the time spent on the website by all of the people working to create the content. This is all funded by advertising corporate bookies. The problem is, they’re funded by losses, so there’s no incentive for these companies to turn you into a winning punter. Instead they provide you with ‘content’, ‘information’ and ‘education’ that’s designed to fool you into believing you have some edge over the market, but in reality is designed solely to encourage you to bet more, when really you are receiving information that will keep you trapped within the 98% of punters who lose long term. Check out this article if you don't believe us! Revealed: tipsters deliberately recommend losing bets to punters | Gambling | The Guardian We should point out that there are some good free informational websites out there that provide plenty of information and data that helps to grow racing. However, one salient point is that all of the free information they provide is readily available to everyone, and is henceforth already ‘baked into the market’. What that means is there is little to no edge using this information to place bets, as the market has already considered all of this free information into the odds of the horses. You still have to beat the significant percentage take-outs of both the Totes and Corporate Bookies. The rapid production of all of this data and information hasn’t changed the simple fact that 98% of punters lose long-term. Consider paid tipping services who also advertise bookmaker affiliates on their websites. In this situation, they can’t lose. They get paid for the tips they provide, but then get paid far more should the tips lose. Again, the incentive is for the tips to lose, and once they have you as a customer having signed up to the bookmaker link, they receive 20-40% of your losses each month, even if you stop paying for their tips. Most people aren’t aware of this fact, making the whole situation quite unethical and unpalatable to many. If the industry was regulated in the way Financial Services is, it wouldn’t be allowed to occur. At Winning Edge Investments, we do not offer bookmaker links or receive affiliate payments for this reason. That way, you can be 100% sure that our sole goal and motivation is for you to profit handsomely from following our information. If you don’t, then we don’t have a business! We are unlike the 99% of other tipping services who continue to flourish and receive substantial payments long after all of the people have stopped paying for their losing tips. Their results aren’t posted on their website regularly - or at all Some sites post their results on their website… but only every now and again, certainly not with any consistent regularity. Without consistent review, it does not give their paying subscribers an opportunity to critically assess whether the results are accurate or not. There are many ways services can ‘fudge’ their results, or ‘cook their books’. They could include winning bets that were never sent, delete losing bets, change the unit staking advised, record at odds that were never available in the first place, or use a methodology that essentially records at the best available price, making the results completely unachievable. Earlier this year we noted many social media 'tipsters' post their annual results, however these results were never transarently provided or posted regularly at any time through the year, and hence were most likely fabricated. Some websites don’t even post their results at all. Some that we have seen ask you to contact them, and they will e-mail you their results sheet. If the results sheet is available, why not make it publicly available at any time on your website, rather than only sending it out when requested? It is glaringly obvious that any site not wanting to put their results on public display has something to hide. Quite possibly, when you request a results spreadsheet it will be completely fabricated, and probably different to the real results sheet sent to actual subscribers if they ever requested it. Lastly, some websites have results on their website - but not in Excel form. Often the results sheet is missing critical information such as the date, horse number etc. Sometimes the sheet is protected with columns or rows missing information. Without an unprotected excel sheet it doesn’t give anyone the opportunity to thoroughly review and analyse. Dodgy services love to post their results in PDF so that no-one can critically analyse or reconcile them in any meaningful way. If you see any of the above, we suggest you run for the hills! They only quote short term results based on the day / week / month Betting should be treated as an investment, with a long-term perspective. Most questionable tipping services shout from the rooftops whenever they have a winning day, week, or month, with no reference to their overall results. Anyone can record big wins over a short period. Even a monkey or octopus randomly pointing at horses will strike it lucky over a short-term period. The real test is whether profits are made over a statistically significant period, which frankly is a minimum of 1 year. Any service that only ever promotes results over any period less than this is in the game solely to attract losers and suckers. Their testimonials are all from short term members talking about a great day / week / start With most tipping websites, you will see testimonials from subscribers talking about having a good day, or week, or ‘start’ since the subscriber recently joined the service. Generally, this is simply because they don’t have long term members to provide testimonials about any long-term success. These websites simply aim to attract new suckers to their service each week to replace the ones who have quickly left. There is no clear Odds Recording Policy stated publicly All services like to talk about their results, but results are meaningless if the basis upon which they are calculated is not made clear upfront, before the results are recorded or claimed. An Odds Recording Policy ensures clarity for members and non-members alike to critically assess and compare each service’s performance. Importantly, if an Odds Recording Policy is not stated upfront, it allows the dodgy services to state “if you had done this” or “if you had bet this way” you would have achieved a certain result, when this information wasn’t provided before the tips were sent and hence no-one who followed the tips would have actually achieved the results. This is a trick that dodgy operators use to ‘backfit’ results, by saying if you had backed every horse at fixed odds, or at Best Tote/SP etc, then you would have achieved said results. The fact remains that no-one would have actually achieved those results, because there was no information given. Back-fitting usually results in the ‘system’ being exposed in the long run as non-profitable, leading the suckers who followed in a financial hole. There is no explanation of the betting bank required for the service ‘Unitised’ betting has become commonplace in the tipping industry. Many services now offer information on how many units to bet on the horse they are tipping. Many neglect to include the betting bank that’s required for the selections. This defies the whole point of unitised betting, which is designed to make clear how much you are investing to protect your betting bank and capital - a point missed by services who advise huge unit investments on their selections. In our experience, genuine services advise a 100-unit betting bank, and their average bet is usually somewhere between 0.5 to 2.0 units. However, we’ve seen some services advise members to bet 20, 30, 50 or even 100 units on their selections! This is a trick which they use in their marketing to then attempt to drown out all other tipping services, by shouting from the rooftops whenever they have a winning day, stating the enormous unit amounts won. When it comes to tipsters advising these huge units, we’ve never actually seen them make clear the total betting bank required. In our experience, the higher the average units advised to bet on a horse, the more dishonest the tipping service is. Results are unachievable Many services record their odds at unachievable prices, including the following tricks: • Odds only offered by one bookie in early betting markets • Odds only offered by a bookie which most punters are banned from • Odds recorded at the highest possible price achieved in the market, whether the horse firsm or drifts, with no advice given on how to back the selections (you know who!) • One of the worst services even records at the highest price out of of the highest fixed price when the tip is sent, or Best Tote, Top Fluc or Betfair SP (without deducting commissions), despite not offering any advice or guidance on when or how to bet. They then try and compare their unachievable results to the benchmark (us). Can you believe it? They have no social media profile, or no website Plenty of tipsters these days have no social media profile whatsoever, and either no website, or a very, plain, simple website that provides no educational information, insight, or updated daily results. This raises red flags quickly. The recorded results are not from when the service started publicly A good move is to check the histories of a tipster by looking for any inconsistencies online. You might be surprised what you find! If a service boasts it’s been around for a certain length of time, then the published results should reflect that entire period. If not, why? If someone has been running a tipping service for 5 years, but only shows 1 year's results, what happened to the rest of the results? It’s far too easy for tipsters to just delete prior losing periods from their results to make them look better overall. The tipsters have no public profile, or you’ve never heard of them If somebody is selling tips publicly, then it stands to reason they’ll have some level of public profile. The racing and punting community is very active online, and news of a solid tipster who is winning money for his clients travels quickly. If there’s no information at all to be found, then they might not have many (or any) clients. Why? Also see whether they are featured in any respected publiations or websites on podcasts, webinars or interviews. If not, it is hard to believe they are anything but a junior apprentice. Do you want to risk your money on that? The tips are based predominantly on ‘inside information’ “Inside info” is a funny thing. Yes, in isolation, a small piece of information about a horse that they like can be valuable for any punter. But those who claim they win long-term based on their access to “inside information” are generally being less than honest. The key question is, of course, where the “inside information” is coming from. Most people have been tipped into a horse by a trainer or other connection at some point, and sometimes it might come off! But logically, it can never be a long term winning solution. The structure of the horse racing industry means that no one person has “inside information” about every horse. To find winners, and find them at value, you need to be across the form of all the horses in a race. Simple tips like “horse x is going really, really well in trackwork” might be useful for that horse, but there might be up to 20 others in the race – how are they going? To win on the punt you need to have a very well formulated opinion on each horse’s chances of winning and hence how it should be priced. There’s only one basis for that: proper, educated form analysis.
Saturday, July 18, 2020
The Top 10 reasons why Winning Edge Investments is the #1 Tips & Ratings provider in Australia 1) Transparency of results recording We post our results daily on our Website, Twitter and Facebook – win or lose. And we have the most TRANSPARENT results spreadsheets in Australia. Our results spreadsheets contain not only the basics (race, track, horse selected, unit suggested, advised price, profit, units invested, POT%, ROI% etc). Some also show the EXACT time the bet was sent, so that anyone can check and cross reference the bet information times with the odds available and ensure every bet has been recorded accurately and fairly. No other service in Australia does this. Most importantly however, every bet is recorded from the day the service started, and we never remove results, or restart results each year for the same analyst like most other services. Take a look around. You will not find another service anywhere in Australia that has 8 years of results recorded and publicly displayed from its inception, starting from when members were actually paying for the service (not from when a service was free or non-public, and hence no-one can or did actually verify the results). What’s more, all results are updated and published on a DAILY basis so you can see the very latest official results and compare them with your own. Unlike other organisations, you won’t need to chase us because our results are out of date. No other tipping organisation in the WORLD proudly and transparently states its results every single day for each service, regardless of whether it wins or loses. Most services simply trumpet their winning days, and hide or ignore their losses. We post the daily and overall total results every betting day for every service, for all members and non-members alike, all based on our standardised and member approved Odds Recording Methodology. We also have many members who thoroughly review our daily posted results and advise if any errors have been made. This holds us to account to ensure our results are 100% accurate, something no other service can ensure. Now that’s REAL transparency. 2) A transparent and clear odds recording policy Every service at Winning Edge Investments has a clearly stated and transparent odds recording policy. In fact, all of our horse racing services utilise the exact same policy: the third-best fixed price available at the time of the bet release or any other clearly stated option such as BOB, Top Fluc, Betfair SP or Best Tote/SP. Additionally, the only available fixed prices we take into account are those from a select group of bookies who WILL actually take your bets. We’ve surveyed our members and asked them about this. They told us which bookies are weak and won’t take their bets, and we excluded them from our official results. This ensures clarity for members and non-members alike, allowing them to critically assess and compare each service’s performance. Importantly, this recording methodology is stated upfront, unlike most other services who make statements such as “if you had done this” or “if you had bet this way you would have achieved a certain result”, which is completely meaningless if the information wasn’t provided before the tips were sent. 3) Fairness and achievability of results Our odds recording policy is based upon member survey feedback of bookies used, and was then rolled out similarly across all of the other Winning Edge Investments services. We provide a clearly explained odds recording policy for each of our services upfront, unlike the vast majority of other services who simply record the best price achievable in the market - whether it’s a firmer or a drifter - which is entirely unrealistic and unattainable for any punter, making the results unreliable and baseless. Check out some of the member feedback received regarding the Odds Recording Policy: “Hi Dean. Wow, incredibly fair changes to the recording of odds. THE fairest from any racing/sports service that I've seen. The recording of the late/monitor bets may even be too harsh on your results. Potentially you could have a year where the official results show a breakeven but some members will be fairly happy with how the service performed. Or potentially a year where official results show a 100-unit profit but members are doing cartwheels with how well the year went. God forbid HRP ever records a 300-unit yearly profit under the new odds recording process you'll end up having members naming their first born Dean or Deanna!” The 3rd point you've noted for the reasoning behind the changes applies to me. In the past I've definitely been guilty of becoming frustrated at missing early prices and then seeing services spruik their 50-unit profit for the month when I know I'm only up 30 units for example. There may be racing/sports tipping services out there that show fantastic results, but I bet they won't have the same retention rate or reputation with punters as WEI. Punters aren't silly enough to hang around for too many months or years when a service boasts results that they continually can't come close to achieving themselves regardless of the lengths they go to in placing bets. Kind regards, Pat ------------------------------------------- Your new odds recording method is extraordinary. If you can somehow make 50 units per year with this method, you'll be doing very, very well indeed; it's very impressive. - Aaron ------------------------------------------- Seems very fair (your official results will drop a lot) - Alex ------------------------------------------- 4) We are genuinely profitable Our analysts are true experts in their field, prepared to back themselves with results recorded and uploaded daily to the website for public and member viewing. Most importantly however, our members win, as demonstrated in our surveys, and by our incredible member retention/resubscription rates. Just check out our industry leading results (all based on a 100-unit betting bank, with paying members, using a pre-stated clear and fair odds recording methodology): 5) We are real people Unlike most tips service providers, who hide behind their website in a veil of secrecy without a name, or behind computer programs, we are real people who put our names, faces and reputations against our services. Dean Evans (aka the Trial Spy) is a professional who has made his services public since the start of 2013. Dean was featured regularly on RSN racing radio for his innovative and revolutionary approach to form assessment, and has been featured on numerous webinars and podcasts as a leading authority in the racing world. In addition, Dean was independently ranked the Number 1 tipster on a public tipping website with thousands of professional, media and amateur tipsters. Dean is unquestionably Australia’s most respected and successful horse racing tips provider, having six years’ worth of verified results generating over $120,000 in profits on a $20,000 betting bank (1200 units profit on a 200 unit betting bank). Comprehensive benchmarking has confirmed that these combined results have been industry leading over this period in Australia, with no other single analyst having delivered such substantial, verifiable results for members. Full-time professional punter Cameron O'Brien was bred to be a pro punter, with his father responsible for the Victorian weight & class tables and ratings for Don Scott's classic book 'The Winning Way'. Not only does Cameron have a punting pedigree, he was also taught by some the best in the business. You can watch and listen to all of our professional punting analysts on our Winning Edge Investments YouTube and Podcast at the following links: Winning Edge Investments - YouTube Winning Edge Investments | Free Listening on SoundCloud Additionally: We’re all active on social media, where you can chat to us We’re all available on direct, personal email, should you wish to discuss anything to do with the service or want some information with your punting. 6) We provide a PROFIT GUARANTEE with every service As we fully back our tips and analysis: all of our services come with an iron clad Profit Guarantee for all Quarterly and Annual memberships. This means that if during your subscription period the service doesn’t show a profit using our conservative and easily achievable official odds recording methodology, then we will refund your next recurring payment, giving you the service at no cost. Note we do this regardless of previous performance. So, for example, if the service made an 100-unit profit in your first quarter as a member, and then makes a 1 unit loss in your next quarter as a member, you will still get your next quarterly membership refunded, despite making 99 units profit over the journey. What a deal! 7) We don’t just tip, we educate Firstly, we provide very clear betting information when the bets are sent, including selection, stake and price information. This is very different to many other ‘information’ services, who simply provide you with comments on multiple horses, either with no provided staking strategy, or with a suggestion of units, but no information on what betting bank the units are based upon (this is incredibly dangerous as most followers will over-bet and blow their bank as soon as a losing run occurs). With all of our services, we provide significant detail in order to allow members to place their bets quickly and accurately. Firstly, we provide the basics, such as the Track, Race Number, Race Time, Horse Number, Horse Name. Additionally, we also provide the third-best fixed price from selected bookies at the time the tip is sent, the suggested unit amount to invest on the horse, information on whether we believe the horse will firm or drift to provide members with accurate information upon which to base their wagering decisions, and a comment on why we believe the horse is a great investment. Other services pale in comparison, some of which provide as little information as the track, race number and horse number. Lastly, every member of each service receives a Member’s Information Pack which contains over 110 pages of very valuable educational information on how to bet successfully, professionally and profitably. This includes information on how to get the best possible odds, protect your betting accounts, and much, much more. We could sell this information independently for thousands of dollars, but it is absolutely free for all members of our services. 8) Our testimonials are from real, long-term members This is a big one. Check out this small sample of testimonials we have received: About Us - Winning Edge Investments Now check out the testimonials of some other horse racing tipping services. What do you notice? The big difference is that our members talk about the profits generated over a long-term period. That’s because we take care of our members, and offer very profitable services as well as the education needed for them to succeed. This is why we have member retention rates that are the envy of the industry. Our competition simply post testimonials from members talking about having a good day, or week, or ‘start’ since they signed up. This is because frankly, they don’t have long term members, and simply aim to attract new suckers to their service each week, to replace the ones who have left. Or they simply have no real track record at all. 9) We DO NOT receive affiliate commission payments from bookmakers based on your losses As you would likely expect, any website that advertises bookmakers on their site receives a payment for this. You would have seen the ads offering bonus bet incentives to sign up to the corporate bookie. What you may not know is that this is not a one-off marketing payment. What actually happens is the websites are paid lifetime commissions of anywhere between 20-40% on the LOSSES incurred by punters who signs up through their link. It’s called an affiliate agreement. The bookies pay them monthly. If the punter wins for the month, then there is no payment to the website. But if the punter loses for the month, the website receives 20-40% of those LOSSES. Forever – as long as the punter is using the account. Think about that for a minute. The world works on incentives. That’s why employees of companies are offered bonuses for achieving certain KPIs or objectives aligned with the businesses interests. So any website advertising corporate bookmakers is therefore INCENTIVISED for you to LOSE. Think about how free tips websites operate. Of course, they’re not doing it for free. Websites of any decent quality are very costly to build and maintain. Plus, in addition you must consider the time spent on the website by all of the people working to create the content. This is all funded by advertising corporate bookies. The problem is, they’re funded by losses, so there’s no incentive for these companies to turn you into a winning punter. Instead they provide you with ‘content’, ‘information’ and ‘education’ that’s designed to fool you into believing you have some edge over the market, but in reality is designed solely to encourage you to bet more, when really you are receiving information that will keep to trapped within the 98% of punters who lose long term. I should point out that there are some good free informational websites out there that provide plenty of information and data that helps to grow racing. However, one salient point is that all of the free information they provide is readily available to everyone, and is henceforth already ‘baked into the market’. What that means is there is little to no edge using this information to place bets, as the market has already considered all of this free information into the odds of the horses. You still have to beat the significant percentage take-outs of both the Totes and Corporate Bookies. The rapid production of all of this data and information hasn’t changed the simple fact that 98% of punters lose long-term. The worst offenders, however, are the paid tipping services who also advertise bookmaker affiliates on their websites. In this situation, they can’t lose. They get paid for the tips they provide, but then get paid far more should the tips lose. Again, the incentive is for the tips to lose, and once they have you as a customer having signed up to the bookmaker link, they receive 20-40% of your losses each month, even if you stop paying for their tips. Most people aren’t aware of this fact, making the whole situation quite unethical and unpalatable to many, including ourselves. It’s a scourge on the industry, and if the industry was regulated in the way Financial Services is, it wouldn’t be allowed to occur. At Winning Edge Investments, we do not offer bookmaker links or receive affiliate payments based on losses for this reason. That way, you can be 100% sure that our sole goal and motivation is for you to profit handsomely from following our information. If you don’t, then we don’t have a business! We are unlike 99% of other tipping services who will continue to flourish and receive substantial payments long after all of the people have stopped paying for their losing tips. 10) We don’t offer ‘Bronze’, ‘Silver’, ‘Gold’, ‘Emerald’, ‘Platinum’ services These are absolutely ridiculous. You know the ones where you pay a small fee for Bronze tips, but a larger fee for Platinum tips? So hang on, your Platinum tips are the best? Emerald tips a bit worse? Gold tips a bit worse? Silver tips a bit worse? And your bronze tips are the worst? But you want me to pay for them? Huh? 99% of punters lose. 99% of tipping services lose. Yet these companies think they can provide 5 different sets of tips, and all will profit? PLEASE! At Winning Edge Investments, each of our services is only the best and most profitable tips from the Full Time Professional Punter or Expert Analyst based on their niche focus on interest, whether it’s a certain state (e.g. WA Tips & Ratings), or a certain type of form analysis (e.g. Trial Spy or Speed Stars). BONUSES) Surprise Bonuses for Members. Members are also treated to whole host of special bonuses, including loyalty bonus credits, refer a friend arrangements and special insider discounts on new services. We look after our loyal, valued clients!
Monday, July 6, 2020
How minimum bet laws work is that the amount of profit you can make is after the stake is returned to you. This is somewhat like the old days of fractional odds so for example, if a horse is $5 and the limit is $2,000 you can place a $500 fixed odds bet on that horse to win $2,500 where $500 is your original stake and $2,000 is your profit. The laws are as follows: “Approved Australian off-course wagering operators are required to lay the odds displayed for fixed odds bets after 9:00am on race-day for thoroughbred day meetings or 2:00pm on race-day for thoroughbred night meetings to the limits below” (9am onwards for all meetings in QLD and the ACT) Minimum Bet Limits Rules Provided the wagering service provider’s annual turnover is over $5m, bookmakers must not: Refuse to accept a fixed odds bet. Close a person’s account. Refuse to open a person’s account. Place any restrictions on a person’s account. Refuse to lay a fixed odds bet to any person when those fixed odds are publicly displayed. Laying lesser odds to a person than those publicly displayed. Perform any other act or refuse to do an act in order to avoid these provisions. Racing NSW Minimum Bet Limits The key points of the minimum bet limit conditions are as follows: Wagering operators are not to take actions such as closing a punter’s accounts, refusing to open a punter’s account or placing restrictions on a punter’s account solely to avoid complying with the minimum bet limit conditions. However, wagering operators are still able to take such actions for legitimate reasons including undisclosed bowlers (persons betting on behalf of other persons), responsible gambling, fraudulent activity, money-laundering and other integrity related reasons such as the punter being warned off or disqualified. Wagering operators are required to lay the odds displayed for fixed odds bets to the limits below. The minimum bet limit has been set at levels which are considered to be fair and balanced. Those levels were requested by most punters (although some professional punters requested higher levels) yet are still higher than what was requested by most wagering operators. For Australian Wagering Operators with Net Assessable Turnover on NSW Thoroughbred races greater than or equal to $5 million Metropolitan NSW Thoroughbred races Wagering operator to lose a minimum $2,000 (*place component $800) Non-Metropolitan NSW Thoroughbred races Wagering operator to lose a minimum $1,000 (*place component $400) For Australian Wagering Operators with Net Assessable Turnover on NSW Thoroughbred Races less than $5 million All NSW Thoroughbred races Wagering operator to lose a minimum $1,000 (*place component $400) For further information, FAQs and complaint processes, visit: HARNESS & GREYHOUNDS For NSW Harness events, the following minimum bet levels will be applicable for wagers made via account, after 10.00am AEST or AEDT (whichever is applicable) on race-day:- Podcast Alert: Listen Cameron O'Brien as he discuss his background in racing and punting Metropolitan NSW Harness races $1,000 Non-Metropolitan NSW Harness races $500 All NSW Harness races at that Platinum Race Meeting $2,000 For New South Wales Greyhound events, the following minimum bet levels will be applicable for wagers made via account, from within two hours prior to the scheduled start time of the opening race of the meeting / race programme: Metropolitan NSW Greyhound races – Group 1 Final Field Races and Million Dollar Chase Final $2,000 (*Place component $1,000) Metropolitan NSW Greyhound races – All other races $750 (*Place component $375) Non-metropolitan NSW Greyhound races $500 (*Place component $250) Racing Victoria Minimum Bet Limits Racing Victoria (RV) has implemented a Minimum Bet Limit (MBL) policy that will apply to approved Wagering Service Providers (WSPs) betting on Victorian thoroughbred races from 1 October 2016. RV announced in May 2016 its intention to implement an MBL before undertaking comprehensive stakeholder consultation to determine the most appropriate framework. Responses were received from 480 stakeholders including punters, WSPs, industry participants, media and regulators. While each segment offered tailored views, there was a fundamental acceptance of the MBL framework implemented by Racing NSW in 2014 and a desire that this be matched by RV for consistency. Having considered the feedback, RV has determined that its MBL will largely mirror that currently offered to punters wagering on NSW thoroughbred races. The MBL on Victorian thoroughbred races will apply from 9am (AET) raceday for day meetings and 2pm (AET) raceday for night meetings and allow punters to win up to $2000 on any one metropolitan win bet and $1000 on any one non-metropolitan win bet. Betting Limits: Approved WSPs will be required to accept a fixed odds bet at odds which are publicly displayed by the approved WSP for any Victorian thoroughbred race to the maximum amount specified as follows: Metropolitan Victorian Thoroughbred: In any one Win, Win/Place or Each-way bet: to lose $2000 In any one Place bet: to lose $800 Non-metropolitan Victorian Thoroughbred: In any one Win, Win/Place or Each-way bet: to lose $1000 In any one Place bet: to lose $400 An approved WSP must not do any act or refuse to do any act to avoid complying with the bet limits, including but not limited to: Refusing to accept a fixed odds bet Closing a person’s account Refusing to open a person’s account Placing any restrictions on a person’s account in relation to Victorian thoroughbred racing product Refusing to lay fixed odds to any person when those fixed odds are publicly displayed Laying lesser odds to a person than those publicly displayed Any other act or refusal to do an act in order to avoid these provisions For further information, FAQs and complaint processes, visit: GREYHOUNDS METRO: Bet to win $750 NON-METRO Bet to win $500 Bet can only be placed within two hours of the first race of the meeting and up until start time of the race. Read more here: HARNESS METRO: Bet to win $1000 NON-METRO Bet to win $500 Operators must publish fixed odds on Victorian harness racing fields no later than one 1 hour prior to each race. Read more here: Racing Queensland Minimum Bet Limits Racing Queensland has implemented Minimum Bet Limits after consultation with wagering operators, stakeholders and other Principal Racing Authorities. Off-course wagering operators are required to accept a fixed odds bet at odds that are publicly displayed, up to the maximum amounts for the wagering operator to lose. The maximum amounts vary depending on the turnover of the wagering operator and the type of race (e.g. metropolitan or non-metropolitan). Minimum Bet Limits apply: to Queensland Thoroughbred races only; to fixed odds bets (i.e. win, place and each way bets); from 9am (AEST) on the day of the Thoroughbred race, for a race meeting commencing prior to 5:30pm; and from 2pm (AEST) on the day of the Thoroughbred race, for a race meeting commencing after 5:30pm. Metropolitan Queensland racing: In any one Win, Win/Place or Each-way bet: to lose $2000 In any one Place bet: to lose $800 Non-metropolitan Queensland racing: In any one Win, Win/Place or Each-way bet: to lose $1000 In any one Place bet: to lose $400 For further information, FAQs and complaint processes, visit: HARNESS & GREYHOUNDS No minimum bet law applies Other States Minimum Bet Limits SOUTH AUSTRALIA MBL’s start at 9am raceday for daily meets and 2pm for night meets. METRO: Bet to win $2000 ($800 place component) NON-METRO: Bet to win $1000 ($400 place component) TASMANIA MBL’s start at 9am raceday for daily meets and 2pm for night meets. ALL THOROUGHBRED RACING Bet to win $1000 ACT MBL’s start at 9am raceday for daily meets and 2pm for night meets. BLACK OPAL STAKES MEETING: Bet to win $2,000 ($800 place component) ALL OTHER THOROUGHBRED RACING $1,000 ($400 place component) WESTERN AUSTRALIA No minimum bet law applies HARNESS & GREYHOUNDS For South Australia, Tasmania, ACT & Western Australia, no minimum bet law applies currently for Harness or Greyhound Racing Connect with us!
Thursday, June 18, 2020
Quaddies & Exotics Exotics are something our analysts avoid for the most part. But at some tracks or circumstances the edge is so large and market often so incorrect that quaddies (quadrellas) and trifectas/first fours are warranted. During the very major Spring Carnival days when there are big jackpots, some analysts may also play exotics. But for the most part they are a small proportion of the bets advised by our services. In terms of the best bookies to place exotics with, the best is probably Bet365 as they offer Mid Tote + 5%. We do not include Bet365 results in our official results because many are banned from them, but they are the best if you have an account with them. Even after Bet365 restrict you on win bets, they often still allow you to place all exotics type bets (exactas, trifectas, first fours, quaddies etc), so it's worth using them for that even if it doesn't cover your full investment, and place the rest elsewhere. One thing to note though is on some smaller meetings, Ubet (QLD Tab) don't offer the quaddie. In those cases, Bet365 will pay the lower of NSW/VIC. Therefore, in those cases, you are better taking a quaddie through a corporate only selecting one tote (NSW or VIC) as that way at least you have a 50/50 chance of getting the top tote price. Most other bookies offer one tote, which means mathematically 1/3 of the time you'll receive best tote, 1/3 of the time you'll receive mid tote and 1/3 of the time you'll receive lowest tote. All bets are officially recorded at mid tote for simplicity, fairness and easy achievability. All of the above goes for all exotics; quaddies, exactas, trifectas and first fours etc. Finally, DO NOT PLACE EXOTICS directly with any TAB (NSW Tab / Vic Tab / Ubet). If you bet through a corporate bookie, generally they do not actually bet back into the TAB pools. This means you do not reduce your dividend. If you bet directly into a TAB (NSW Tab, Vic Tab or Ubet), all you do is reduce the overall dividend for yourself and everyone else. So always bet exotics through a corporate bookie. When a $20,000 quaddie was struck for Dean’s Tips, if you multiplied the mid tote win odds of the 4 winners, it added up to nearly $50,000. That's just a simple way of estimating a quaddie dividend, but it is likely that our payout was less potentially due to some members betting directly through the totes rather than through a corporate bookie.